Bush's second term could spell trouble for the GOP

The Economist, in a delightfully free article entitled "Trouble and strife", notes that although the President was highly successful in his first term by rolling over opposition both from the Democrats and from within his own party his second term might not be quite as easy. They write,

But the discipline imposed by Mr Bush's re-election drive has gone, to be replaced by worries of losses in the 2006 mid-term elections. Congressmen fret that a president with one eye on his legacy will sacrifice his colleagues' short-term interests for his long-term aims. The first stirrings of discontent are already being heard from Republican congressmen. In Mr Bush's second term they are determined to grab a bigger role in shaping legislation than they played during the rubber-stamping first term.

So the glue that held the two halves of Republican government together has somewhat weakened. On top of that, Mr Bush has set out one of the most ambitious second-term agendas of any president for decades—perhaps since Franklin Roosevelt. By laying out grandiose, nation-changing policies, he hopes to rally what might otherwise be a fractious Congress and avoid the passivity that has led many second-term presidents into danger. But in trying to avoid one threat, Mr Bush is risking its opposite: overreach, especially because his most important proposals could unify the Democrats and strain parts of his Republican alliance.

It would be foolish to underestimate the President. He has shown time and time again a knack for achieving major political scores against all odds. Nevertheless, as Ron Brownstein so eloquently noted, second terms are hard for all Presidents, and it probably won't be any different for George W. Bush.

The Democrats and progressives might be right in showing concern for the next four years; they are in a tough situation right now. Nonetheless, maybe they shouldn't be too concerned.