Registered Voters

Bush 45
Kerry 46

LikelyVoters

Bush 48
Kerry 45

Registered Voters

Bush 46
Kerry 48

LikelyVoters

Bush 49
Kerry 47

Likely Voters

Bush 48
Kerry 47

Two days to go and the race for the White House remains excruciatingly close. To this point, the bin Laden video has had no measurable impact on the race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.1% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.1%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When leaners are included, it's Bush 48.8% Kerry 48.2%. Other candidates attract 1.2% and 1.8% are not sure (half of those who are not sure probably won't vote).

Election 2004 has been amazingly stable and close. Senator Kerry has been ahead on just one day since August 23 but the President's "lead" has typically been just one or two points. That has continued into the final weekend of the campaign.

The tight race goes back even further. Our first full polling sample completed after Senator Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday found the candidates just half-a-point apart (at that time Kerry 45.8% to Bush 45.3%). Eight months and hundreds of millions of campaign dollars later, it's still too close to call.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 11:39 PM | | Basie! Home

Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters. Among the 73 percent who said they definitely would vote on Tuesday, Kerry and Bush are tied.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:57 AM | | Basie! Home

Hooley to appear in '60 Minutes' segment about troops

Hooley has spent time working on legislation to improve communication and cooperation among full-time Army personnel and Reserve and Guard units, and she has met several times with soldiers and their families to discuss issues.

Hooley and Byrne were filmed in September by a CBS crew while traveling to visit Oregon National Guard soldiers on medical hold at Fort Hood, Texas.

Hooley also was interviewed in her Washington, D.C., office for the report.

Tonight's "60 Minutes" segment will include interviews with U.S. troops, including National Guard troops, regarding improvised explosive devices, insurgent attacks and the shortage of armor and other protective gear.

Hooley is seeking a fifth term in Congress as the representative for Oregon's 5th Congressional District.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:50 AM | | Basie! Home

Registered Voters

Bush 45
Kerry 47

Likely Voters

Bush 46
Kerry 47

Likely Voters with leaners

Bush 48
Kerry 48

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:41 AM | | Basie! Home

There is a good deal of nail biting going on at the mostly picture-perfect campaign rallies held for President Bush.

Terry Buck, a first-grade teacher from Cleveland, feels the nervousness. So does Jim Nichols, a municipal purchasing officer from Saginaw, Mich. Both turned up this week at big events for the president near their homes. While they cheered endlessly, they also fretted some.

Ms. Buck and Mr. Nichols say the election is much too close. Mr. Bush should be trouncing Senator John Kerry. Something is not quite right, and like many of their fellow Republicans, they share the belief that the news media has played a role by skewing coverage in Mr. Kerry's favor.

For unsettled Republican voters in battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire, the last leg of the presidential contest has at times been more of a group therapy session than a victory march.

[...]

There is certainly no panic, Mr. Nichols says. Mr. Bush's supporters believe in him too much for that. Some of the loudest ovations come when the president predicts, as he almost always does in his speeches, "a great victory on Nov. 2."

But for every measure of hope there is some measure of anxiety gnawing at the adoring crowds that are shadowing the president the last days of his re-election campaign.

"I haven't talked to anybody who is not concerned," said Mr. Nichols, who took a day's vacation on Thursday to see the president at a hockey rink in Saginaw. "I think it is closer than it should be."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:25 PM | | Basie! Home

• In an election for President in NV today, George W Bush & John Kerry tie at 49%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 535 likely voters conducted 10/28 - 10/29.
  
• 2 wks ago, Bush led by 7 in NV. Since then, Kerry is up 4, Bush is down 3. In 6 identical tracking polls over 3 months, Kerry has led only once, on 7/23.
  
• Half of those in today's likely voter pool have already voted. Of them, Kerry leads 50% to 48%. Of those who have not yet voted, but SurveyUSA believes will vote on Election Day, Bush leads 50% to 47%. When the 2 groups are combined, it's a tie.
  
• Bush leads by 10 among white voters. Minority turnout will decide who carries state.

• In an election for president in VA today, 3 days to the vote, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 51% to 47%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 606 likely voters 10/27-10/29.
  
• In 5 tracking polls since July, Bush has led by 4 pts 3 times, led by 5 pts once, & only led by 11 once, at peak of Swift-Boat controversy. In 2000, bush won VA by 8.
  
• Kerry leads by 10 pts in NE VA, leads by 2 in SE VA. Bush leads by 9 in central VA, leads by 21 in the Shenandoah. Kerry up 19 in urban VA, Bush up 10 in suburban VA.
  
• Bush up 20 among whites, Kerry up 58 among blacks. Bush holds 94% of GOP base. Kerry holds 93% of Democrat base. Independents break for Kerry 51% to 45%.

• In an election for president in NJ today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 54% to 42%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 794 likely voters conducted 10/27 - 10/29.
  6 wks ago, during peak of Swift-Boat campaign, Bush led in NJ by 4. 4 wks ago, Kerry led by 5. 2 wks ago, Kerry led by 8. At the wire, 72 hrs to go, Kerry leads by 12.
  
• Kerry leads by 43 pts among those earning < $40k/yr. Bush & Kerry tie among those earning > $80k/yr. Kerry leads by 43 in urban NJ. Kerry leads by 10 in suburban NJ.
  
• Bush leads by 2 among whites. Kerry leads by 63 among blacks. Kerry up 6 among males, up 19 among females. Kerry up 29 among youngest voters. Up 5 among oldest voters.

• In an election for President in MD today, 3 days to the vote, John Kerry beats George W Bush 54% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 607 likely voters 10/27-10/29.
  
• 6 wks ago, at peak of Swift-Boat controversy, Bush & Kerry were tied in MD. 3 wks ago, Kerry led by 15. At the finish line, Kerry leads by 11. 10 electoral votes blue.
  
• Bush leads by 13 pts among white voters. Kerry leads by 73 pts among black voters.
  
• Kerry leads by 30 among most educated voters. Bush & Kerry tie among least educated.
  
• Bush leads by 3 among those who attend church regularly. Kerry leads by 25 among those who attend church rarely. 76% of pro-life voters back Bush. 71% of pro-choice voters back Kerry. Kerry leads by 18 pts among independents & by 20 among moderates.

• In an election today in Indiana, George W Bush defeats John Kerry, GOP challenger Mitch Daniels unseats Dem incumbent Joe Kernan for Governor, & incumbent Dem Senator Evan Bayh tops GOP Marvin Scott, according to SurveyUSA poll of 589 LV 10/27 - 10/29.
  
• Bush defeats Kerry by 19 today, 58% to 39%, gets 11 ECV. Bush won by 16 in 2000.
  
• Bayh defeats Scott by 27 today, 61% to 34%. 41% of Bush voters split ticket for Bayh.
  
• 3 wks ago, in identical tracking poll, Daniels & Kernan were effectively tied. Since then, daniels is up 4 to 52%, Kernan is down 3 to 44%. 8-pt GOP lead, 72 hrs to go.
  
• Daniels leads by 1 in northern IN, by 2 in central IN, by 11 in southern INn, by 20 in greater Indianapolis. Kernan wins urban IN by 3. Daniels wins suburban in by 14.

• In an election today in Illinois, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 54% to 42% & Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican Alan Keyes for U.S. Senate 66% to 27%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 665 likely voters conducted 10/27 - 10/29.
  
• 72 hrs till polls open, Kerry is up by 12 pts. Gore won the state by 12 pts in 2000.
  
• Kerry leads by 2 pts among men, but by 21 pts among women. Bush leads by 4 among whites, Kerry leads 6:1 among blacks. Bush holds 92% of GOP base. Kerry holds 91% of Democrat base. Independents break 48% to 43% for Kerry. Kerry wins the city of Chicago by 59 pts & suburban Cook by 18 pts. Bush wins collar counties by 24 pts & edges Kerry downstate by 1 pt. Statewide, suburban IL goes 49% to 47% for Bush.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:59 PM | | Basie! Home

“The administration's use of the term ‘conservative' to describe itself is Orwellian because it's exactly the opposite of what ‘conservative' means . The administration is not conservative. It's radical...”

Bush engineered “a radical rollback of environmental policy” compared to previous Republican administrations. “The administration has declared war on the environment.”

“I always thought of the Republicans as the party of fiscal responsibility, but my party has lost its moorings .”

Bush's tax cuts exhibit “fiscal recklessness” which is “almost criminal.” “What are we leaving to our children? We're slipping them a huge check for our free lunch."

The administration's “obsessive” secrecy makes it “worse than Watergate,” having “stonewalled” the 9/11 commission, “pulled back from the press,” and blocked the release of presidential records and unfavorable reports.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:55 PM | | Basie! Home

Many more than 1 million Oregonians had returned their mail ballots by Friday -- more than one-half the state's registered voters -- in a pace that is outstripping that of the presidential race four years ago.

The secretary of state's office reported that counties had received almost 1.1 million ballots through Thursday, from 51 percent of registered voters.

With a record 2.15 million Oregonians registered to vote, that meant county election workers were coping with 370,000 more ballots than had stacked up at the same stage four years ago.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:49 PM | | Basie! Home

1,500 Registered Voters; MoE of +/- 2.5%

Bush 48%
Kerry 49%

1,258 Likely Voters; MoE of +/- 2.8%

Bush 48%
Kerry 49%

2,832 Registered Voters with leaners; MoE of +/- 3%

Bush 47%
Kerry 48%

2,347 Likely Voters with leaners; MoE of +/- 3%

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%

979 Likely Voters; MoE of +/- 3.5%

Bush 45%
Kerry 44%

1400 Registered Voters; MoE of +/- 3%

Bush 46%
Kerry 46%

1200 Likely Voters; MoE of +/- 3%

Bush 47%
Kerry 45%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:18 PM | | Basie! Home

Three days to go and the race for the White House is getting even closer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 47.9% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.1%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When leaners are included, it's Bush 48.8% Kerry 48.3. Other candidates attract 1.0% and 1.9% are not sure (half of those who are not sure probably won't vote).

Today, the President's Job Approval fell to 50%. That's the first time since the Republican National Convention it has been below the 51% mark.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:11 AM | | Basie! Home

Which of these two statements sounds like it comes from the stronger leader?

John Kerry: In response to this tape from Osama bin Laden, let me make it clear, crystal clear. As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists. They are barbarians. And I will stop at absolutely nothing to hunt down, capture or kill the terrorists wherever they are, whatever it takes. Period.

George W. Bush: Earlier today I was informed of the tape that is now being analyzed by America's intelligence community. Let me make this very clear: Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this. I also want to say to the American people that we're at war with these terrorists and I am confident that we will prevail.

You decide ...

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:05 AM | | Basie! Home

But apparently unknown at the time to Smith and other GOP officials, it soon began to emerge that some of those cards -- the number is not known -- were signed by young people who were deceived into registering as a Republican, or who may have registered as an independent or a Democrat and then had the registration switched to Republican by someone else before the card was turned in.

The registration forms were valid and newly registered voters received ballots. But some of them were the product of deceptive tactics, used on several college and university campuses around the state, by canvassers working for Sproul & Associates, a Phoenix, Ariz.-based company that was hired by the Republican National Committee to boost GOP registration in Oregon and several other states.

In interviews, students at Mt. Hood and Chemeketa community colleges, Western Oregon University and the University of Oregon, all told similar stories: They were approached on campus and asked to sign a petition, often urging lower automobile insurance rates for students, and then asked to sign or initial a second document, which turned out to be a voter registration card.

Many of the students were urged to mark Republican as their party affiliation; others were told to leave the party affiliation section blank but to put their initials next to Republican on that part of the form.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:00 AM | | Basie! Home

U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay has coasted to easy wins in recent elections, but this year he is running hard as his once-ascendant political career has hit a rough patch.

In contrast to past campaigns, the powerful Republican from Texas is pounding the pavement of his suburban Houston district, going house to house in search of votes, and flooding local television with campaign ads.

He stunned a local high school debate club recently when he showed up unannounced at its candidates' forum and, perhaps most surprisingly, is attacking Democratic opponent Richard Morrison, a political novice given little chance of winning.

"How liberal is he?" a DeLay advertisement asks about Morrison. "He campaigned with Howard Dean and supports radical Michael Moore's campaign to defeat President Bush."

DeLay has represented his district since 1984 and is accustomed to rolling up big victories. He got 60 percent of the vote in 2000 and 63 percent two years ago.

He is expected to win again this year, but not as handily as in the past.

"I think at the end of the day, Tom DeLay will win. But his margin of victory will be much smaller than usual," said St. Thomas University political scientist Jean-Philippe Faletta.

Based on some polls, there is a possibility DeLay could get less than 50 percent of the vote because the ballot also includes a strong independent candidate and a Libertarian.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:48 AM | | Basie! Home

President Bush lost one point and his Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry, held steady at 47%, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll data this evening has leaners factored into the overall results. The telephone poll of 1209 likely voters was conducted from Wednesday through Friday (October 27-29, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: “Kerry is up by one in this see-saw battle for the White House. Kerry leads by 11 in the Blue States, while Bush leads by 9 in the Red States.”

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:44 AM | | Basie! Home

The addition of tonight's polls to current state data puts Kerry in strong position to take the election. To varying degrees, he appears to have a firmer grip on Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He has a good shot at Iowa and an excellent shot at Florida. Michigan could be a problem, but the evidence for a Kerry win in Florida is much better than the evidence for a Bush win in Michigan, and the payoff is bigger. Maybe the Bin Laden video can put the president back on top.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:55 PM | | Basie! Home

Gov. Mark R. Warner urged fellow Democrats at an Alexandria rally yesterday to "Turn Virginia blue!" on Tuesday as they prepared for a weekend of get-out-the-vote efforts in the Northern Virginia suburbs.

"Every vote is going to count," Warner told supporters and local politicians at the soggy rally in Market Square. "What we see here today all over Virginia is incredible enthusiasm, record voter registration. Now it's down to crunch time. We just need to make sure we get out the vote."

Republicans are planning their own rally in Northern Virginia today at 8:30 a.m. at an Interstate Van Lines parking lot in Springfield. U.S. Sen. John W. Warner, Reps. Frank R. Wolf and Thomas M. Davis III and Attorney General Jerry W. Kilgore are scheduled to attend.

"I'm predicting this: I think we could surprise a lot of people," Warner said.

Democrats said they were buoyed by the fact that the party's national committee decided to spend an additional $50,000 on radio ads in the waning days of the Virginia contest.

"They don't waste money," said Susan B. Kellom, the chair of the Alexandria Democratic Committee. "To me, that's the most positive sign in the world."

Warner conceded that that $50,000 was a "relatively small amount" compared with other states, but "people in Virginia have been working really hard and there is great energy. I think they wanted to reinforce that."

Republicans noted that most statewide polls taken within the past month show President Bush with a lead of 3 to 6 percentage points over Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.).

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:12 PM | | Basie! Home

A Republican Senate candidate from Oklahoma who has run into trouble over verbal gaffes was drawing fire again on Friday for saying black men have a "genetic predisposition" for a lower life expectancy than whites.

Dr. Tom Coburn, a Republican physician locked in a neck-and-neck struggle for a pivotal U.S. Senate seat, made the comment in a discussion of Social Security privatization during a locally televised debate on Wednesday night.

Coburn said black males were statistically more likely to die before they could benefit from Social Security.

"What kind of plan is that, that we are going to take from those who have a genetic predisposition of less life expectancy, that we are going to steal from those and give it to somebody else?" Coburn asked on Wednesday.

Oklahoma is solidly Republican, but Coburn's largely self-inflicted political wounds have let his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Brad Carson, gain a narrow lead in surveys of likely voters.

Carson brushed aside Coburn's remark during the debate, but black politicians in Oklahoma blasted Coburn on Friday.

Angela Monson, a Democratic state representative from Oklahoma City, said the suggestion that blacks are genetically inferior was "bizarre."

"I think he was so bent on pushing the privatization of Social Security that he took this leap," she said. "A leap off the deep end."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:26 PM | | Basie! Home

As someone who worked with you daily for 12 years as a United States Senator, I am acutely conscious of the fact that we disagree on many important issues. Despite our differences, you have always been willing to engage in constructive debate in an effort to forge sound public policy.

I deeply respect your commitment to our nation and your patriotism which, I believe, was forged when you-like I-proudly wore the uniform of the United States Navy in Viet Nam...

Because of the courage and character you demonstrated in Vietnam, I believe you when you say that you'll do a better job than President Bush to win the peace in Iraq, as well as to win the war against terrorism.

President Bush has failed to restrain federal spending, sending our deficit spinning into the stratosphere. I well remember that you were one of a handful of Democrats who crossed the aisle to forge a bipartisan coalition in the Senate to balance the federal budget [...]

John, for each of these reasons I believe President Bush has failed our country and my party. Accordingly, I want you to know that when I go into the booth next Tuesday I am going to cast my vote for you. So will my wife, Mary Jo, and all three of my children: Jason, Bobby and Jenny.

Moreover, I will do all that I can to encourage my friends in New Hampshire and Florida to join me in supporting you.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:07 PM | | Basie! Home

President Bush lost one point and Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry gained a point resulting in a tie at 47% apiece, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll data this evening has leaners factored into the overall results. The telephone poll of 1203 likely voters was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday (October 26-28, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "The election is four days away and we are right back where we started, in a toss- up."

Three-Man Race (with leaners)

Bush 47
Kerry 47
Nader 2

Two-Man Race

Bush 45
Kerry 45

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:48 AM | | Basie! Home

With ballots pouring into election offices around the state at a faster clip than four years ago, Secretary of State Bill Bradbury predicted Thursday that Oregon voter turnout for Tuesday's general election will reach 84 percent.

If so, it would be the highest percentage in 10 years, but not a record. The 1960 presidential contest between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon holds that distinction with 86.5 percent. However, with an 84 percent turnout, the number of votes cast would be the highest ever.

Bradbury made his prediction as workers in Multnomah and Clackamas counties joined other counties in opening ballots to prepare them for counting under the close watch of party observers.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:35 AM | | Basie! Home

A new KATU News and Oregonian poll is showing that Senator Kerry is extending his lead over President Bush in Oregon.

The exclusive poll shows Kerry with support from 49 percent of likely voters compared with the President's 43 percent with 8 percent undecided.

The gap between the two men has grown since Hibbitt's last poll in September where Kerry held a narrow lead of 2 points.

KATU Political Analyst Tim Hibbitts says the numbers are more solid than the ones from September because 45 percent of eligible voters have already turned in their ballot. [emphasis added]

Right 37%
Wrong 54%

Excellent 4%
Pretty good 55%
Not too good 14%
Poor 14%

Democrat Bill Bradbury (i) 54%
Republican Betsy Close 31%
Libertarian Richard Morley 2%

Yes 34%
No 56%

Yes 35%
No 48%

Yes 49%
No 41%

Yes 50%
No 46%

Yes 44%
No 40%

Yes 30%
No 54%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:36 AM | | Basie! Home

A Texas energy company may get rights to drill in a pristine swathe of a New Mexico national forest after a White House task force intervened on its behalf, a move that has become a hot issue in the battleground state before next week's presidential election. . . .

The move has sparked an uproar in New Mexico, a swing state in the presidential election. "The Bush administration has allowed oil and gas interests to put the Valle Vidal development request on a fast track," said Joanna Prukop, New Mexico's secretary of energy, minerals and natural resources. . . .

The White House Task Force on Energy Project Streamlining was created in 2001
with the aim of searching for new sources of energy.

The Bush administration has been pushing for changes to policies on federal lands that would allow for greater use of them by commercial interests, such as oil companies -- much to the anguish of conservationists.

New Mexico is one of the leading natural-gas producing states in the country and proceeds from the energy industry play a key part of the state's finances. The issue
has turned some New Mexico Republicans who want to see Valle Vidal preserved for hunting and camping against the Bush administration. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Democrat who was secretary of energy under President Bill Clinton, has vowed to fight any efforts at drilling. . . .

Valle Vidal, which means "valley of life" in Spanish, is home to the largest Boy Scouts of America camp and was originally donated by oil company Pennzoil, which has ceased to exist due to a series of mergers and buyouts. It gave the land in exchange for a tax deduction and part of the deal called for the land to be protected.

Link.

Posted by: Jimbo / 11:36 PM | | Basie! Home

This afternoon on CNN's "Inside Politics", anchor Judy Woodruff said the following to Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman:

Let me ask you the same question I asked [Kerry aide] Tad Devine a little while ago. The polls shifting back and forth in these battleground states. Take a deep breath. No spin. Tell me, how does George Bush get to 270 next Tuesday?

Earth to Judy: Spinning is the only reason he's there. Do you think Mehlman is on the show as a public service? That if you just ask him nicely, he'll offer an honest assessment of the state of the race?

Of course not. Woodruff knows as well as anyone that he won't comply with her request. But cable news hosts like Woodruff are increasingly in a bind: The campaigns' spinning has become so blatant that reporters now know they need to indicate to viewers that they're aware of it. That's why those half-joking on-air pleas by anchors for their guests not to spin are becoming increasingly common.

The logical next step would be to conclude that, since they're going to spin anyway, there's little news value in asking campaign spokespeople for their take on the race. Accepting that fact would leave most cable news shows without much to put on the air every day. They'd have to cancel "Crossfire," for starters. (Hey, we can dream.)

In the meantime, if Judy Woodruff is going to keep asking campaign aides for their take on the race, we wish she'd drop the pretense that she expects to get an honest answer.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:43 PM | | Basie! Home

A top state Republican called Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo "limp-wristed," and another GOP state legislator said she questions whether "the word 'man' applies to him" in speeches during Sen. Jim Bunning's campaign bus tour yesterday.

Both state Senate President David Williams of Burkesville and state Sen. Elizabeth Tori of Radcliff denied they intended to raise questions about Mongiardo's sexual orientation -- though Tori later said that if any listeners thought she was referring to his sexuality, "so be it."

After being told of the comments, Mongiardo's campaign manager said Bunning and his allies are running "a gutter campaign, a campaign of sleaze and smear."

The incumbent Republican's re-election drive is "on the ropes," said Kim Geveden, during Mongiardo's own bus tour in Eastern Kentucky.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:17 PM | | Basie! Home

The Herald poll shows Sen. John Kerry winning Miami-Dade County with 54.3 percent of the vote to 41.5 for Bush. Four percent are undecided.

Splitting those undecided voters down the middle, Kerry goes to 56 percent, Bush to 43 and Ralph Nader will end up with less than 1 percent.

If Kerry wins Miami-Dade County 56 to 43, then the likelihood of him winning Florida is very high. Here's why:

In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by almost 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade County.

According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes.

Overall, Hispanics -- both Cubans and non-Cubans -- still support Bush, according to the Herald poll, with 62 percent saying they will vote for the president and 35 percent saying they will vote for Kerry.

Nevertheless, that is a tremendous improvement for the Democrats over 2000, when 73 percent of Hispanics favored Bush and only 27 percent voted for Gore.

And almost all of those gains for Kerry have come from Mexicans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Colombians and Puerto Ricans among others. Many of whom are going to be voting for the first time.

The raw numbers: In 2000, Bush won among all Hispanics by 135,000 votes. Based on the Herald poll, Bush's lead among Hispanics in 2004 will be closer to 95,000 votes.

Narrowing that gap by 40,000 votes between 2000 and 2004 is a huge accomplishment for Democrats and shows the very real impact voter registration groups such as Mi Familia are having on this year's election. In six months, Mi Familia registered 66,000 new voters in Florida, many of them here in Miami-Dade and most of them non-Cuban Hispanics.

The New Democrat Network, the Service Employees International Union and the Environmental Action Fund, are spending

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:15 PM | | Basie! Home

Bush 47%
Kerry 48%

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:23 PM | | Basie! Home

The FBI has begun investigating whether the Pentagon improperly awarded no-bid contracts to Halliburton Co., seeking an interview with a top Army contracting officer and collecting documents from several government offices.

The line of inquiry expands an earlier FBI investigation into whether Halliburton overcharged taxpayers for fuel in Iraq, and it elevates to a criminal matter the election-year question of whether the Bush administration showed favoritism to Vice President Dick Cheney's former company.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:19 PM | | Basie! Home

YOU might have thought that, three years after a devastating terrorist attack on American soil, a period which has featured two wars, radical political and economic legislation, and an adjustment to one of the biggest stockmarket crashes in history, the campaign for the presidency would be an especially elevated and notable affair. If so, you would be wrong. This year's battle has been between two deeply flawed men: George Bush, who has been a radical, transforming president but who has never seemed truly up to the job, let alone his own ambitions for it; and John Kerry, who often seems to have made up his mind conclusively about something only once, and that was 30 years ago. But on November 2nd, Americans must make their choice, as must The Economist. It is far from an easy call, especially against the backdrop of a turbulent, dangerous world. But, on balance, our instinct is towards change rather than continuity: Mr Kerry, not Mr Bush.

Whenever we express a view of that sort, some readers are bound to protest that we, as a publication based in London, should not be poking our noses in other people's politics. Translated, this invariably means that protesters disagree with our choice. It may also, however, reflect a lack of awareness about our readership. The Economist's weekly sales in the United States are about 450,000 copies, which is three times our British sale and roughly 45% of our worldwide total. All those American readers will now be pondering how to vote, or indeed whether to. Thus, as at every presidential election since 1980, we hope it may be useful for us to say how we would think about our vote—if we had one.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:32 PM | | Basie! Home

Thanks for the memories, George and Dick, John and John.

We'll miss you, Laura and Teresa. And all of you movie stars, rock singers and other surrogates who spent months traveling to Oregon trying to get us to vote for either George Bush or John Kerry, along with their running mates, Dick Cheney and John Edwards.

Those visits have come to a halt, along with a drop in the volume of television ads trying to influence Oregonians' vote in the presidential election.

With less than a week to go in the race, the candidates' and the political world's attention are focused on the tossup states with the richest caches of Electoral College votes: Florida, Pennsylvania, along with a handful of upper Midwest and East Coast states, and Hawaii.

Oregon has fallen off the map of battleground states, as several polls have shown the Democratic ticket of Kerry-Edwards likely to prevail when voting ends and counting begins on Tuesday.

"It seems pretty clear to me that Oregon is going to Kerry," said Bill Lunch, chairman of Oregon State University's political science department.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:24 PM | | Basie! Home

Is it rhetoric or is it a lie?

President Bush: "The Senator is denigrating the action of our troops and commanders in the field." (Lilitz, PA October 27.) The President was referring to Kerry's criticisms of the explosives that disappeared in Iraq and Kerry's criticisms of the Tora Bora hunt for Osama Bin Laden in December 2001.

Regarding the missing explosives, what Kerry said Wednesday, "The IAEA warned the Bush Administration and the UN Security Council before the war that this weapons site was critical and needed urgent protection. The U.S. commander who reached the sight was never told to stop, inspect, and protect it. He was never even told what it was." Kerry went on to say, "The troops did their job, the commander in chief failed to do his." Is that denigrating the action of our troops?

On Kerry's criticism about Afghan warlords, instead of U.S. forces, leading the search in December 2001 for Osama Bin Laden in Tora Bora. Bush: "Our intelligence reports placed Bin Laden in any of several different countries at the time." (Lilitz, PA Oct. 27.) Actually, the Pentagon was convinced Bin Laden was cornered in Tora Bora in mid-December 2001.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:46 AM | | Basie! Home

President George W. Bush has scratched out a narrow 49 - 46 percent lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry among Florida likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 1 percent, with 4 percent undecided.

This compares to a 48 - 47 percent matchup, with President Bush on top, in an October 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

Among the 16 percent of Florida voters who say they already have cast ballots, Kerry is ahead 56 - 39 percent. [emphasis added]

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:05 AM | | Basie! Home

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else?

Total; Def to vote (Last week, Two Weeks ago)
George Bush 45% (46, 46); 45% (47, 47)
John Kerry 49% (48, 47); 50% (48, 47)
Ralph Nader 1% (1, 1); 1% (1, 1)
Someone else 2% 2%
Would not vote 0% 0%
Don't know 3% 2%

As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2?

(Total, Def to vote)
George W Bush 45% 46%
John F Kerry 50% 51%
Ralph Nader 1% 1%
Someone else 3% 3%
Not vote at all 1% 0%

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

(Total, Def to vote)
Satisfied 37% 39%
Dissatisfied 59% 58%
Don't know 5% 3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

(Total, Def to vote)
Approve 42% 44%
Disapprove 54% 54%
Don't know 4% 2%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:45 AM | | Basie! Home

Stepping up his bid for Jewish votes in Florida, Senator John Kerry accused the Bush administration Monday of "dragging its feet" on the contentious Hungarian Gold Train case, a Holocaust restitution suit against America's government that is moving through federal court in Miami.

Hungarian Holocaust survivors brought the class-action case in 2001. They are seeking compensation for a trainload of valuables, looted by the Nazis, that came under the control of the U.S. Army shortly after World War II and then vanished. The federal judge in the case appointed a mediator to negotiate a settlement earlier this year, after the administration came under bipartisan criticism for delaying tactics.

In joining the critics, Kerry appears to be tapping into a reservoir of resentment among Holocaust survivors and their advocates, who say the administration has neglected the restitution effort on numerous fronts, failed to name a top-level Holocaust issues negotiator and lost the momentum that had been achieved during the Clinton administration.

The most explosive charge is that the administration effectively dropped pressure on Poland — home to Europe's largest prewar Jewish community and the only European nation that has not enacted restitution laws for private property — because of a desire to secure Polish support in the Iraq war. Poland currently has 2,500 troops in Iraq.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:50 PM | | Basie! Home

President

George W. Bush (R) 48%
John Kerry (D) 48%
Ralph Nader (I) 1%
Unsure 4%

Senate

Ken Salazar (D) 50%
Pete Coors (R) 45%
Other 2%
Unsure 4%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:59 PM | | Basie! Home

A U.S. District Court judge yesterday effectively ended efforts by Republicans in Ohio to challenge the eligibility of tens of thousands of voters in one of the most closely contested states in this year's presidential race.

Judge Susan J. Dlott in Cincinnati issued an order preventing local election boards from going forward with plans to notify challenged voters and hold hearings until she hears legal arguments tomorrow. But because her ruling means that those election board hearings cannot take place within the time frame state law requires before the election, Dlott's ruling kills the GOP effort that had targeted 35,000 voters, Democratic and Republican party officials said.

David Sullivan, director of the Democratic Party's Voter Protection Program in Ohio, praised the ruling and said the GOP was never able to offer proof that the challenged voters were ineligible. "The Republican assault on tens of thousands of Ohio voters was an unprecedented effort to intimidate voters, especially minorities, but, it has backfired," he said.

Mark Weaver, a lawyer for the Ohio Republican Party, said yesterday's ruling does not prevent the party from going forward with plans to place 3,400 monitors in polling places, particularly in heavily Democratic urban areas. The challenges will take place Tuesday instead of being decided beforehand, he said.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:50 PM | | Basie! Home

Diverging trends in the three largest battleground states point toward a volatile and tense finish in the presidential race, new Times polls have found.

The surveys find President Bush holding an 8 percentage point lead among likely voters in Florida, John Kerry opening a 6 percentage point advantage in Ohio, and the two men battling to a dead heat in Pennsylvania.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:26 PM | | Basie! Home

Yasser Arafat collapsed Wednesday evening, was unconscious for about 10 minutes and remained in a "very difficult situation," Palestinian officials said. A team of Jordanian doctors was urgently summoned to treat the ailing Palestinian leader.

Within hours, three senior Palestinian officials formed a special committee to run Palestinian affairs during Arafat's illness, according to a Palestinian official in Arafat's office.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 4:16 PM | | Basie! Home

With less than a week to go before the election, many swing voters have yet to commit to a candidate, but over the past month there has been some movement among this group toward Sen. John Kerry. A Pew Research Center follow-up survey with 519 swing voters ­ who in September were undecided or said they could change their vote ­ finds that about half (52%) have moved off the fence, while nearly as many (48%) still are not certain of how they will vote.

Overall, Kerry has made more substantial gains among these swing voters in the past month than has Bush. Today, 40% say they are either certain to vote for Kerry or are leaning toward him (up from just 28% who leaned in Kerry's direction a month ago). Bush's support among this group of swing voters stands at 38%, up only slightly from 34% in September.

Those who have decided on their vote in the past month mention the debates as a crucial factor in their decision more than any other events or issues, especially those who have committed to Kerry (45% among those who cited a reason).

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 4:11 PM | | Basie! Home

General Wesley Clark released the following statement today:

"Today George W. Bush made a very compelling and thoughtful argument for why he should not be reelected. In his own words, he told the American people that "...a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your Commander in Chief."

"President Bush couldn't be more right. He jumped to conclusions about any connection between Saddam Hussein and 911. He jumped to conclusions about weapons of mass destruction. He jumped to conclusions about the mission being accomplished. He jumped to conclusions about how we had enough troops on the ground to win the peace. And because he jumped to conclusions, terrorists and insurgents in Iraq may very well have their hands on powerful explosives to attack our troops, we are stuck in Iraq without a plan to win the peace, and Americans are less safe both at home and abroad."

"By doing all these things, he broke faith with our men and women in uniform. He has let them down. George W. Bush is unfit to be our Commander in Chief."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:18 PM | | Basie! Home

A man was arrested Wednesday after he was accused of trying to run down Rep. Katherine Harris and a group of supporters with his car.

Witnesses said a silver Cadillac sped through an intersection and swerved onto the sidewalk. The car headed straight toward Harris before swerving at the last minute and driving off, according to police.

Harris told police she feared for her life and could not move as the vehicle sped toward her, police records show.

Witnesses gave the car's license plate number to police, and they tracked it to Barry M. Seltzer, 46. He came to the police station early Wednesday and complained to officers that Harris' supporters had impeded traffic.

"I intimidated them with my car," Seltzer told police. "I was exercising my political expression." [emphasis added]

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:11 PM | | Basie! Home

Only seven days before election day, President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are separated by a single percentage point, the latest Harris Poll shows.

The poll echoes other surveys from across the nation showing the two candidates are in a dead heat. The latest Reuters/Zogby poll (taken Oct. 23-25) shows Mr. Bush ahead but within the margin of error, and the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll (taken Oct. 22-24) shows Mr. Kerry ahead by a point, well within that poll's margin of error.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 11:05 AM | | Basie! Home

Here's a email note I got from an insider pollster:

The word I hear is that NYT/CBS are not going to release their latest FL survey, because it shows Kerry up by 4 points. Apparently, they [CBS & NYT's] think that is an implausible result, so they are suppressing it. Of course, it's not implausible at all. And imagine the reverse: would they have suppressed a poll showing Bush up 4?

Update (Chris): The rumor I heard, from a good source, was that the poll showed Kerry up nine in Florida. Maybe the poll is flawed, but they should at least release it. Include whatever caveats they want. After all, flawed polls never stop Gallup or Mason-Dixon from public release.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:15 AM | | Basie! Home

The Democratic Party has registered 108,000 more new voters than the Republican Party since the April primary in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to figures released Tuesday.

The latest round of registrations, which closed Oct. 4, left Democrats with nearly 4 million people on the voting rolls, a 7 percent increase. GOP ranks increased by 4 percent to nearly 3.4 million.

The number of registered voters in Pennsylvania stands at a record 8.2 million, a 6 percent increase since April.

Of 437,896 new registrants, 247,207 are Democrats and 138,864 are Republicans, according to unofficial totals from all 67 counties.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:47 AM | | Basie! Home

Amid all the fuss about getting new voters to the polls next week, campaign signs affixed to wheelchairs, oxygen tanks and motorized scooters illustrate why the nation's seasoned voters shall never be ignored.

They just won't pipe down.

Warren Easterly, 90, of Salem cast his first vote in 1936 for Franklin D. Roosevelt and hasn't missed an election since.

Unable to move around too much, he does street-corner campaigning for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.

"A lot of cars drive by, honking, waving and hollering, 'Hang in there,'" the West Salem resident said. "It's fun."

But in a year when the polls show President Bush and challenger Sen. John Kerry in a virtual tie, even the older crowd is reminding its peers to participate this year.

Whether it's the fate of Medicare and Social Security or the state of the country left behind for their grandchildren, groups that represent older Americans are launching their own "get out the vote" efforts.

GrannyVote.org is asking the estimated 70 million grandparents in the United States to vote on behalf of future generations.

According to a recent survey commissioned by the group and conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs, an overwhelming majority of America's 70 million grandparents, about 86 percent, are registered to vote in the 2004 election. This is higher than both nongrandparents (76 percent) and the general public (79 percent), according to GrannyVote.org.

Part exercise, part entertainment and part wanting to see Bush move out of the White House, Easterly said his weekly banner waving at busy intersections is what he has to offer at this point.

"I can stand still," he explained of why he spends two to three hours per week greeting drivers with a Kerry/ Edwards banner.

"It's my political belief, but it's also good exercise," said Easterly, who uses an oxygen tank.

Although he gets a lot of positive response in the form of "thumbs up" he also has seen his share of the single-extended-finger reaction.

"I get a kick out of it," Easterly said.

And he hopes that his efforts are at least making people think.

"Why would this dawdling old man be out there?" he hopes people wonder. "He's only got today, so why does he think that (Kerry) should be president?"

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:11 AM | | Basie! Home

Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry bounces back into a statistical dead-heat race with President George W. Bush (Kerry 47%-Bush 48%), according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll data this evening has leaners factored into the overall results. The telephone poll of 1203 likely voters was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday (October 24-26, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

*Leaners have been factored in to the overall results. Without leaners factored in: Bush 46%, Kerry 46%, Nader.8%, Undecideds 7 %

Pollster John Zogby: "Today was a big day for Kerry, with a 5 point lead in the single day of polling. Kerry has managed to consolidate a big chunk of his base just as Bush has done on his own behalf. Kerry leads 2 to 1 among Hispanics; he is getting 90% of African Americans; 84% of Democrats; 55% of union voters; 65% of singles; and well over 50% of all voters earning under $50K.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:57 AM | | Basie! Home

Hoarse partisans called out "eight more years." Suburban moms turned giddy and waited in long lines just to touch his hand.

It was, in short, a rock-star-scale reception as former president Bill Clinton made high-profile campaign appearances Monday evening and Tuesday in South Florida aimed at inspiring Democrats to elect Sen. John F. Kerry president next week. Clinton, looking thin and somewhat weary six weeks after heart-bypass surgery, donned a white yarmulke before addressing a packed synagogue in Palm Beach County on Tuesday. He spread his arms wide the night before as he strolled onstage to the hip-hop groove of Outkast's "Hey Ya" outside the Miami government center building that was the scene of some of the pivotal moments of the disputed 2000 presidential election.

"I was wondering if the wolves were smelling the explosives out of that dump," Clinton told the audience gathered under the chandeliers at the B'nai Torah Congregation in Boca Raton. He invoked the Hebrew phrase Tikkun Olam, healing the world, to tout Kerry's promise to improve relationships with nations that Democrats say were alienated by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. But Clinton also promised that Kerry would take a strong stance on protecting Israel, and would ensure that Israel retains "qualitative military superiority."

"You can take it to the bank," he said to rousing cheers.

Clinton praised Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to remove Jewish settlements from Gaza, saying he hoped the proposal -- which the Knesset approved Tuesday -- was being ratified as he spoke. The appeals to Jewish voters are considered all the more important because the Bush administration appears to have made inroads in this traditionally Democratic constituency in South Florida, home to hundreds of thousands of Jews. Some Jews here see Kerry as less of a known quantity on Israel, despite favorable ratings from Jewish groups. Several speakers stressed those ratings Tuesday, including Kerry's brother, Cameron Kerry, who converted to Judaism.

"Bush did good for Israel, very good," Nat Butters, 74, a Boca Raton property manager and Kerry supporter, said as he waited for Clinton to arrive onstage. "There's no denying it."

In Miami, Clinton's appearance placed him in front of a key demographic: Hispanic voters. He was introduced by Hialeah Mayor Raul L. Martinez (D), who was dubbed "the Big Cubano" by former House member Carrie Meek. Signs reading "Cubanos con Kerry" were held high for the television cameras before Clinton took the stage. Cuban Americans, still considered a stronghold for Republicans, have been identified for possible conversion by Democrats hoping to capitalize on complaints about the Bush administration's new rules limiting family visits to the island.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:47 PM | | Basie! Home

When the government issues a terror warning, the president's approval rating increases an average of nearly three points, a Cornell University sociologist says.

"The social theories predict it, and anecdotally we know it to be true. Now we have statistical science to confirm it," said Robb Willer, assistant director of Cornell's Sociology and Small Groups Laboratory.

On average, a terror warning prompted a 2.75 point increase in President George Bush's approval rating the following week, said Willer, who published his study in Current Research in Social Psychology, a peer-reviewed online journal.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:51 PM | | Basie! Home

• In an election for President in Ohio today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 50% to 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 831 likely voters conducted 10/23 - 10/25.
  
• 3 wks ago, Kerry led by 1 pt. 1 wk ago, Kerry led by 2 pts. Today, Kerry leads by 3.
  
• Bush leads by 3 among men. Kerry leads by 8 among women. Bush leads by 9 among voters age 35 to 49. Kerry leads among all other age groups. Bush leads by 7 among whites. Kerry leads by 74 among blacks. Bush holds 90% of GOP base. Kerry holds 88% of Dem base. Indys break 54% to 40% for Kerry. Kerry leads in union HH's by 24 pts. Bush leads in non-union HH's by 7. Kerry up 18 pts among those voters earning < $40k/yr.
  
• GOP incumbent Senator George Voinovich tops Democrat Eric Fingerhut 59% to 33% today.

• In an election in PA today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 53% to 45% & incumbent GOP Senator Arlen Specter defeats Dem Jim Hoeffel & Constitutionist Jim Clymer 51% to 38% to 6%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 803 likely voters conducted 10/23 - 10/25.
  
• 1 wk ago, Specter led by 7, now 13. Specter is up 3, Hoeffel is down 3. Clymer flat.
  
• 1 wk ago, Kerry led by 6, today by 8. Bush had led in suburban PA by 4, today Kerry leads by 5, a 9-pt Democrat swing. Bush had led by 2 in non-military HH's, now Kerry leads by 15. Bush had led by 3 in non-union HH's, now Kerry leads by 3. Kerry had led by 1 among PA males, now leads by 4. Kerry had led by 4 among voters age 65+, Kerry now leads by 16 among voters age 65+. Bush had led by 4 among whites, now up by 1.

• In an election today in Missouri, 1 week to the vote, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 52% to 45%, Republican Matt Blunt defeats Democrat Claire McCaskill for Governor 52% to 44%, & incumbent GOP senator Kit Bond defeats Democrat Nancy Farmer 60% to 34%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 680 likely voters conducted 10/23 - 10/25.
  
• 1 wk ago, in tracking poll, Bush led by 6, now 7. 1 wk ago, Blunt led by 6, now 8.
  
• Kerry leads by 23 in union HH's. Bush leads by 17 in non-union HH's. Bush leads by 4 in KC, by 35 in the Ozarks & by 38 in central MO. Kerry leads in St Louis by 8.
  
• Blunt leads by 36 in Ozarks & central MO. McCaskill leads by 3 in KC & by 4 in STL.

• In an election in Arkansas today, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 51% to 45% & incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln is re-elected to US Senate, topping GOP challenger Jim Holt 57% to 38%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 649 likely voters 10/23 - 10/25.
  
• 1 wk ago, in identical tracking poll, Bush led by 5, now by 6. Bush leads among voters 35 to 64. Kerry leads among younger & older voters. Bush leads by 20 among whites, trails by 71 among blacks. Bush holds 92% of GOP base. Kerry holds 82% of Dem base (13% of Dems cross-over to Bush). Indys break 59% to 36% for Bush.
  
• Bush leads in all income groups, leads in both military & non-military HH's, leads with both men & women. Kerry leads among moderates & those who attend church rarely.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:58 PM | | Basie! Home

(ASKED 3-WAY WHERE NADER ON BALLOT AND 2-WAY OTHERWISE) Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry -- for whom would you vote -- George Bush or John Kerry?

John Kerry 48
Lean John Kerry 1
George Bush 46
Lean George Bush 1
Ralph Nader 1
Lean Ralph Nader 0
(Other 1
Lean (Other) 0
(Undecided 1
(Refused) 1
(Already Voted Refused) 1

Total John Kerry 49
Total George Bush 47
Total Ralph Nader 1
Total (Other) 1
Total (Undecided/Refused) 1

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:49 PM | | Basie! Home

That's the same as Monday's tracking result. The race tightened slightly from last week because Saturday and Sunday were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1; Monday, though, was a bit better for Bush. Tracking polls average results across days to build a reliable sample.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:32 PM | | Basie! Home

One week to go and it can't possibly get any closer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 47.8% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 47.8%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When leaners are included, it's Kerry 48.8% Bush 48.7. Other Candidates attract 0.7% and 1.8% are not sure (half of those who are not sure probably won't vote). Ninety-three percent (93%) of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Kerry voters say the same.

[...]

The national telephone survey of 3,000 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:11 AM | | Basie! Home

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville Md., queried the opinions of 600 likely Oregon voters by phone, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The stability of Kerry’s numbers through the fall shows that the race in Oregon remains close, but that the Democrat has so far stopped Bush from taking a lead in a state he nearly won in 2000.

"Oregon is Kerry’s," said Del Ali, whose company conducted the poll. "The numbers have been pretty consistent. Granted, it’s within the margin of error so you could say it’s statistically close. But I doubt it, based on the favorable and unfavorable ratings. Bush has never been above 45 percent in any of our polls."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:51 AM | | Basie! Home

Kerry 49%
Bush 46%

Kerry 49%
Bush 47%

Kerry 50%
Bush 47%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:30 AM | | Basie! Home

But if Bill Clinton was good at energizing the thousands of troops at the rally, John Kerry was - incredibly - better.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:08 AM | | Basie! Home

One site mentioned is by Princeton Professor Sam Wang which currently predicts a Democratic victory when allocating undecided voters: Kerry 307, Bush 231.

Another site by Cal State's Matthew Hubbard, which "chomps through 16.8 million possibilities in the Electoral College in 72 seconds," also predicts a Kerry victory. His most recent prediction gives Kerry a 73.9% chance of reaching the winning threshold of 270 electoral votes, with Bush at 24.6%. He rated the probability of a 269-269 tie at 1.6%.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:51 AM | | Basie! Home

Here at home, Bush has governed more along the lines of Rutherford B. Hayes and Benjamin Harrison, bewhiskered and now forgotten Republicans of the Gilded Age. Like them, he has devoted his energy to keeping his party’s most powerful constituents happy, providing them with regular feedings, opening the White House to business lobbies, and turning his congressional majority into a patronage machine at the expense of fiscal sanity and simple fairness. His legislative agenda projects nothing like the ambitious idealism of his foreign policy; at home, the global crusader remains a crony capitalist. In last week’s debate, Bush’s solution for the most pressing domestic problems of his Presidency was a kind of verbal shrug. What to do about the steep drop in the value of the minimum wage? “Listen, the No Child Left Behind Act is really a jobs act,” the President insisted, in a non sequitur. Who’s to blame for skyrocketing health-insurance costs? “Gosh, I sure hope it’s not the Administration,” he said with a chuckle. According to Bush’s philosophy of government, America’s ability to assert its will for the greater good around the world is enormous. In Toledo—well, there are limits.

The contradiction in being T.R. abroad and Rutherford B. Hayes at home has plagued Bush’s governance ever since the terror attacks. He has lacked the vocabulary and perhaps the desire to summon a national community and to ask it for sacrifice and commitment in the fight against the foreign enemy. His energy policy, his fixation on tax cuts, and his sweetheart contracts with friendly corporations have directly undermined the war effort. The deeper effect of a narrow, partisan domestic agenda has been to polarize the country when unity was required.

There’s a case to be made that it hardly matters how eloquent or effective John Kerry was at the Democratic National Convention last week. What matters infinitely more is that George W. Bush is the worst President the country has endured since Richard Nixon, and even mediocrity would be an improvement. Indeed, if one regards the Bush Administration’s sins of governance—its distortion of intelligence in a time of crisis, its grotesque indulgence of the rich at the expense of the rest, its arrogant dissolution of American prestige and influence abroad, its heedless squandering of the world’s resources—as worse than the third-rate burglary and second-rate coverup of thirty years ago, then President Bush is in a league only with the likes of Harding, Fillmore, Pierce, and Buchanan.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 11:16 PM | | Basie! Home

President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, in a race dividing Americans far more along lines of cultural values than economic interests, remain locked in a dead heat one week before election day, a Times Poll has found.

Whether measured among all registered voters or only those viewed as most likely to vote - and with or without independent Ralph Nader in the mix - the poll finds Kerry and Bush in a statistical tie.

Among likely voters, Bush and Kerry each draws 48%, with Nader attracting 1%, and 3% undecided. Without Nader, Bush leads Kerry 49% to 48% among likely voters, with 3% undecided.

[...]

The Times Poll, supervised by director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,698 registered voters, of which 881 were deemed likely to vote, from last Thursday through Saturday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for both groups.

The poll uses a series of questions to determine those respondents most likely to vote, but unlike some other recent national surveys it found little difference in the preferences of that group and all registered voters.

Among the larger group of all registered voters, a three-way race is still tied: Bush and Kerry each draw 47%, with Nader attracting 1%. In a two-way race, Kerry leads Bush among these voters by 48% to 47% - a statistically insignificant margin, as with Bush's one percentage point lead among likely voters without Nader included.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:32 PM | | Basie! Home

The Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan early next year, pushing total war costs close to $225 billion since the invasion of Iraq early last year, Pentagon and congressional officials said yesterday.

White House budget office spokesman Chad Kolton emphasized that final decisions on the supplemental spending request will not be made until shortly before the request is sent to Congress. That may not happen until early February, when President Bush submits his budget for fiscal 2006, assuming he wins reelection.

But Pentagon and House Appropriations Committee aides said the Defense Department and military services are scrambling to get their final requests to the White House Office of Management and Budget by mid-November, shortly after the election. The new numbers underscore that the war is going to be far more costly and intense, and last longer, than the administration first suggested [emphasis added].

Bush has said for months that he would make an additional request for the war next year, but the new estimates are the first glimpse of its magnitude. A $70 billion request would be considerably larger than lawmakers had anticipated earlier this year. After the president unexpectedly submitted an $87 billion request for the Iraq and Afghanistan efforts last year, many Republicans angrily expressed sticker shock and implored the administration not to surprise them again.

This request would come on top of $25 billion in war spending allocated by Congress for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. The two bills combined suggest the cost of combat is escalating from the $65 billion spent by the military in 2004 and the $62.4 billion allocated in 2003, as U.S. troops face insurgencies that have proven far more lethal than expected at this point.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:26 PM | | Basie! Home

The role of foreign policy in this year's presidential election is more central than it has been in any election in decades. In this special edition of America Abroad, hosts Margaret Warner, Marvin Kalb, and Garrick Utley take listeners around the United States for a discussion with students and experts from the U.S. and abroad on the role of foreign policy in the election, the choice between John Kerry and George W. Bush, and the view from abroad on what is at stake for America and the world.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 4:29 PM | | Basie! Home

As a variety of memoirs and journalistic accounts have made plain, Bush seldom entertains contrary opinion. He boasts that he listens to no outside advisers, and inside advisers who dare to express unwelcome views are met with anger or disdain. He lives and works within a self-created bubble of faith-based affirmation. Nowhere has his solipsism been more damaging than in the case of Iraq. . . .

The damage visited upon America, and upon America’s standing in the world, by the Bush Administration’s reckless mishandling of the public trust will not easily be undone. And for many voters the desire to see the damage arrested is reason enough to vote for John Kerry. But the challenger has more to offer than the fact that he is not George W. Bush. In every crucial area of concern to Americans (the economy, health care, the environment, Social Security, the judiciary, national security, foreign policy, the war in Iraq, the fight against terrorism), Kerry offers a clear, corrective alternative to Bush’s curious blend of smugness, radicalism, and demagoguery. Pollsters like to ask voters which candidate they’d most like to have a beer with, and on that metric Bush always wins. We prefer to ask which candidate is better suited to the governance of our nation. . . .

In campaigning for America’s mainstream restoration, Kerry has insisted that this election ought to be decided on the urgent issues of our moment, the issues that will define American life for the coming half century. That insistence is a measure of his character. He is plainly the better choice. As observers, reporters, and commentators we will hold him to the highest standards of honesty andperformance. For now, as citizens, we hope for his victory.

Posted by: Jimbo / 3:59 PM | | Basie! Home

• In an election today in topsy turvy Florida, John Kerry edges George W Bush 50% to 48% & Dem Betty Castor edges GOP Mel Martinez 50% to 47%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 749 likely voters conducted 10/22-10/24. Both results within the margin of error.
  
• 1 wk ago, Kerry led by 1, now 2. 1 wk ago, Martinez led by 2, now trails by 3.
  Bush leads by 7 among men. Kerry leads by 11 among women. Bush leads by 13 among whites. Kerry leads among minorities. Bush leads by 19 pts in NE FL, Kerry leads by 26 in SE FL, Bush leads by 5 in rest of state. Kerry up 28 among lower income voters.
  
• Castor leads by 12 among women. Martinez leads by 8 among men. Castor up 18 in SE FL.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:17 PM | | Basie! Home

Apparently, it was the largest campaign rally in decades, if not ever, surpassing 100,000 people. Make sure you look at the photos in the linked story. I love Philadelphia.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:34 PM | | Basie! Home

Skepticism about the nation's direction is boosting John Kerry's campaign for president: Fifty-five percent of likely voters say the country is on the wrong track, and their discontent is fueling Kerry to an even race against President Bush.

Overall, 49 percent of likely voters now support Kerry, 48 percent Bush, 1 percent Ralph Nader. Given polling tolerances that's essentially a tie, but it is the first time since Aug. 1 that Kerry's held a numerical advantage, however slight, in ABC News polls.

A weekend advance did it: Saturday and Sunday were two of Kerry's three best individual days since this daily tracking poll began Oct. 1. Today's results are based on Thursday-Sunday interviews.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:21 PM | | Basie! Home

Kerry 49
Bush 48

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:05 PM | | Basie! Home

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

This is the first time Senator Kerry has held the lead since August 23. The 48.4% for Kerry is the Senator's highest total since August 17. Data for this update is collected on a three-day rolling average basis and Senator Kerry held the lead on each of the three days of polling.

When "leaners" are included, Kerry leads 49% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.

For the first time in a month, the number saying the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror and the number saying Bush is a better leader than Kerry both dipped below 50%.

[...]

The national telephone survey of 3,000 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:09 PM | | Basie! Home

There is little in John Kerry’s persona or platform that appeals to conservatives. The flip-flopper charge—the centerpiece of the Republican campaign against Kerry—seems overdone, as Kerry’s contrasting votes are the sort of baggage any senator of long service is likely to pick up. (Bob Dole could tell you all about it.) But Kerry is plainly a conventional liberal and no candidate for a future edition of Profiles in Courage. In my view, he will always deserve censure for his vote in favor of the Iraq War in 2002.

But this election is not about John Kerry. If he were to win, his dearth of charisma would likely ensure him a single term. He would face challenges from within his own party and a thwarting of his most expensive initiatives by a Republican Congress. Much of his presidency would be absorbed by trying to clean up the mess left to him in Iraq. He would be constrained by the swollen deficits and a ripe target for the next Republican nominee.

It is, instead, an election about the presidency of George W. Bush. To the surprise of virtually everyone, Bush has turned into an important president, and in many ways the most radical America has had since the 19th century. Because he is the leader of America’s conservative party, he has become the Left’s perfect foil—its dream candidate. The libertarian writer Lew Rockwell has mischievously noted parallels between Bush and Russia’s last tsar, Nicholas II: both gained office as a result of family connections, both initiated an unnecessary war that shattered their countries’ budgets. Lenin needed the calamitous reign of Nicholas II to create an opening for the Bolsheviks.

[...]

If Kerry wins, this magazine will be in opposition from Inauguration Day forward. But the most important battles will take place within the Republican Party and the conservative movement. A Bush defeat will ignite a huge soul-searching within the rank-and-file of Republicandom: a quest to find out how and where the Bush presidency went wrong. And it is then that more traditional conservatives will have an audience to argue for a conservatism informed by the lessons of history, based in prudence and a sense of continuity with the American past—and to make that case without a powerful White House pulling in the opposite direction.

George W. Bush has come to embody a politics that is antithetical to almost any kind of thoughtful conservatism. His international policies have been based on the hopelessly naïve belief that foreign peoples are eager to be liberated by American armies—a notion more grounded in Leon Trotsky’s concept of global revolution than any sort of conservative statecraft. His immigration policies—temporarily put on hold while he runs for re-election—are just as extreme. A re-elected President Bush would be committed to bringing in millions of low-wage immigrants to do jobs Americans “won’t do.” This election is all about George W. Bush, and those issues are enough to render him unworthy of any conservative support.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:55 AM | | Basie! Home

It’s John Kerry’s to lose.

No flip-flopping here. I think the Democratic nominee will win the presidential election on Nov. 2. I don’t even think it will take weeks of recounting to confirm this.

[...]

Putting Kerry’s clumsy campaign style aside, I am predicting his victory based on the overwhelming mood for change I’ve seen around the country.

I could see this mood in the nods of agreement in an airport lounge recently as a television news clip showed Kerry saying the country needs “a fresh start.” This could be the most powerful phrase in Kerry’s arsenal during the closing days.

Calling for “a fresh start” sounds like a phrase that was poll tested with a battery of focus groups, which is why it works. It is a simple notion conveyed by simple words.

The need for a fresh start is the least provocative argument that Kerry offers for replacing Bush after one term, and yet it might be the most persuasive. Kerry’s more provocative language sets the bar too high for voters to come his way.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:31 AM | | Basie! Home

Maybe the Internet isn't quite ready for political prime time yet.

An ad placed by Republican John Thune's Senate campaign accidentally wound up appearing on private sites that weren't supposed to show it last week, including one with naked pictures of men that raised some eyebrows among Democrat Sen. Tom Daschle's campaign aides.

"Click here to join Students for Thune," the banner ad read. "It's time."

Thune's campaign bought the ad, running on top of some Internet sites, in an effort to reach South Dakota voters between 18 and 34 years old. The Students for Thune group aims to persuade them that Thune, not Daschle, the Senate Democratic leader, can best speak for younger voters.

Thune boasts of what he calls his "South Dakota values," including supporting a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

So the Daschle campaign was quick to alert reporters when Democrats received an anonymous e-mail pointing out the Students for Thune banner ad on a site titled "Shirtless Just4U," which featured explicit pictures of men posing naked and in their underwear.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:20 AM | | Basie! Home

It occurred to me this morning, over coffee and the O, to wonder who the heck is this "Americans for Job Security" that for two days running has taken out full-page ads claiming that Gerry Ferraro opposes David Wu (unclear to whom this is supposed to be a motivator, but that's what it says). I called 411 and asked for "Americans for Job Security" in Alexandria, VA -- since that's all the info in the ad. The person answering the phone would tell me only that "our membership" pays for the ads, but not anything about who this "membership" is. Regrettably, I eventually lost my temper and yelled at him, which can't have done any good, but oh well.

I have left a message with John Mannex, ad director at the Oregonian, hoping to find out more about their policies regarding anonymous ads. I mean, if Halliburton took out an ad saying that David Wu and John Kerry are engaged to be in a gay marriage, I would not like it, but I could do lots of things to let Halliburton know about that. Also, suppose I want to take out an ad saying that Dachshunds are the best ever dogs, but then I get cold feet because what if Lab people don't agree. Can I just run an anonymous ad and say it's from "Dachshunds for a Better America and Apple Pie"?

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:08 AM | | Basie! Home

Absar Chowdhury of Sterling cast his ballot for George W. Bush in 2000 because the Republican candidate vowed to stop the use of secret evidence in deportation hearings, was against abortion and "looked like he was religious."

But the Bangladesh-born Muslim said he will vote for Democrat John F. Kerry next week because President Bush has disappointed him in several ways. In particular, Chowdhury cited an erosion of civil liberties, including the continuing use of secret evidence, and the war in Iraq, which has left thousands of Iraqis and more than 1,100 Americans dead.

"He was saying that he was religious, but the Fifth Commandment says we shall not kill," said Chowdhury, 45, a computer center shift manager.

Chowdhury is emblematic of a dramatic switch among Muslim American voters. Four years ago, 42 percent of them voted for Bush. But in this year's race, they are expected to vote overwhelmingly for his opponent, with one recent poll showing 76 percent of the Muslim vote going to Kerry and 7 percent to Bush.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:37 PM | | Basie! Home

The top civilian contracting official for the Army Corps of Engineers, charging that the Army granted the Halliburton Company large contracts for work in Iraq and the Balkans without following rules designed to ensure competition and fair prices to the government, has called for a high-level investigation of what she described as threats to the "integrity of the federal contracting program."

The official, Bunnatine H. Greenhouse, said that in at least one case she witnessed, Army officials inappropriately allowed representatives of Halliburton to sit in as they discussed the terms of a contract the company was set to receive.

Her accusations offer the first extended account of arguments that roiled inside the military bureaucracy over contracts with the company.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:27 PM | | Basie! Home

AP Photo/ Ida Mae Astute, ABC News

Clinton Says Stumping for Kerry Not a Risk

Former President Clinton dismissed concerns that his decision to campaign for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry seven weeks after undergoing heart surgery is risky, saying, "I want to do this." In an interview Sunday with ABC News, Clinton said he talked to his doctors about it and "they made some very helpful suggestions."

"They said, you know, I should get wherever I'm going early in case I'm tired, so I can kind of regenerate," he said.

The former president planned to attend a rally with Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, in Philadelphia on Monday morning and then travel to Florida for a rally that evening.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:23 PM | | Basie! Home

U.S. gasoline pump prices rose about 5 cents in the past two weeks to an average of $2.0408 a gallon, Trilby Lundberg said, citing a survey of about 7,000 filling stations by her Camarillo, California-based market research firm.

Rising crude-oil prices were the main cause of the increase, Lundberg said in a telephone interview. Crude-oil futures in New York closed at an all-time high of $55.17 a barrel on Oct. 22, the day the survey was conducted.

``In fact, gasoline prices haven't caught up with crude-oil prices in the past two weeks, so there is more pressure for retail gasoline prices to rise a bit further,'' Lundberg said.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:07 PM | | Basie! Home

Before he went on CNN's "Crossfire" program and made news by lecturing its hosts, "The Daily Show" comedy anchor Jon Stewart complained about cable news to 60 Minutes Correspondent Steve Kroft.

Kroft's profile of the Comedy Central star and his satirical news show will be broadcast Sunday, Oct. 24, at 7 p.m. ET/PT.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:47 PM | | Basie! Home

On Friday it was reported that a "key Bush campaign adviser" calls America a "Christian nation." According to him, the separation of church and state is "a myth." And he's spread his message during more than 300 events over the past year -- events paid for by the Republican Party.

We've also learned that George W. Bush this summer re-appointed to a presidential committee a pastor who is a national leader of "Jews for Jesus." This person has played a leadership role in national campaigns to proselytize Jews, including one last August and September -- timed to coincide with the Jewish High Holidays.

What do these two news items have in common? A religiously-exclusive worldview, and a contempt for the civil and religious liberties we hold dear.

If you've had enough of George W. Bush's tolerance of "Christian nation" rhetoric and his promoting of those who aggressively proselytize Jews, please take a moment now to sign a petition and urge George W. Bush and RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie to end the divisiveness of their of actions.

http://ga4.org/campaign/christiannation/ge6seb4hj3ewwe

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:39 PM | | Basie! Home

George W. Bush 49
John Kerry 48

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:00 PM | | Basie! Home

"Across America"
"Never"
"Economy Kick Start"

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:43 PM | | Basie! Home

"Yes, Kerry is liberal. But what's to fear from a liberal president? That he would run big deficits? That he would increase federal spending? That he would expand the power of the federal government over individuals' lives? Nothing Kerry could do could top what President Bush has already done in those realms."

-- The Des Moines Register's endorsement of Sen. John Kerry.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:10 PM | | Basie! Home

The U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo and Republican Sen. Jim Bunning appears to have tightened to 6 percentage points, according to a new Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

A similar poll taken in September showed Bunning was ahead by 17 points.

The new poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, shows 49 percent of likely voters would vote for Bunning, 43 percent prefer Mongiardo and 9 percent were undecided.

Because the results are within the poll's margin of error — plus or minus 3.7 percentage points — Bunning may not be definitely ahead. It also means Bunning could have a larger lead.

The poll questioned 690 registered voters who said they definitely or probably would vote in the Nov. 2 general election.

Compared to that poll, the Bluegrass Poll taken Sept. 10-15 showed 51 percent of voters supported Bunning, 34 percent were for Mongiardo and 15 percent were undecided.

The poll asked respondents which candidate they would vote for if the election were held today.

To that question, 45 percent said Bunning, 39 percent said Mongiardo and 16 percent said they were undecided.

When undecided voters were asked which way they leaned, Bunning's total increased to 49 percent, and Mongiardo's to 43 percent.

Mongiardo's name recognition has soared during the past month, according to the poll.

In the September poll, only 37 percent of likely voters said they had ever read or heard anything about Mongiardo. In the poll taken last week, 77 percent of likely voters said they had heard or read something about Mongiardo.

Of those familiar with Mongiardo, 43 percent said they had a favorable impression, 26 percent said they had an unfavorable impression about him, and 30 percent were undecided.

Bunning's name recognition also climbed during the period from 83 percent to 91 percent. Of those who had heard or read about him, 44 had a favorable impression, 33 percent unfavorable, and 23 percent were undecided.

In the September Bluegrass Poll, Bunning's ratio was 50 percent favorable to 21 percent unfavorable.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:29 AM | | Basie! Home

Leaders of Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry's national campaign have decided to spend an additional $50,000 in Virginia, signaling that they have not given up all hope of winning the state.

Kerry's campaign largely abandoned Virginia this month after investing almost $2 million this summer on television ads and a statewide staff. The campaign's state director and spokesman were sent to states considered more competitive, leaving the campaign exclusively to state party workers.

[...]

"We believe we can win Virginia," said Lawrence H. Framme III, chairman of Kerry's campaign in the state.

[...]

Aides to Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) said that the state's popular chief executive is not convinced that Republicans have a lock on the state's 13 electoral votes, despite Democrats not winning them since 1964.

Mary A. "Mame" Reiley, Warner's chief political strategist, said that last week, Warner called Steve Elmendorf, Kerry's deputy campaign manager, and asked for $25,000 to try to secure a long-shot win. Elmendorf doubled the amount, Reiley said.

Pollsters have all but given Virginia's 13 electoral votes to President Bush. Pundits say none of the state's congressional campaigns is likely to produce an upset Nov. 2. And there are no statewide races to pique a voter's interest in going to the polls.

But try telling any of that to the armies of volunteers that both parties have assembled for a final get-out-the-vote push as the 2004 campaign sprints toward Election Day.

Across the state, and especially in vote-rich Northern Virginia, thousands of union members, teachers, party activists, churchgoers, veterans and college students will spend the next nine days knocking on doors and punching in telephone numbers in an all-out effort to get their supporters to the polls.

Virginia Democrats, meanwhile, say they have not given up hope that a miracle could happen in the commonwealth on behalf of their nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.). They say the state is trending away from the Republicans, and they claim an edge in the tens of thousands of newly registered voters.

"Would it be like the Red Sox winning the American League pennant? Yeah," said Eric Graves, director of the Democratic-leaning Virginia Grassroots Coalition. "But I think it's possible."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:56 AM | | Basie! Home

Bush 47.6
Kerry 47.2

The national telephone survey of 3,000 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:11 AM | | Basie! Home

The close presidential race nudged even closer in the latest ABC News tracking poll, with 49 percent of likely voters favoring George W. Bush and 48 percent for John Kerry — a bare point between them with less than a week and a half of campaigning to go.

Much continues to rest on turnout. Young voters are Kerry's best age group by far; he holds a 21-point lead among 18- to 29-year-olds. And more than half of likely voters that age say it'll be their first time voting in a presidential election.

[...]

The race tightened slightly, from 51-46 percent most of last week and 50-46 percent Friday, because Saturday was Kerry's best single day since this tracking poll began Oct.1. Still, these are small shifts, all within polling tolerances; the race has been close and still is.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:58 AM | | Basie! Home

Four years ago, the Orlando Sentinel endorsed Republican George W. Bush for president based on our trust in him to unite America. We expected him to forge bipartisan solutions to problems while keeping this nation secure and fiscally sound.

This president has utterly failed to fulfill our expectations. We turn now to his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, with the belief that he is more likely to meet the hopes we once held for Mr. Bush.

Despite his differences with Mr. Bush over the wisdom of the war, Mr. Kerry recognizes the imperative of securing and stabilizing Iraq. He would intensify efforts to enlist more foreign help, and speed up training of Iraqi forces and reconstruction in the country.

Mr. Kerry would bolster national security by adding 40,000 troops to the overstretched U.S. military, and doubling its special forces. He would accelerate the program that secures nuclear material in the former Soviet Union before it can fall into the hands of terrorists.

Mr. Kerry would enhance homeland securityby doing more to protect ports and other vulnerable facilities. Unlike Mr. Bush, he understands that government accountability and civil liberties must not be needlessly compromised in the name of the war on terrorism. . . .

[etc.]

In Sum, we believe Mr. Kerry would be a more bipartisan and effective leader than Mr. Bush. In the Nov. 2 general election, the Sentinel endorses John Kerry for president of the United States.

Posted by: Jimbo / 8:38 PM | | Basie! Home

I agree with all of you who have complained about the confusing poll numbers and the inability to determine who is really winning this election.

But, there is one number in all of these polls that both campaigns and the gang here at Hardball are paying very close attention to: The president's approval rating. Over the last week, based on eight national polls, the President's approval rating averaged 48.3 percent. At the low end was the CBS/NY Times poll at 44 percent... at the high end was CNN/USA Today/Gallup at 51 percent.

This number is incredibly important because of history. If you look back over the last 40 years, an incumbent president seeking re-election has never received a portion of the raw vote that was higher than his approval rating. Furthermore, in every election where the president's approval rating was below 50 percent, undecided voters broke heavily for the challenger. In other words, most analysts predict that the President will not go above his approval percentage... though John Kerry could see an election day bounce of a few points.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:31 PM | | Basie! Home

A federal appeals court on Saturday reversed a lower court's ruling that Ohio voters could cast provisional ballots on Election Day anywhere in the county in which they are registered. . . .

The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that a provisional ballot cast outside a voter's home precinct isn't valid, agreeing with Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell. Federal law allows people to get provisional ballots if they are in the right jurisdiction.

Blackwell, a Republican, defines that as a precinct, while Democrats say it's the voter's county. . . .

The state's Democrats had filed a lawsuit challenging Blackwell's directive instructing county elections boards not to give ballots to voters who come to the wrong precinct and to send them to the correct polling place on Election Day.

An earlier A.P. article [Link] , prior to the ruling, had this to say about the case:

The Supreme Court, which settled the last presidential election, may be drawn
into this one even before Election Day.

A federal appeals court - one step away from the Supreme Court - is expected to rule next week on one of the most contested questions this year, the counting of provisional ballots. It is possible that one side or the other would then appeal to the justices, asking them to draw national rules. . . .

Given the DNC's army of lawyers, it wouldn't be surprising if this case were to appear at the Supreme Court in the next two weeks. Recollecting 2000's Bush vs. Gore case, the odds may be stacked against us. The wisest thing to do, then, is to push this issue into the spotlight of the media and to make known that it is just one more example of Republican voter suppression efforts. (BTW, of the three judges on the 6th Circuit, two were appointed by Reagan and one by Clinton).

Posted by: Jimbo / 5:12 PM | | Basie! Home

Says [Tucker] Carlson [of CNN's Crossfire]: "Jon Stewart is a talented comedian, and all of a sudden he wants to be Kathleen Hall Jamieson," the University of Pennsylvania author and media analyst.

"There are things wrong with cable shout-shows, definitely. There are things wrong with 'Crossfire.' What bothered me was the pomposity and sanctimony, the notion that we're the problem. He doesn't understand the role of shows like ours in the media food chain. Not only was he not funny, he was not interesting. Banal."

[...]

Some journalists have rallied to his defense. "Jon Stewart never said he was going to renounce his standing as a smart guy who went to William and Mary and as a sharp social critic," says NBC anchor Brian Williams, a past "Daily Show" guest. "Sure he has an impact. The din of our media has reached the point where we could use a have-you-no-sense-of-decency-sir-at-long-last moment."

[Ted] Koppel [of ABC's Nightline] takes issue with Stewart's insistence that journalists should put forth the "truth." "Jon feels people like me in particular should be more opinionated, not less. He feels I have a responsibility to get in there and tell the public, 'Look, this guy is lying' -- maybe not quite that blatantly. I disagree with that only in part. . . . In a live interview you can say, 'That doesn't sound right,' but you don't automatically have all the facts at your disposal."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:17 PM | | Basie! Home

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When "leaners" are included, the President leads 49% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:06 AM | | Basie! Home

With the number of days before the presidential election dwindling down to single digits, a new NEWSWEEK poll finds President George W. Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry running in an ever tighter race. The poll of 1,008 registered voters, including 880 likely voters—conducted Thursday and Friday—finds President Bush’s lead in last week’s NEWSWEEK poll has evaporated. At the same time, Sen. Kerry still hasn’t been able to close the deal with voters.

In the national horserace, Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards are tied 46 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. Ralph Nader and his running mate Peter Camejo, on the ballot in only 34 states and Washington DC, receive 2 percent of the vote. Six percent of registered voters are undecided. Among likely voters, the Bush-Cheney ticket leads 48 percent to 46 percent for Kerry-Edwards, with 1 percent for Nader-Camejo and 5 percent undecided. In last week’s poll (Oct. 14-15), Bush-Cheney led 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters, and 50 percent to 44 among likely voters. This week’s poll cuts the president’s lead among likely vot­ers by more than half, well within the plus or minus 3-point margin of error.

In a two-way trial heat, excluding Nad­er, the race is even tighter. Among regis­tered voters, Kerry-Edwards and Bush-Ch­eney both receive 47 percent. Among likely voters, Bush-Cheney leads by just one point, 48 to 47 percent. In last week’s poll, Bush-Cheney led 48 to 47 percent among registered voters and 50 to 45 among likely voters. Moreover, all signs point to continu­ing voter volatility between now and Elec­tion Day. Though only 6 percent of regis­tered voters (and 5 percent of likely voters) are undecided , 13 percent of registered vot­ers 9 percent of Bush-Cheney supporters and 12 percent of Kerry-Edwards support­ers—say they have not yet “made up their mind” about whom to vote for. (That com­pares to 19 percent at this point in 2000, 21 percent in 1996, and 27 percent in 1992.) With so few “persuadables” and with both campaigns desperate to sway (or scare) them their way, brace yourself for one of the nastiest weeks in American politics.And the fighting will likely fol­low voters right into their polling stations. [Emphasis added]

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:58 AM | | Basie! Home

Oregon is still a swing state in the presidential race, but it no longer appears to be a toss-up.

Most polls show that Democrat Sen. John Kerry has carved a clear lead in Oregon, and both campaigns reportedly have reduced television advertising in the state. And there is a good possibility that neither Kerry nor President Bush will be back in the state before the Nov. 2 election.

Kerry campaign strategists are confident enough about Oregon that they didn't include the state on a two-day Western swing Kerry is completing today. Instead, Kerry campaigned Friday in Reno, Nev., and is scheduled to hold rallies today in New Mexico and Colorado

"From my point of view, it's not impossible that Bush could win Oregon," said Tim Hibbitts, an independent Portland pollster, "but it would be a stretch."

In part, Democrats appear to have gotten a boost from their more successful effort to register new voters. County-by-county figures compiled by The Oregonian show Democrats have a 69,000-vote registration edge, up from about 51,000 in May. In addition, there's been a big increase in the number of independents, who also tend to skew Democratic in their voting.

Oregon has gone Democratic in the past four presidential elections, although Democrat Al Gore took the state by just 6,765 votes four years ago. That encouraged Republicans to put millions of dollars into the state this year in the form of advertising and an extensive get-out-the-vote campaign.

Democrats responded with their own major effort, and several independent groups allied with the Democrats also launched significant campaigns in the state.

Hibbitts said the 2000 race wouldn't have been as close if Green Party nominee Ralph Nader hadn't taken 5 percent of the vote. This year, Nader didn't qualify for the Oregon ballot.

Paige Richardson, Kerry's campaign manager in Oregon, said Bush's standing in the state has been hurt by the continued high unemployment and widespread voter doubts about the war in Iraq.

She said the campaign's polls show Kerry leading in Oregon and that she didn't think it was necessary for the candidate to visit again.

"We told them we can win without you coming," she said. "Let's put our resources where they need to be."

Richardson said the Bush campaign and the Republican National Committee had been spending as much as $500,000 a week on television advertising in Oregon, but cut it in the past week to about $170,000. She said the Kerry campaign also scaled back after seeing the Bush reductions.

Those numbers could not be independently confirmed Friday. Schmitt said only that the Bush campaign was continuing to "advertise at a competitive level" and that the president's support for lower taxes was particularly popular in Oregon.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:49 AM | | Basie! Home

Democrat John Kerry has a lead as high as 6 percent over President Bush in the key battleground state of Ohio, according to a survey completed Thursday night at Ohio University's Scripps Survey Research Center.

Among registered voters, Kerry leads 49 percent to Bush's 43 percent, with 2 percent saying they will support third party candidates and 6 percent undecided. Among likely voters (people who say they are committed to voting next month) Kerry's lead is 50 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided and 1 percent going to other candidates.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 5:15 PM | | Basie! Home

Searching for a Senate upset on Nov. 2, Democrats are putting fresh money down in Kentucky in hopes of denying Republican Sen. Jim Bunning a second term.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased more than $800,000 worth of television time to air commercials designed to help Democratic candidate Dan Mongiardo, according to several sources speaking on condition of anonymity.

The ad relies heavily on newspaper headlines to accuse Bunning of "scant leadership" and "slipping judgment" in an era of lost jobs, skyrocketing health care costs and overcrowded classrooms. It is expected to run until Election Day.

Bunning holds a huge financial advantage over his rival, a physician and state senator. But Republicans concede privately that his once formidable lead has dwindled to single digits under the weight of a series of controversial comments and curious actions.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:42 PM | | Basie! Home

The Dow Jones industrial average skidded Friday to a new low for the year when crude oil prices reached another all-time high.

After banging in to the $55 a barrel barrier repeatedly this week, crude oil broke through, closing above that point for the first time. At $55.17, crude climbed 70 cents during the day's trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:41 PM | | Basie! Home

Bush 50
Kerry 46

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:37 PM | | Basie! Home

Pasco elections officials have a warning for the county's absentee voters: Don't give your ballot to a stranger claiming to be from the elections office.

They're not who they say they are.

"The people who are soliciting your ballots in this manner are not elections officials," Pasco Elections Supervisor Kurt Browning warned Thursday.

The warning came after a phone call from a west Pasco woman. Other Florida counties have gotten similar complaints.

"We've had a bunch of them - 100 at least," said Bob Sweat, elections supervisor for Manatee County. "It's probably going on all over the state of Florida."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:26 PM | | Basie! Home

You know it's been a shaky year for political coverage on TV when the smartest commentary on both politics and the media comes from Comedy Central.

But this fall's coverage began with the ironically named Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and moved swiftly, as it were, to the "60 Minutes" notorious faux Texas National Guard documents. Since then TV news has swung eagerly from the ludicrous (President Bush's debate bulges) to the absurd (John Kerry's supposed "outing" of Mary Cheney).

Now, with less than two weeks to go, we're down to the sinister-but-inept (Sinclair Broadcasting forcing its entire empire to show an anti-Kerry documentary and call it news). Where we're headed next is anyone's guess.

So between all that and the usual partisan jabbering from the right and left, is it any wonder that the only man on TV who seems to have his head on straight is "The Daily Show" host Jon Stewart?

Make no mistake, Stewart is funny. But as the political season has heated up, his jokes have taken on a sharp new edge. What really sets him off, it seems, is the way political discourse has grown simultaneously more orchestrated, more deceptive and more brutal.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 1:32 PM | | Basie! Home

There are no two more fiercely contested states in the presidential sweepstakes than Florida and Ohio. A glance at the state unemployment rates, released this morning, shows why the Bush camp is slightly more hopeful about Florida and the Kerry campaign a bit more optimistic about Ohio.

The unemployment rate in the Sunshine State was 4.5% last month, well below the national average and down from 5.1% a year earlier. Both the number and the trend are encouraging to Republicans. The Florida jobless rate at the end of the Clinton administration was 3.8%.

In Ohio, the jobless rate improved slightly from 6.3% last month but still hovers at 6%, well above the national average and virtually the same as a year before. This is up sharply from the 3.9% unemployment rate in Ohio when George W. Bush took office.

The race is exceedingly close in both these battleground states, but the Kerry economic pitch seems to resonate more in Ohio. One recent Democratic survey there found almost 70% of Ohio residents thought the country was on the wrong track.

Five key states in the U.S. presidential election lost 37,800 jobs in September, offsetting the gains posted by other states considered critical in the election now 11 days away.

The other nine critical states gained 35,000 jobs in September, the U.S. Labor Department said on Friday in its last monthly summary on labor conditions in the 50 states before the Nov. 2 presidential election.

Michigan posted the largest decline among swing states, losing 14,800 jobs between August and September. Florida followed with a decline of 9,500 jobs. Minnesota, Oregon and Wisconsin also lost jobs.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:27 PM | | Basie! Home

Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura has officially endorsed Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.

The announcement was made during a 30-minute news conference at the State Office Building. The former Minnesota Governor was there, but did not make any comments.

Just days ago, Ventura had said that he did not plan to support Kerry or President Bush this election year.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:15 PM | | Basie! Home

John Kerry said he would leave Oregon’s controversial medical marijuana and assisted suicide laws alone and blasted President George Bush for deepening budget deficits.

The Democratic presidential candidate took a short break from the campaign trail to speak with KGW Northwest NewsChannel 8 on Thursday. Kerry’s message was heavy on states’ rights themes and domestic issues such as education and health care.

KGW has asked President Bush for a similar one-on-one interview, but his campaign has said it is unable to meet the request.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:37 AM | | Basie! Home

In the race for president, Democratic Sen. John Kerry led President Bush 65 percent to 21 percent in Multnomah County. That 3-1 Kerry ratio spells trouble for Bush statewide, said pollster Tim Hibbitts. Hibbitts said Bush needs 30 percent of the vote in Multnomah County to have a chance of carrying Oregon.

The poll by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. sampled 455 voters in Multnomah County on the income tax measure and the presidential race, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:19 AM | | Basie! Home

President Bush has moved two points ahead of Democrat John Kerry (47%-45%), but the race for the White House has tightened among several key constituencies, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll results are reminiscent of the presidential race in 2000 during this period. The telephone poll of 1212 likely voters was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday (October 19-21, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: “President Bush picked up another point today, but 48% has been the ceiling reached by either candidate in the last couple of weeks. I will obviously watch in the next couple of days to see if the president can break through. What’s of special interest today is that the candidates are pretty much tied among several key groups: Independents, Catholics, women, and military families. While Kerry leads by double-digits among 18-24 year olds, the President leads by double-digits among 25-34 year olds. It will be important for the President to keep making inroads among younger voters. Right now the candidates are nearly tied among voters over 65—another ominous sign for Kerry.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:13 AM | | Basie! Home

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning said yesterday that he was unaware of reports that a unit of Army Reserve soldiers in Iraq had refused an order to deliver fuel for reasons including that their trucks were lightly armored.

"I don't know anything about that," Bunning said during a news conference after a speech he gave to the Rotary Club of Louisville.

Bunning added that Congress had approved money to upgrade body and vehicle armor. "And I believe that has all been accomplished. And I don't know about your reservists," he said. "Unfortunately, we've had some reports, but I don't know the one you're specifically talking about."

When reporters told him that the unit's refusal was a national news story and involved a soldier from Louisville, Bunning said, "Let me explain something: I don't watch the national news, and I don't read the paper. I haven't done that for the last six weeks. I watch Fox News to get my information."

Told that Fox News broadcast the report, Bunning said, "Not the times I watched it. So the fact that somebody was from Louisville, I know about that."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:06 AM | | Basie! Home

In a state where he has been vilified by Democrats for siphoning votes from Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Ralph Nader was typically unstinting in his criticisms of President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry on Thursday, referring to the choice facing voters as one between "heart disease and cancer."

It was the final swing through Florida before the Nov. 2 presidential election for the independent candidate, who drew several hundred people to a speech at the University of South Florida here in Pinellas County, the area where he received the most votes in 2000. But even in this bedrock of his small political following, Nader's prospects are bleak.

"This year's tough for him," said Mark Kamleiter, a St. Petersburg lawyer and longtime supporter. "They've turned on him. They're so afraid of Bush."

Nader's dwindling support is no accident. Democrats and left-leaning groups have mounted a months-long legal and public relations campaign to keep the consumer advocate off ballots and otherwise minimize his impact. While independent pollsters and some Kerry strategists say Nader could still have an impact in a number of very closely contested states, Democratic officials seem less concerned that he will influence the 2004 election as they believe he did in 2000.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:52 PM | | Basie! Home

Fueled by polling that shows a tightening race between GOP incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Democratic state Sen. and physician Dan Mongiardo, Kentucky has quickly become the most talked about Senate contest in the country among political insiders.

Could it be that a race that wasn't on anyone's radar screen three weeks ago is suddenly on par with Alaska or South Dakota? Or, is this simply an effort to expand the field of competitive races? Or, are the media and Senate race watchers just bored with the same eight races that have dominated the landscape for months? In truth, it's probably equal doses of all three.

[...]

The bottom line is that there has always been potential for this contest to become close given Bunning's narrow win in 1998. However, this race is heating up so late that Mongiardo may does not have the financial resources or the time to go the distance. And, Democrats did not catch Bunning or his campaign asleep at the wheel. Mongiardo's fortunes could change if Bunning makes a mistake or the Democrat gets an infusion of cash. That is not to say that the outcome won't be close; Bunning is likely to win with very little room to spare. We have moved the race from the Likely Republican column to Lean Republican.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:25 PM | | Basie! Home

COLLEGE STUDENTS PLAN TO VOTE IN RECORD NUMBERS, KERRY BUILDS ON LEAD, HARVARD POLL FINDS

Students favor Kerry 52-39; Economy Cited as Top Issue

A new national poll by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics (IOP) finds exceptionally high interest in the presidential campaign on college campuses, and turnout among college students is expected to rise dramatically. Nearly 72 percent of college students report that they are "certain" they are registered to vote and "definitely" plan on voting this November. More than in other years, students believe that they have a stake – and will have a say - in the outcome of the election.

The Harvard poll also reports that Senator Kerry maintains a 13-point lead among college students, and a slightly stronger 17-point advantage among likely voters in key swing states. Kerry’s lead appears to be a function of several factors, including strong support from female voters and Independents, dissatisfaction over the war in Iraq, concern for the economy, and movement of formerly uncommitted voters to the Kerry camp.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:52 PM | | Basie! Home

These are not the best days for Americans, for Oregonians. Our security is threatened at home and abroad. Our health-care system is a mess, and too many Americans go hungry and jobless. Our capital is rife with partisanship and distrust, as is our nation. Our troops are mired in a war that seemingly worsens by the day.

We cannot, and should not, blame President Bush for all of our nation's problems. But neither should we let him evade responsibility for his missteps. He has been indecisive in fighting terrorism but decisive about a questionable war; careless about deficit spending but careful about the interests of polluters, big business and wealthy people.

We have serious concerns about Sen. John Kerry. We worry that he promises much and will deliver far less. We recognize that some of his policies have shifted with the political winds; the same is true with George W. Bush.

In the end, Kerry gives America hope for a fresh start, for leadership that respects regular Americans and for a presidency that can rebuild America's stature in the world.

The Statesman Journal editorial board did not come to that view lightly. The decision to endorse Kerry was made this week, after meeting with national representatives of each campaign, watching the four debates and reviewing the records and potential of the candidates.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 11:49 AM | | Basie! Home

House Majority Leader Tom DeLay has been subpoenaed to testify in a Texas civil lawsuit about his role in using government resources to track down Democratic legislators who fled the state during last year's bitter redistricting dispute.

The subpoena was delivered Wednesday to the Texas Republican's attorneys in Houston after a failed attempt to serve him personally, said Lon Burnam, the Democratic state lawmaker from Fort Worth who filed the lawsuit.

The subpoena calls for DeLay to give a deposition Monday.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 11:46 AM | | Basie! Home

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are locked in a tie for the popular vote, according to an Associated Press poll. Voters seem open to change in the White House — most disapprove of the president's performance at home and in Iraq — but still harbor doubts about making the switch.

Bush's strength continues to be in a perception by voters that he is the most qualified to protect the country, though his advantage has dwindled in recent weeks. Some 56 percent say the country is on the wrong track.

In the AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards got support from 49 percent of those who said they were likely to vote, and the Republican team of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney got 46 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Oct. 18-20 survey, released Thursday, included 976 likely voters.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 11:44 AM | | Basie! Home

Bush 47
Kerry 47

Bush 43
Kerry 50

Bush 48
Kerry 47

Bush 43
Kerry 51

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:07 AM | | Basie! Home

Jonathan Singer: Mr. Vanocur, thank you so much for sitting down with me.
Sander Vanocur: You're welcome.
JS: There is an affliction today among many media outlets of simply reporting on what one side has to say and then repeating the other side. What role could--or should--the media play in parsing the truth from lies?
SV: It isn't our job to say who's right and who's wrong. In the immortal words of Lyndon Johnson, you need people who know the difference between chicken shit and chicken salad.
When I was covering the War in Vietnam, I was skeptical in our involvement; I had been a reporter in Europe and seen what the French went through. But I was able to end my reports by asking questions rather than overtly showing my actual beliefs.
Today, with the 24-hour news cycle--I like to call it the electronic tape worm... it always needs to be fed--it becomes more difficult, as we saw with the coverage of the War in Iraq. As a result, the press is doing some self-examination right now on how they got conned [over the war].
Because of the 24-hour news cycle and television, we're in a perilous situation right now when you can't figure things out behind closed doors.
JS: What role does the proliferation of partisan media outlets play in this? Are we better off with so many voices?
SV: Are we better off? I'm not sure, I'm asking the question. When there were three broadcast networks, there was a general consensus about the news. It seems to me that in a democracy like ours it's important to have a consensus, and there can't be a consensus as it currently is.
JS: What about the role of the internet in reporting news? More and more people are getting their news over the internet.
SV: It's changing [reporting], none more so than the bloggers. The real question is if the bloggers have editors; the answer is no. Editing is the most important part of reporting. This became apparent in the Dan Rather story.
Who are the bloggers? They got seats at the convention. Who is Matt Drudge?
JS: Can the bloggers add anything to the national discourse then? I think the Rather story and the outing of Congressmen prove your point of the need for editing, but can't blogs nonetheless enhance our reporting?
SV: Sure. It's a free society. Izzy Stone used to produce a liberal newsletter in the 1940s, so it's not entirely new.
JS: Young people are now getting their information from shows like The Daily Show. How do you feel about that?
SV: I'm amazed at Jon Stewart. I think it's terrific they're getting their news there.
I think it is peripheral in a sense. What I have a problem with, though, is the fragmentation of information in this society and the propensity of our reporters to deride our political process.
JS: Much of the polarization comes from the fall of the Rockefeller Republicans, a topic I've written about often. Lincoln Chafee has indicated he can't vote for President Bush; Edward Brooke wrote an editorial in the New York Times on the radical direction of the party; a group led by Linwood Holton called Come Back to the Mainstream has attacked the party. What are your feelings on this?
SV: I have talked to Republican politicians in this state who say that many of their Republican constituents cannot vote for President Bush, but that John Kerry hasn't done anything to make them vote for him.
This all began, of course in 1964 with the nomination of Barry Goldwater who wooed religious voters who were uncomfortable with the Democratic Party. Today, you still see many of these voters who feel their values are close to the President's.
JS: During your talk you related the story of the roll former Presidents Ford and Bush [41] played in securing the pardon of Democratic Congressman Dan Rostenkowski, and the "political collegiality" that existed.
I was watching a C-SPAN program this summer on House Speakers in which Rostenkowski spoke of having dinner the previous night with former Republican Leader Bob Michel and former Democratic House Speaker Jim Wright, and that it saddened him that this would not happen ten years from now with today's Congressional leadership. Is there a cycle of partisanship that gets worse at times or is it something else?
SV: I don't think it's a cycle. I think that it's television, that deals with black and white opposites, that inhibits the collegiality.
JS: One final question. What do you think of subpoenaing and possibly jailing reporters Judith Miller of the Times and Matthew Cooper of Time in the case involving the outing of the CIA agent?
SV: I think that's a real threat, and I think the White House--through John Ashcroft--is behind it.
JS: Mr. Vanocur, thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate your accommodating me.
SV: My pleasure.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:28 PM | | Basie! Home

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else?

Total; Def to vote (Last week, Two Weeks ago)
George Bush 46% (46, 46); 47% (47, 47)
John Kerry 48% (47, 45); 48% (47, 46)
Ralph Nader 1% (1, 2); 1% (1, 1)
Someone else 2% 2%
Would not vote 0% 0%
Don't know 3% 2%

As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2?

(Total, Def to vote)
George W Bush 46% 47%
John F Kerry 49% 49%
Ralph Nader 1% 1%
Someone else 3% 3%
Not vote at all 1% 0%

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

(Total, Def to vote)
Satisfied 39% 41%
Dissatisfied 57% 56%
Don't know 4% 2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

(Total, Def to vote)
Approve 43% 45%
Disapprove 52% 52%
Don't know 5% 3%

Who would you prefer to be in control of the CONGRESS after the next election?

(Total, Def to vote)
Democrats 44% 47%
Republicans 38% 40%
Don't Know 18% 13%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 4:17 PM | | Basie! Home

As the campaign heads into its final stages, the presidential race is again extremely close. The latest Pew Research Center survey of 1,307 registered voters, conducted Oct. 15-19, finds President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry tied at 45%-45% among registered voters, and 47%-47% among likely voters.(1) These findings represent a gain in support for the Democratic challenger since early October, when he trailed the president among both likely and registered voters.

Kerry's gains in the horse race are tied more to an improving personal image than to growing strength on the issues. In particular, the Democratic challenger has virtually erased Bush's advantage for honesty and having good judgment in a crisis. Kerry is again seen as the more empathetic candidate, an advantage he held earlier in the campaign but lost after the Republican convention. Bush continues to lead by significant but narrowing margins as the stronger leader and as the candidate more willing to take an unpopular stand on the issues.

Bush 50
Kerry 47

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:58 PM | | Basie! Home

Bush 45
Kerry 45

Bush 48
Kerry 46

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When "leaners" are included, the President leads 49% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.

The President leads by seven points among men while Senator Kerry leads by four among women. On a generational basis, the Senator does best with those under 30 and over 65. The President is strongest with 30-somethings and 40-somethings.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:11 PM | | Basie! Home

The mystery of the John Kerry-Arlen Specter lawn signs in Northeast Philadelphia is solved.

They're indeed the work of national Republican consultant Roger Stone, who has worked with Specter in the past. Specter campaign manager Christopher Nicholas said yesterday that he called Stone last weekend and asked him to put an end to the campaign.

"I made the call Saturday morning," Nicholas said. "We asked him to stop and he agreed."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:43 AM | | Basie! Home

President Bush and Democratic rival Senator John Kerry remain tied for a third day as the race for the White House heads into its final two weeks, with each candidate garnering 46% of the vote, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1213 likely voters was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday (October 17-19, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

[...]

Pollster John Zogby: “It's still neck and neck, folks, and targeting is intense. With Bush and Kerry now tied among seniors, small wonder that Kerry is pushing hard on social security. Recall that in 2000 when Gore faced the same dilemma, he closed out the race winning seniors pressing the social security button. Bush’s lead among armed forces’ families is strong—maybe Sinclair hears the call to reinforce. Similarly, Kerry’s growing young voter appeal can only be helped by the ‘draft.’ Two new items to note: Among newly registered voters Kerry leads 52% to 38%; among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%. These two groups bear watching.”

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:37 AM | | Basie! Home

More than two dozen top fund-raisers for President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are current or former senior managers of companies punished for trading with Iran or Saddam Hussein's Iraq — including the chairman of Bush's Homeland Security Advisory Committee and Kerry's fund-raising chairman.

Both candidates say they want the United States to hunt down and kill or capture terrorists. They say those who harbor and finance terrorists are just as guilty. Bush famously described Iran, Saddam's Iraq and North Korea as an "axis of evil" threatening to give terrorists weapons of mass destruction.

But the tough talk doesn't address the role of American companies that do business, intentionally or not, with countries such as Iran on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Nineteen people who have raised more than $100,000 for Bush are current or former executives or directors of a dozen firms fined for transactions with Iran and Iraq during the past decade, government records show. Nine top Kerry fund-raisers work or worked for five of those companies. All held their respective positions when some or all of the disputed transactions took place.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:18 PM | | Basie! Home

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said on Monday that his speech backing President Bush at the Republican Convention in August resulted in a cold shoulder from his wife, Maria Shriver, a member of the famously Democratic Kennedy family.

"Well, there was no sex for 14 days," Schwarzenegger told former White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta in an on-stage conversation in front of 1,000 people.

"Everything comes with side effects," he said, drawing laughter from the crowd.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:50 AM | | Basie! Home

A veteran shown in a new film critical of Senator John Kerry's anti-Vietnam War activism is suing the producer of the movie, saying it libels him by deceptively editing his statements.

The suit, filed yesterday in Philadelphia, involves the film "Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal," which accuses Mr. Kerry, the Democratic nominee for president, and the antiwar group he joined of making up the accounts of wartime atrocities that Mr. Kerry later talked about in his 1971 Senate testimony. The Sinclair Broadcast Group has asked its 62 television stations to show the movie this week.

The veteran who brought the suit, Kenneth J. Campbell, is shown saying he was not at one of the massacres later discussed, and asking another veteran whether he could produce accounts of the massacre.

A lawyer for Mr. Campbell, a decorated marine who is now a professor at the University of Delaware, said the film was edited to take out footage in which Mr. Campbell made clear that only soldiers who witnessed the atrocities firsthand would be allowed to testify at the hearings, and footage in which he recounted his military superiors ordering him to kill innocent civilians.

"It edits little clips to make it look like they're just making up instances," said the lawyer, David Kairys, who said Mr. Campbell was not connected with the Kerry campaign.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:45 AM | | Basie! Home

Favorables/Unfavorables

Bush: 45/47
Kerry: 50/41

Horserace All

Bush: 44
Kerry: 50

Horserace Men

Bush: 48
Kerry: 46

Horserace Women

Bush: 40
Kerry: 54

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:43 AM | | Basie! Home

Less than two weeks before the presidential election, Senator John Kerry and President Bush remain locked in a dead-heat race for the White House, with each taking 45% of the vote, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1208 likely voters was conducted from Saturday through Monday (October 16-18, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: “ The candidates are still in a statistical dead heat, with Kerry making incremental gains in a steady drip-drip-drip that has eroded the President’s lead. Over the last four days President Bush’s re-elect numbers have shifted-- from 47% to 45%-- and the time for someone new numbers have shifted-- from 48% to 51%.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:35 AM | | Basie! Home

The ousting of three Southern Oregon teachers from a Bush campaign rally last week has drawn the attention of national Democratic Party officials.

Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe pointed to the incident to charge that the Republicans are putting unprecedented restrictions on who can attend the president’s campaign rallies. The three women were ordered, under threat of arrest, to leave the president’s rally in Central Point.

They said that a volunteer objected to a statement on their T-shirts, “Protect Our Civil Liberties.”

McAuliffe called the action “beyond outrageous” and said that there never before has been a presidential campaign that is so determined to “keep people away who have a different view.”

“The president has stripped his events of anyone who might disagree with him, which is completely un-American,” McAuliffe said in a conference call with reporters Sunday.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:27 AM | | Basie! Home

Former Republican Gov. William Milliken of Michigan endorsed Democratic Sen. John Kerry for president on Monday, saying President Bush has pursued policies "pandering to the extreme right wing."

Milliken, governor from 1969-82, accused the Bush administration of rushing into the Iraq war, pushing tax cuts that benefit the rich and blocking meaningful stem-cell research.

"I felt so strongly about the direction of this country that in the end, it wasn't a difficult decision to make," Milliken said in an interview Monday with Traverse City Record-Eagle reporters and editors.

Milliken issued a three-page statement of his views about Bush and domestic and international issues.

"This president has pursued policies pandering to the extreme right wing across a wide variety of issues and has exacerbated the polarization and the strident, uncivil tone of much of what passes for political discourse in this country today," Milliken said in the statement.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 4:46 PM | | Basie! Home

• In an election in Florida today, George W Bush & John Kerry tie in fight for 27 ECV & Republican Mel Martinez & Democrat Betty Castor tie in fight for Bob Graham's U.S. Senate seat, according to SurveyUSA poll of 601 likely voters conducted 10/15-10/17.
  
• 2 wks ago, in identical tracking poll taken before 2nd & 3rd presidential debates, Bush led by 5 in FL. Today it's Kerry 50%, Bush 49%, within the margin of error.
  
• 2 wks ago, in identical tracking poll, Martinez led by 4. Today it's Martinez 49%, Castor 47%, still a slight Martinez edge, but close enough to be effectively tied.
  
• Bush had led by 20 among males, now 9. Kerry had led by 12 in SE FL, now leads by 23.

• In an election in PA today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush to capture 21 ECV & incumbent Republican Arlen Specter defeats Democrat Joe Hoeffel & Constitutionist Jim Clymer, according to SurveyUSA poll of 619 likely voters conducted 10/15 - 10/17.
  
• Kerry leads 51% to 45% today, up 4 pts from identical tracking poll 10/6.
  
• Specter leads 48% to 41% to 6% today. Caution: Clymer added to 10/18 questionnaire; had not been named previously (though "other" was a choice). Specter drop from +19 to +7 in 12 days may be exaggerated because of change in question wording. Note: Clymer is not siphoning conservatives; specter had 70% of conservatives on 10/6, has 69% today. Movement in race is among moderates. Specter had been up 10, now down 9.

• In an election in NC today, 15 days to election, George W Bush defeats John Kerry, Democrat Mike Easley defeats Patrick Ballantine for Governor & Republican Richard Burr edges incumbent Democrat Erskine Bowles for U.S. Senate (to fill John Edwards seat), according to SurveyUSA poll of 627 likely voters conducted 10/15 - 10/17.
  
• 2 wks ago, in identical tracking poll, Bush led by 7, now 3. 4-pt move to Democrats.
  
• 2 wks ago, in identical tracking poll, Easley led by 18, now 12. 6-pt move to GOP.
  
• 2 wks ago, Bowles led by 1, now trails by 2 (both within margin). 3-pt move to GOP.
  
• Bowles had led by 6 among females, now trails by 4. Bowles had led by 18 in HH's earning <$40k/yr, now trails by 5. Bowles had led south & east, now trails there.

• In an election in Arkansas today, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 51% to 46% & Democrat incumbent U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln defeats GOP challenger Jim Holt 57% to 38%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 617 likely voters conducted 10/15 - 10/17.
  
• 18 days ago, before 1st of 3 debates, Bush led by 9 in AR, now 5. Bush leads by 17 among whites, trails by 73 among blacks. Bush holds 92% of GOP base. Kerry holds 83% of Democrat base; 14% of Democrats cross-over for Bush. Bush leads by 15 among Indys.
  
• Kerry up by 16 in HH's earning < $40k/yr; Bush up by 35 in HH's earning > $80k/yr.
  
• Kerry leads by 1 pt in urban & rural Arkansas, but Bush up by 28 pts in the suburbs.
  
• Lincoln had been up 14, now is up 19. Lincoln up 9 among males, up 27 among females.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 4:23 PM | | Basie! Home

As Campaign 2004 heads into its final two weeks, Senator John Kerry’s perceived wins over President George W. Bush in the three presidential debates – including the most recent one - have narrowed the Presidential race and underscored the sharp divisions in how voters (who are paying much more attention than usual in Presidential campaigns) see the choices before them.

But the race remains little changed from where it stood before the third debate: today, 47% of likely voters nationwide would choose the Bush-Cheney ticket while 45% back Kerry and running mate Senator John Edwards. This is a large difference from before the debates began, when Bush led by nine points, but not much changed from last week.

[...]

Among all registered voters, not just likely voters, the national race is exactly tied, with Bush at 45% and Kerry at 45%. In a two-way race without Ralph Nader on the ballot, Bush leads Kerry by one point among likely voters nationwide, 47% to 46%. [emphasis added]

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 4:01 PM | | Basie! Home

Today (yesterday)

Bush 50 (50)
Kerry 47 (46)

The Washington Post tracking poll will be conducted daily until election day. Results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of adults, including self-identified registered voters and likely voters.

[...]

This tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day. To update the numbers, a new day's sample of respondents is added to the total sample and the oldest day's sample of respondents is dropped out. The Post typically identifies likely voters as those who say 1) they are registered to vote, 2) they are absolutely certain to vote, and 3) either voted in the 2000 election; or are between 18-21 years old and are closely following the race. This typically produces a sample that is between 55% and 60% of the voting age population.

10/18: 1,656 likely voters; 2,130 self-identified registered voters Oct. 14-17.

10/17: 1,648 likely voters; 2,115 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-16.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:05 PM | | Basie! Home

Mongiardo (D) 43 (39)
Bunning (R) 43 (47)

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 11:57 AM | | Basie! Home

With just 15 days to go, the race for the White House is tied once again. The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry each attracting 47% of the vote. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

The New York Times and Senator Kerry have brought Social Security back into the campaign over the past two days. An earlier Rasmussen Reports survey found voters evenly divided as to which is riskier--letting workers invest on their own or relying on the federal government for promised benefits. As you would expect, there are huge generational differences on this issue.

While the national polls remain fairly constant, showing anything from a Toss-Up to a modest Bush advantage, the state-by-state terrain is shifting.

Today, the President is speaking in New Jersey, a state that was considered safe for the Democrats when the year began... and a state the Republicans think may now be in play. Democrats are also working to defend other states carried by Al Gore four years ago including Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

However, over the past ten days, Senator Kerry has gained several percentage points in the 16-states thought to be Battlegrounds when the year began.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 11:54 AM | | Basie! Home

For nearly 50 years, I considered myself a Republican. I usually voted for Republicans, and I voted for George W. Bush in 2000. I have deep family roots in the Republican Party. My father, Thruston Morton, served as a Republican U. S. senator from Kentucky and also served as national chairman of the Republican Party. My uncle, Rogers Morton, also served as national chairman of the Republican Party, served as a Republican in the U. S. House of Representatives, and served in the cabinet under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.

I cannot in good conscience vote for President Bush in this election. What he has done since his election in 2000 goes against the values I treasure both in terms of leadership and in our nation. He has not done what he said he would do. He has lost my trust and my respect.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:39 AM | | Basie! Home

The top U.S. commander in Iraq complained to the Pentagon last winter that his supply situation was so poor that it threatened Army troops' ability to fight, according to an official document that has surfaced only now.

The lack of key spare parts for gear vital to combat operations, such as tanks and helicopters, was causing problems so severe, Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez wrote in a letter to top Army officials, that "I cannot continue to support sustained combat operations with rates this low."

[...]

Sanchez, who was the senior commander on the ground in Iraq from the summer of 2003 until the summer of 2004, said in his letter that Army units in Iraq were "struggling just to maintain . . . relatively low readiness rates" on key combat systems, such as M-1 Abrams tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, anti-mortar radars and Black Hawk helicopters.

He also said units were waiting an average of 40 days for critical spare parts, which he noted was almost three times the Army's average. In some Army supply depots in Iraq, 40 percent of critical parts were at "zero balance," meaning they were absent from depot shelves, he said.

He also protested in his letter, sent Dec. 4 to the number two officer in the Army, with copies to other senior officials, that his soldiers still needed protective inserts to upgrade 36,000 sets of body armor but that their delivery had been postponed twice in the month before he was writing. There were 131,000 U.S. troops in Iraq at the time.

In what appears to be a plea to top officials to spur the bureaucracy to respond more quickly, Sanchez concluded, "I cannot sustain readiness without Army-level intervention."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:26 AM | | Basie! Home

In a break with tradition, The Tampa Tribune, a Republican standard-bearer for decades, refused Sunday to endorse anyone for president for the first time since 1964.

The paper has solidly supported every Republican presidential nominee since 1952, except for Barry Goldwater, but withheld its endorsement this year, calling the decision ''achingly difficult'' and citing both candidates' deficiencies.

Editors instead published an unusual full-page editorial with harsh criticism of the war in Iraq and President Bush's economic policies.

The paper also was skeptical of Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry, saying his ''undistinguished Senate record stands at odds with our conservative principles'' and his positions on Iraq ``have been difficult to distinguish or differentiate.''

Kerry however picked up endorsements Sunday from The New York Times and from newspapers in Philadelphia, San Francisco and Boston, while the papers in Dallas and Chicago backed Bush.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:13 AM | | Basie! Home

The Supreme Court on Monday ordered a lower court to reconsider a Texas congressional map that could give Republicans six more seats in Congress in upcoming elections and help the GOP protect its majority.

The announcement is a victory for Democrats, but will not affect next month's elections.

Justices threw out a victory for Texas Republican legislators, who had been accused of going far to draw new congressional boundaries after two out-of-state walkouts by Democrats.

States must redraw boundaries every 10 years to reflect population shifts found during the census. Five appeals over the Texas boundary-drawing posed an interesting question: Can political leaders of a Legislature force district drawing more frequently than once a decade, to make more seats winnable for members of their party?

Justices ordered a three-judge panel to reconsider the issue.

The Supreme Court has been divided on how much politics should be allowed in redistricting. In a 5-4 ruling this past spring, justices left a narrow opening for challenges claiming party politics overly influenced election maps.

The court said Monday that the Texas map should be viewed again, in light of that decision.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:47 AM | | Basie! Home

In these closing weeks of the presidential campaign, the talk at an edgy White House is of polls, turnout, swing voters and polls. There are also two story lines from the presidential debates that to the exasperation of President Bush's advisers won't go away: the bubble and the bulge.

The bulge - the strange rectangular box visible between the president's shoulder blades in the first debate - has set off so much frenzied speculation on the Internet that it has become what literary critics call an objective correlative, or an object that evokes large emotions and ideas.

The bulge is in many ways related to the bubble, which is the word Mr. Bush himself uses to describe the isolation of the presidency. In this case, Mr. Bush's critics argue that he has so walled himself off from dissent in his bubble that he was ill-prepared to take on the challenge of Senator John Kerry in their three debates.

Therefore, Mr. Bush had to make use of the bulge, which is most popularly rumored to be a radio receiver that transmitted answers from an offstage adviser into a hidden presidential earpiece. In the last two weeks, the bulge has taken on a life of its own to become a symbol to Mr. Bush's critics of all that is wrong with his presidency.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:14 PM | | Basie! Home

"If the 2004 election for president were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards, the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, or the independent ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?"

Bush/Cheney 45% (46)
Kerry/Edwards 49% (46)
Nader/Camejo 2% (2)
Unsure 4% (6)

"I am going to list the names of a few individuals who are active in public life. After I mention each one, I would simply like for you to tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize the individual, I will then ask you if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that individual. The first name is [see below]. Do you recognize that name?" If "Yes": "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [see below]?"


(Favorable Unfavorable Unsure)
George W. Bush
10/12-14/04 45 46 9
9/20-23/04 46 44 10

John Kerry
10/12-14/04 48 42 10
9/20-23/04 47 40 13

Ralph Nader
10/12-14/04 29 58 13
9/20-23/04 31 55 14

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:43 AM | | Basie! Home

(ASKED 3-WAY WHERE NADER ON BALLOT AND 2-WAY OTHERWISE) Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry -- for whom would you vote -- George Bush or John Kerry?

TotalJohn Kerry 48
Lean John Kerry 2
George Bush 45
Lean George Bush 2
Ralph Nader 1
Lean Ralph Nader 0
(Other) 0
Lean (Other) -
(Undecided) 2
(Refused) 1

Total John Kerry 50
Total George Bush 47
Total Ralph Nader 1
Total (Other) 0
Total (Undecided/Refused) 2

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Today's update is based entirely upon interviews completed after the final Presidential Debate.

With less than three weeks remaining in the race for the White House, Senator John Kerry shaves two-points from President Bush’s lead (Kerry 44%, Bush 46%), according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1211 likely voters was conducted from Thursday through Saturday (October 14-16, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "The third debate is now registering among voters and Kerry had a good day, leading by two points today alone. He now is behind by only two overall. He managed today to regain a good lead among 18-29 year olds (especially 18-24 year olds, who he will need on November 2 to win). He also has consolidated his lead among Hispanics and is now only yielding 12 points to Bush among Democrats.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:39 AM | | Basie! Home

"You know, you're not as fun as you are on your tv show."

-- Tucker Carlson, Co-host of Crossfire

"You know what, you're just as big a dick as you are on your tv show."

-- Jon Stewart, comedian and author of America, and a guest on Crossfire yesterday. (If you missed it, you really should see the entire show. Video clips are available here, here and here.)

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:42 PM | | Basie! Home

First, Democrats deserve credit for keeping their Southern seats in play. The South is fairly hostile territory for the party, especially in presidential years, and very early predictions ran heavily against Democrats being able to hold even a couple of these seats. Yet Democrats recruited the kind of moderate candidates who can win in such an environment. Today, only their open seat in Georgia is a lost cause.

Still, winning control of the Senate is a tall, but not completely impossible, order. To win a majority, Democrats would need to win six of the eight seats if Kerry is elected, thus allowing Sen. John Edwards to cast tie-breaking votes. If the president is re-elected, Democrats would need to win seven of the eight seats. In short, Democrats have about a 30 percent of gaining a majority in November.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:26 PM | | Basie! Home

In the South Dakota Senate race, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and former Congressman John Thune are tied.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds both men attracting 49% of the vote. Daschle is supported by 52% of women while Thune earns the vote from 52% of men.

[...]

The previous Rasmussen Reports survey, conducted in late September, found Thune with a four-percentage point lead, 50% to 46%. In early September, Thune had a three-point advantage.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:18 PM | | Basie! Home

The race for the White House remains deadlocked, 48% for George W. Bush and 46% for John Kerry, among likely voters, according to a TIME Poll taken Oct. 14-15, 2004.

Almost 1 in 3 voters (30%) said the debates made them more likely to vote for Kerry, compared to only 17% more likely to vote for Bush.

In a two-way matchup, the presidential race remains in a dead heat in the latest Newsweek Poll. Among registered voters, Bush/Cheney gets 48 percent and Kerry/Edwards 47 percent of the vote, a two-point gain for the Bush/Cheney ticket from the Newsweek Poll two weeks ago. Among likely voters, the Bush/Cheney lead opens up, 50 vs. 45 percent for Kerry/Edwards and among swing voters, Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 39 vs. 33 percent, with 28 percent undecided, the poll shows.

On Saturday morning, the latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Two-thirds of the interviews for today's Tracking Poll were conducted following Wednesday night's Presidential Debate.

When the year began, it was widely expected that the President would do better among Investors than non-Investors. However, as of today, the Investor Class is evenly divided. Among those who own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds, 48% will vote for the President and 47% for Senator Kerry.

Bush 50%
Kerry 47%

Three days after the final presidential debate, President Bush retains his four-point lead over Senator John Kerry, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1211 likely voters was conducted from Wednesday through Friday (October 13-15, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: “Bush led by 4 today-- the first full day sample after the debate. Kerry gets 81% of support among Democrats while Bush gets 14%, but Bush gets 92% among Republican to Kerry's 5%-- and, of course, the two are tied among Independents and also Catholics.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:16 PM | | Basie! Home

President Bush's New England campaign chairman stepped down Friday after the Democrats accused him of taking part in the jamming of their telephone lines on Election Day 2002.

"The Democrats' allegations against me are without merit," James Tobin said in the statement. "But to avoid any harm to the campaign from their underhanded tactics, I elected earlier this week to step down from my voluntary position with the campaign."

[...]

In 2002, Tobin was Northeast political director for the Republican Senatorial Committee.

Among the races affected by the phone-jamming was the Senate contest between Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Rep. John E. Sununu. The race had been considered a cliff-hanger, but Sununu wound up winning by about 20,000 votes.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 1:43 PM | | Basie! Home

When Eric Sample of the Multnomah County Elections Division picked up the last of the new voter registration forms at the post office after the Tuesday registration deadline, he knew his office was in for a shock.

"They kept bringing out tray after tray after tray of the registration forms," Sample recalled. "I remember thinking: It's a good thing I brought the station wagon."

Sample said the more than 413,000 residents who signed up for the Nov. 2 general election already have eclipsed the record from 1996 by more than 5,000. Officials have several thousand more registration forms to count. "It's been overwhelming in terms of the absolute numbers," Sample said.

State elections officials said counties across the state are dealing with a record voter registration. Officials expect the statewide total of registered voters to eclipse the 2 million mark. In 1996 and 1998, elections officials recorded 1.96 million voters.

Statewide, about 32,690 students -- new voters or voters who had changed addresses since the last election -- registered through efforts of a coalition of student groups, including the Oregon Student Association, the Oregon State Public Interest Research Group and student governments at public universities and community colleges.

That topped the roughly 24,000 students registered before the 2000 election, said Arlie Adkins, communications director for the Oregon Student Association.

The nonpartisan effort began immediately after the May primary and netted the largest number of registrations -- 7,669 -- at the University of Oregon in Eugene. "This is really showing students that collectively they have quite a lot of power," he said.

Another source of new voters has been the state's steadily growing number of immigrants. The latest Census Bureau estimates show that in the past three years, Oregon's Latino population grew by nearly 20 percent, and the Asian American population increased by 16 percent [emphasis added].

Although not all new immigrants are U.S. citizens, many are becoming naturalized and joining voter rolls. A 2003 Democratic National Committee analysis found that twice as many Latinos in Oregon voted in the 2002 primary elections as did in the 2000 presidential election.

This year, community and party-based efforts have targeted Asian American, Latino and Russian-speaking voters.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:43 AM | | Basie! Home

"If the 2004 election for president were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards, the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, or the Libertarian ticket of Michael Badnarik and Richard Campagna?"

Bush/Cheney 53%
Kerry/Edwards 40%
Badnarik/Campagna 1%
Unsure 1%

"If the 2004 election for governor were held today, would you vote for Joe Kernan, the Democrat, or Mitch Daniels, the Republican, or Kenn Gividen, the Libertarian?"

Kernan 43%
Daniels 46%
Gividen 2%
Unsure 9%

"If the 2004 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Evan Bayh, the Democrat, or Marvin Scott, the Republican?"

Bayh 63%
Scott 27%
Unsure 10%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:55 AM | | Basie! Home

The latest survey conducted at Ohio University's Scripps Survey Research Center offers a rare glimpse into the extremely close 2004 presidential race and the impact that different assumptions about likely voters have on survey results.

[...]

At this broadest level of public opinion research, President Bush is doing poorly. Only 43 percent approve of the job he has done as president and 53 percent say it's "time for someone new" when asked, "Would you like to see President Bush be re-elected to a second term?"

Among this vast group, Kerry is trouncing Bush 50 percent to 44 percent. (Six percent are either undecided or support a third party candidate like Ralph Nader.)

But registered voters are an important and quite different subgroup of America's residents. Poll respondents were asked: "Are you currently registered to vote at the address where you now live?" One out of seven respondents answered "No" to this. Registered voters tend to be older than average, are more likely to have children and more likely to own their own homes.

Among 867 registered voters in the survey, the race tightens slightly with Kerry at 50 percent and Bush at 45 percent.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:21 PM | | Basie! Home

The House Democratic leader Thursday asked for an investigation of alleged threatening remarks made to the ethics committee chairman by GOP lawmakers.

Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, in a letter to Speaker Dennis Hastert, asked the House ethics committee to investigate the comments allegedly made to its chairman, Joel Hefley, R-Colo. The comments apparently followed release of a report last week that criticized the conduct of Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas.

The Capitol newspaper The Hill quoted Hefley as saying: "I've been attacked; I've been threatened" by Republican lawmakers. The newspaper did not say who made the remarks, but Hefley separately told reporters he was not threatened by GOP leaders.

Pelosi wrote the speaker, "To uphold the integrity of the ethics process, I ask you to join with me in asking the committee to empanel an investigative subcommittee to immediately investigate Mr. Hefley's allegation."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:10 PM | | Basie! Home

• In an election for President in Oregon today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 53% to 44%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 628 likely voters conducted 10/9 - 10/11.
  
• 3 wks ago, before debates, Bush led by 1 in or. Kerry is up 6, Bush down 4. Surveyusa post-debate polls in Oregon show Kerry won 1st 2 prez debates & Edwards won VP clash.
  
• 3 wks ago, Bush led by 3 among males, now leads by 2. Then, Bush & Kerry were tied among females, now Kerry is up 19 pts among females. Gender gap up from 3 to 21 pts.
  
• 3 wks ago, Kerry led by 18 among moderates, now 36. Then, Bush led by 9 in military HH's. Now Kerry leads by 7.
  
• Bush leads by 4 in suburban OR & by 9 in rural OR. Kerry leads by 41 pts in urban OR.

• In an election in SC today, the day of the 3rd Presidential debate & 10 days after the most recent U.S. Senate debate in SC, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 55% to 42% & Republican Jim DeMint barely hangs on to defeat Democrat Inez Tenenbaum 46% to 43%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 563 likely voters, conducted 10/10 - 10/12.
  
• 8 wks ago, DeMint led by 13. 3 wks ago, he led by 12, now by 3. In past 3 wks, DeMint has lost 5, Tenenbaum has gained 4, a 9-pt swing. Then: DeMint led by 25 among males, now 12. Then Tenenbaum led by 1 among females, now 5. 14% of Bush voters cross-over.
  
• 3 wks ago, at the peak of Bush's post convention & swift-boat bounce, Bush led by 20 in SC, now 13. Bush now up 23 among men, up 5 among women. Indys break 3:2 for Bush.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:46 PM | | Basie! Home

Today 48 percent of likely voters have a basically favorable opinion of Kerry, up nine points since before the first debate; 43 percent view him unfavorably. In the same time Bush's unfavorable rating has gained six points — 40 percent then, 46 percent now. Bush's advantage on favorability, the most basic measure of a public figure's popularity, is gone.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 2:35 PM | | Basie! Home

And where Mr Bush pleased his base, Mr Kerry sounded bipartisan (“I don't care whether an idea is a Republican idea or a Democrat idea”). He said he thought the president did “a terrific job” after September 11th (though he then went on to say that he had messed it up). He quoted the Bible (“Faith without works is dead”) and talked about being an altar boy.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 10:38 AM | | Basie! Home

I keep getting emails asserting that Kerry's mentioning of Mary Cheney is somehow offensive or gratuitous or a "low blow". Huh? Mary Cheney is out of the closet and a member, with her partner, of the vice-president's family. That's a public fact. No one's privacy is being invaded by mentioning this. When Kerry cites Bush's wife or daughters, no one says it's a "low blow." The double standards are entirely a function of people's lingering prejudice against gay people. And by mentioning it, Kerry showed something important. This issue is not an abstract one. It's a concrete, human and real one. It affects many families, and Bush has decided to use this cynically as a divisive weapon in an election campaign. He deserves to be held to account for this - and how much more effective than showing a real person whose relationship and dignity he has attacked and minimized? Does this makes Bush's base uncomfortable? Well, good. It's about time they were made uncomfortable in their acquiescence to discrimination. Does it make Bush uncomfortable? Even better. His decision to bar gay couples from having any protections for their relationships in the constitution is not just a direct attack on the family member of the vice-president. It's an attack on all families with gay members - and on the family as an institution. That's a central issue in this campaign, a key indictment of Bush's record and more than relevant to any debate. For four years, this president has tried to make gay people invisible, to avoid any mention of us, to pretend we don't exist. Well, we do. Right in front of him.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:26 AM | | Basie! Home

Bush blinked less frequently overall than Kerry during the question-and-answer period. Kerry blinked about 54 times a minute, with a rate of 30 to 50 blinks per minute indicating a normal stress level. Bush's rate was 28 blinks a minute, although Tecce pointed out that he was far less steady, blinking very slowly at some times and very quickly at others, revealing an attempt to maintain control.

Both men looked down more than they had in previous debates, indicating they were to keep themselves under control, Tecce said. In last night's debate, as in the first one, Bush's blink rate skyrocketed during his closing address, with 101 blinks per minute to Kerry's 61 per minute, revealing a higher stress level than the Democrat's.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:20 AM | | Basie! Home

If you're looking for Vice President Dick Cheney's photo and statement in the Oregon Voters' Pamphlet, it's not there.

Fred Neal, pamphlet supervisor at the state Elections Division, said Wednesday that the 40-page booklet, mailed to Oregon voters Tuesday night, lacks a separate section on President George W. Bush's running mate because Republicans decided not to file the material.

"I'm confident it was a conscious decision," Neal said.

Tracey Schmitt, western spokeswoman for the Bush-Cheney campaign, confirmed Neal's conclusion.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:53 AM | | Basie! Home

A state court knocked Ralph Nader off Pennsylvania's presidential ballot Wednesday, citing legal problems with his nomination papers that left him thousands of signatures short of the number he needed.

Calling the petitions "rife with forgeries," Commonwealth Court President Judge James Garner Colins said that fewer than 19,000 of the more than 51,000 signatures that Nader's supporters submitted were valid. Nader needed at least 25,697 to be listed on the ballot as an independent candidate.

"I am compelled to emphasize that this signature-gathering process was the most deceitful and fraudulent exercise ever perpetrated upon this court," Colins said in a 15-page ruling that climaxed a two-week review in multiple courtrooms across the state.

"The conduct of the candidates, through their representatives (not their attorneys), shocks the conscience of the court," he said. "In reviewing signatures, it became apparent that, in addition to signing names such as `Mickey Mouse,' 'Fred Flintstone,' 'John Kerry,' and the ubiquitous 'Ralph Nader,' there were thousands of names that were created at random and then randomly assigned either existent or nonexistent addresses by the circulators."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 9:02 PM | | Basie! Home

President Bush was, again, on the defensive from the outset. He spent so much time portraying Kerry as a "Massachusetts liberal" or taking cheap shots, he rarely answered a question directly. When stuck, Bush resorted to sweeping ideological generalizations, in effect saying freedom and tax cuts would solve all of America's problems. When really stuck, he resorted to bad jokes.

By contrast, Kerry was in command of nearly every subject. He was especially strong on the expired assault weapons ban, the minimum wage and homeland security. My only significant criticism is that Kerry rarely explained the details of "my plan," but that's somewhat understandable given the limited time format.

The bottom line is that Kerry not only sounded more presidential, but looked presidential. By this measure, he was the clear winner.

Over all, Kerry cemented his new image as calmer and, oddly enough, more presidential than Bush. But Bush critically regained his likeability, his rapport with people, and his moderate voice. What all this means I'm not sure.

CBS News Poll

Kerry 39
Bush 25

CNN Focus Group

24 on the panel

Kerry 10
Bush 7
Undecided 7

ABC News

Kerry 42
Bush 41

38% GOP
30% Dem
28% Independent

Kerry 52%
Bush 39%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 7:43 PM | | Basie! Home

John Kerry holds a slight lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Oregon according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 44% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry is at 50%, Bush is at 44%, and 6% are undecided. In July, Kerry was at 50% and Bush was at 43% in a two-way race.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Oregon. Of the 600 likely voters, 37% are registered as Republicans, 40% are registered as Democrats, and 23% are registered with a minor party or no party. The interviews were conducted October 9 through 12, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 12:45 PM | | Basie! Home

Have you seen the photograph showing the bulge under the back of George Bush's jacket during the TV debate last Friday?

(Total, Def to vote)
A fold caused by the fall of his jacket 9% 10%
A radio receiver so that his team could
communicate with him during the debate 30% 29%
Something else 8% 8%
Don't know 53% 53%

AMONGST THOSE WHO SAY THEY HAD SEEN THE PHOTOGRAPH:

In the second television debate, last Friday, TV cameras showed a bulge under the back of President Bush’s jacket. Do you think this
bulge was caused by...

A fold caused by the fall of his jacket 18%
A radio receiver so that his team could
communicate with him during the debate 49%
Something else 13%
Don't know 20%

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else?

Total; Def to vote (Last week, Two Weeks ago)
George Bush 44% (46, 46); 46% (47, 47)
John Kerry 46% (47, 45); 47% (47, 46)
Ralph Nader 1% (1, 2); 1% (1, 1)
Someone else 3% 3%
Would not vote 0% 0%
Don't know 5% 3%

As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2?

(Total, Def to vote)
George W Bush 46% 47%
John F Kerry 48% 48%
Ralph Nader 1% 1%
Someone else 4% 3%
Not vote at all 1% 0%

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

(Total, Def to vote)
Satisfied 38% 41%
Dissatisfied 57% 56%
Don't know 5% 3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

(Total, Def to vote)
Approve 43% 45%
Disapprove 52% 52%
Don't know 5% 3%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:57 AM | | Basie! Home

Kerry 45%
Bush 45%
Nader 1.5%
Badnarik .5%
Peroutka .2%
Cobb .1%
Other .8%
Undecided 7%

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:46 AM | | Basie! Home

The United States should have quickly reformed the Iraqi army after most of its soldiers walked off the battlefield and got them "working for us," retired Gen. Tommy Franks said Tuesday.

Franks, who oversaw combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, told reporters it may have taken "a couple billion dollars," but that he would have liked to have put Iraqi troops "back on the payroll right quick."

"What we could have done better, should have done better, what I would have liked to have seen done better, once they were gone, is hire them back," the former Army general said before making his first Florida campaign appearance for President Bush.

Neither Bush nor Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld should be blamed because Congress never appropriated money for that purpose and no other country offered to pay for it, Franks said.

"I fault bureaucratic behavior in my own country and in the international community," he said.