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Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Two New Polls Could Have Bush Concerned

As President Bush pushes for action on his Social Security reforms, a new poll indicates that the opposition of the American people -- not just liberal groups -- is mounting. The Washington Post's Richard Morin and Dale Russakoff have the front page story:

Most Americans are certain Social Security will go bankrupt but are not ready to embrace changes that would shore up the system's finances, according to two surveys by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University.

Seven in 10 Americans agree with President Bush that Social Security eventually will go bankrupt if Congress fails to act, though most predict that the system will not do so for at least two decades. Yet while Bush has warned of a crisis in Social Security, barely one in four Americans believes that a crisis exists.

More broadly, the polls raise serious doubts about whether Americans are willing to make the choices necessary to fix the system's financial problems. Solid majorities reject both increases in payroll taxes and decreases in retirement benefits, except for the wealthy. Experts agree that without new revenue coming in or less flowing out as benefits -- or both -- the Social Security system will not be able to pay all its promised benefits, perhaps as early as 2042.
Here are some of the details from the surveys:

Survey I

Bush Approval

Approve: 50
Disapprove: 48

Strongly Approve: 32
Strongly Dissapprove: 37
Views on Social Security

Crisis: 27
Major Problems, but no Crisis: 46
Minor Problems: 22
No Problems: 4
Who Does a Better Job on Soc. Sec.

President Bush: 21
Congressional Republicans: 20
Congressional Democrats: 43
Will Social Security Go Bankrupt?

Yes, in the next 10 Years: 6
Yes, in 10-20 Years: 22
Yes, in 20-30 Years: 22
Yes, in 30+ Years: 19
No: 28
Private Accounts

Support: 54
Oppose: 42
Personal Accounts

Support: 57
Oppose: 40
Survey II

Views on Social Security

Crisis: 26
Major Problems, but no Crisis: 50
Minor Problems: 16
No Problems: 5
Personal Accounts

Support: 46
Oppose: 46
Will Social Security Go Bankrupt?

Yes, in the next 10 Years: 8
Yes, in 10-20 Years: 24
Yes, in 20-30 Years: 17
Yes, in 30+ Years: 14
No: 31
There is a lot of interesting data here that could give both sides optimism -- and pause. This is just a smattering of data from these two surveys. If you're a real statistical junkie, I highly recommend you check out the whole PDF. It's real juicy.
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