This summer--odd as it may sound--I'm living in a sorority house on the campus of George Washington University (I say "odd" because, of course, I'm no lady). One of my fellow denizens is a very nice girl who happens to be interning at the Republican National Committee.

The other day--maybe it was even today--we were engaged in a rather unlively debate about our predictions on the presidential campaign. This girl told me that she believed that the economic picture, ever improving, will aide Bush in his reelection. Her second--and more dubious--point was that the situation in Iraq will rapidly improve after June 30 to the point that Iraq will no longer prominently figure into the campaign. I'll look at these two points separately.

I think that her first point has some merit. The economy is picking up right now and there are even some signs of modest job growth. The stock market is up and many investors are happy. Nevertheless, it would behoove President Bush to keep a mindful eye not only on the economy itself over the coming months but also people's perception of the state of the economy.

Though jobs are certainly a lagging indicator of the market, people's perception of and confidence in the market lag even further. One need only hearken back to 1992 to see this pattern. Though the economy was well out of recession by October of that year, people still had the recession of the spring and summer on their minds when they punched their ballots in November. As a result, Bush 41 was handily defeated by William Jefferson Clinton.

With the market beginning to pickup now (about five months before the election--it is conceivable that people's perception of the economy--now at startlingly low levels--will even out once again. If no catastrophic event occurs in the interceding months to curtail growth of the economy, surely people's confidence in President Bush's ability to oversee the US economy will increase. However, this is not a given.

With the situation in the Saudi Arabia tenuous at best, oil prices could further rise. Even at their current levels--twice what they were not long ago--they are sure to increase inflation. With the dollar also weaker than it has been in years, the overall price level very well might increase. As a result, we could see inflation setting in within the next five months before the election. This is a problem that could cause the President more grief than mere public perception.

The other point made by my housemate was that she believed that the situation in Iraq will improve to such an extent after June 30 that it will not inhibit Bush's opportunity for reelection. I think this point is much more suspect.

News from Iraq just today shows that resistance is still strong among some communities in the country. While some naysayers--mostly neocons and the less intelligent pundits--claim that the so-called liberal media is skewing the news from Iraq, it is important to still understand that anti-American sentiment does not only reside within pseudo-al Qaeda cells and former-Saddam loyalists within the country. When the reality that the Americans will be ceding little control or sovreignty to the Iraqis after June 30 sets in, the Iraqis will not be happy. Although we may think that they are stupid, it is preposterous to think that they will not realize that the Americans are still in control. As a result, it is also a great misconception that the situation will rapidly improve. Clearly, June 30 is no panacea, regardless of the spin the Administration is attempting to lay down.

With the situation in Iraq still bad in five months, any improvement in the economy could prove meaningless. Look at Johnson in 1968. The economy was great (though it would soon balloon into inflationary times), but the situation in Vietnam made it impossible for either him or his deputy Humphrey to win.

Now hold on, I'm sure you're saying. This is no Vietnam. You're right! It isn't!!! But, support for the war is waning quickly (check out the LA Times poll), just as it was in 1968, and apprehensions about chaos in Iraq--not to mention American boys and girls returning in caskets--could once again override public feelings about the economy. So maybe my housemate isn't so correct after all...