Today the Commission on Presidential Debates announced the series of debates that will take place this fall leading up to the Presidential Election. This is really exciting news for junkies like myself as it gives us a small glimpse into how the race might look in five months.

The Commission has agreed upon what is essentially a series of four debates to take place over the course of two weeks. All four of the debates will be located in swing states, the handful of states expected to decide the upcoming election.

The first debate, which will be held at the University of Miami in Florida on September 30, will have the standard format of debates of years past, and will focus primarily on domestic policy.

The second debate, to be held at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio on October 5, will be a Vice Presidential debate. This debate will come exactly 16 years after the classic matchup between Senators Dan Quayle and Lloyd Bentsen (to the day). Of course, everyone recalls when Bentsen memorably said, "Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."



Washington University in Saint Louis will hold the third debate of the season on October 8. The Gallup Organization will select an audience of undecided voters to participate in this town hall meeting in which the voters will ask the questions. (This is the second presidential debate.

The final debate of the season will occur on Wednesday, October 13 on the campus of Arizona State University in Tempe. This debate, like the first, will be formal; however, the focus of the evening will be on foreign rather than domestic policy.

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Now for a little bit of analysis (which is a little harder than merely restating a press release in my own words).

I think that this will be the most significant set of debates in more than twenty years as the nation has not faced such clear alternatives since the election of 1980. Aside from the stark differences between this year's candidates, I think that it is good to look a little deeper into the similarities between this year and 1980.

In 1980, the polls showed a tight race throughout the campaign with neither candidate able to pull away. Although President Carter's approval ratings hit enemic levels through the summer and fall, dipping into the low 30s, public apprehension about Ronald Reagan kept the race close. It was not until the campaign's single debate--held on the Thursday before the Tuesday election--that the race broke. Aided by their questionable possession of President Carter's debate notes, the Reagan team was at their best. The Gipper performed well--not spectacular by any means--but OK was good enough for the American people. Seeing that Reagan was indeed a viable candidate, the electorate swung over the weekend and Reagan claimed a massive victory.

Clearly, we are seeing a similar situation 24 years later. Though I wont touch on the situation in the Middle East and its similarities to 1980 at this juncture, suffice to say that failure to significantly resolve the problems in Iraq could truly hurt Bush in November.

I think the more important issue to look at is public perception of John Kerry. As I've noted in previous posts, people have pretty strong feelings either way about the President now after three and a half years in office. People's impressions of Kerry are less firm today, though. The President took to the airwaves for the last three months attempting to portray his competitor as a Massachusetts Liberal who's weak on National Defense, an extremely negative tactic that has not significantly driven up the negatives on Kerry. What is more, despite the fact that the campaign seems to be in full throttle earlier than any previous campaign, many people are tuning out so their choice will not truly be made until the fall. As a result, the aforementioned series of debates will be extremely important.

Though many thought that John Edwards was the star debator of the Democratic Primary season, John Kerry is no slouch. In 1996, Kerry was engaged in a fierce battle for reelection against the extremely popular Republican Governor of Massachusetts, William Weld. It appeared as though Weld would sail to election (he was leading by 8 points in one Boston Herald poll) until Kerry proved himself in a series of eight debates. Kerry, a champion debator in prep school and at Yale, demolished Weld point by point and ended up being reelected, much to the chagrin of the state's Republicans.

If John F. Kerry can repeat his 1996 debate performance--and all indications say he will--this race could break decisively in his favor on October 13, if not even earlier after the September 30 debate. Kerry might need such a strong debate performance to prove to the many Americans who loathe the thought of four more years of Bush but are not so "gung-ho" on Kerry that he is indeed a viable alternative. Although he wont have Bush's debate notes like Reagan had Carter's, Kerry's strengths as a debator could give him the additional support to put him ahead in the key swing states, and thus deliver him the election.

The only problem is that neither campaign has agreed to the proposal yet, so maybe Kerry wont get the opportunity afterall...