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Wednesday, June 30, 2004

Kerry's VP Pick

So, there has been a little bit of talk about who John Kerry will select as his running mate... no wait, there's been quite a bit of talk. Even today, Matt Drudge (whose journalistic ethics are at best non-existant) claims that Hillary Clinton will be the surpise pick for VP. Guess what, Matt? It's not gonna happen!

All of this Hillary talk serves one purpose and one purpose alone: rallying the uber-right wingers. Whenever the Clinton-haters hear her name, they froth at the mouth and seem to be willing to do anything to stop her. With such ardent feelings, Drudge most likely thinks that he can drum up a little more support to stop the President's declining approval #'s. I'll tell you something, though, Matt: It's not gonna happen!

So, Jonathan, who will be the Democrat's Vice Presidential nominee, then???

If there was one person who I wanted to be the Presidential nominee for the Dems, it was General Wesley Clark. I worked hard campaigning for him, running the campaign on my campus, working on the LA-wide campaign, and heading to Arizona for the statewide primary on February 3. It was all for naught, though. John Kerry outflanked him in Iowa, so that was it for Wes Clark... or was it?

Probably it was.

Clark certainly would be a good fit for a Kerry ticket, especially because Iraq and the mishandling of the War on Terror are becoming the central tenets of Kerry's campaign. Clark is probably the best VP candidate, save General Anthony Zinni, to attack the Bush camp on National Security (maybe Joe Biden or Chuck Hagel are up there, too). However, if the primaries showed us anything, they showed us that you have to be an experienced candidate to do well on the national level. For this reason, primarily, Wes Clark will also not be selected.

Joe Biden would also be a good VP candidate. His bad hairplugs aside, the main defect holding him back is the same problem that plagued him 16 years ago--plagarism (he copied a speech on the Senate floor). So I guess by my logic, Biden is also out. So, who are we left with?

I'm going to go ahead and skip John Edwards, solely because I don't believe in my heart that he has any chance at being picked. Save for 1980 and 1960, when George H. W. Bush and Lyndon Johnson were selected, respectively, no close contender for the nomination has been selected as a running mate in modern history--it just doesn't happen. What is more, John Kerry does not want to be shown up in the election (it's bad to have someone who looks just a little bit better up there). One final note on Edwards; there would be a very short news cycle if Edwards were selected. That is to say, the media would have little to report that they had not previously reported, so the story would not be interesting. Accordingly, an Edwards selection would be anti-climactic, rather than surpising, and the news media love surpises.

There is one candidate who has been talked about to some extent who I think is just about the best selection Kerry could make. He has gubernatorial and congressional experience, and he was among the three or four finalists for Gore's running mate. No, I'm not talking about Bill Richardson.



Indiana's own Evan Bayh is just about as good a Vice Presidential candidate as the Democrats could offer in any election (this is why Gore nearly chose him). A moderate from a heavily red state, he nevertheless claims higher than 70% approval ratings. Being a middle American, his soft-spoken centrist moderation will resound well in states like Iowa and Missouri. Addidionally, his appearance on the ballot beside Kerry will undoubtedly help the Massachusetts Senator's shot at winning the battleground state this election, Ohio, as Bayh governed the neighboring state.

As Governor of Indiana, he served well, leading his state to prosperous times. He's been in the Senate as long as John Edwards (and they're equally attractive), so his Executive experience puts him ahead of his Southern compatriot. These are technical notes, though, that only matter to a small degree.

In elections, spin is extremely important, and the candidate who is best able to use the media generally wins. It is for this reason that it is important for Kerry to choose a candidate that commands the media's attention for at least a few days (and hopefully a week). If Kerry selects a VP nominee who will keep the Democrats in the news for one or two news cycles (positive news, hopefully), this will certainly boost Kerry's image and create added excitement heading into the convention. Evan Bayh is exactly the man to accomplish this.

Bayh is a fresh, if handsome, face in the party. Because he is unknown by most Americans, the media will be able to run long biographical stories on him (because the public already knows Edwards, Gephardt and others, they can't do this for them). What is more, Bayh's biography is impeccable.



Any biograpical stories on Evan Bayh will remind Americans about his beloved father, Birch Bayh. Indiana's well respected liberal Senator for nearly twenty years, Birch Bayh was a leading voice in America for many years.

Clearly, evoking Birch Bayh's memory would only add to the public's positive views of Bayh the Younger. Combined with his centrism, strength on National Security (he sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee), good looks and background as a Governor and Senator, Evan Bayh is the perfect Vice Presidential candidate (at least as I see it).

So, will Kerry select:

No, if Kerry really wants to win, he won't choose Hillary, Edwards, or Gephardt... he should select Evan Bayh!
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