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Tuesday, April 12, 2005

The Jews Didn't Defect the Dem Coalition in 2004

For all of the talk abour President Bush's close relations to Ariel Sharon and staunch support for the state of Israel, it looks like American Jews didn't give up on the Democratic Party in 2004. Ronald Brownstein has the story for Los Angeles Times:

Before the election, some analysts predicted that Bush would make substantial gains among Jews because of his strong support for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who met with the president Monday at Bush's Texas ranch.

But the initial Edison/Mitofsky National Election Pool exit poll had found that Jews preferred the Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, over Bush by 74% to 25%. The Los Angeles Times exit poll had found an almost identical 74% to 26% split among Jews.

The new study, conducted by the Solomon Project, a Washington-based group encouraging civil involvement by the Jewish community, reexamined the results by factoring in hundreds of Jews that the National Election Pool surveyed in state exit polls but did not include in its original number. After that recalculation, the study concluded that Kerry's percentage was slightly larger than originally reported, at about 77% to 22%.

Either way, the results represented only a small change from the last few elections. In 2000, exit polls found that Al Gore won 79% of the Jewish vote; Bill Clinton carried 78% in 1996 and a record 80% in 1992. Republicans held Democrats to two-thirds or less of the Jewish vote during the three elections of the 1980s — Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and George H.W. Bush in 1988.
If you're interested, check out the specific data from the Solomon Project.
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