Although I'm no Charlie Cook or Stu Rothenberg (two of the nation's top non-partisan pollsters and poll-analyzers), I'm going to attempt to do a little bit of analysis here. Here goes.

In today's ABC/Washington Post poll, there are a number of interesting trends to be seen. The first, and some might argue most important trend is that Bush and Kerry are nearly tied when it comes to the issue of Terrorism. Only two months ago, the American public favored the incumbent on his handling of Terror by 20 points over his challenger; today, that lead has all but disappeared.

Many people were surprised that the Richard Clarke charges did not stick immediately to the President; many Democrats feared that the President would be "Teflon" on this issue, like Ronald Reagan was on many. No matter what people threw at him--that he didn't do enough to prevent 9/11, that he cared too much about Iraq and not enough about al Qaeda, etc.--on the issue of defending America against terrorists, the American public strongly favored the President.

I think it is becoming evident that these charges did not merely drip off of the President like grease on a Teflon pan. Rather, it appears as though the American public began to mull the issue of terror a few months ago when the attacks from Clarke, Paul O'Neill and others became public but still had faith in the President. With these charges in the back of their minds always, though, the started to listen more carefully to the 9/11 Commission, and when the Commission began refuting some of the Administration's most questionable claims, people took note.

The tipping point for me, as I believe it was for many Americans, was when it became apparent that not only had we relied too heavily on Ahmed Chalabi for prewar intelligence, the former Iraqi exile was actually in cahoots with Iran. When news reports finally became public implicating Chalabi in truly horrible acts--passing on vital intelligence information to the enemy--the American public had had enough. People were no longer willing to give the President the benefit of doubt.

The second issue is directly tied into this issue. The general public views the President as resolute and sure; to this end, they see him as a leader who is willing to stick by his policies. This positive trait also carries a negative, though.

By thirteen points, Americans view John Kerry as the more honest and trustworthy candidate. This is striking, to say the least. Although the public likes the fact that Bush generally will stick to his convictions, they are increasingly unhappy with the President's tendency to place convictions above fact. Although there have been numerous occasions when this trait has become evident--miscalculation the real cost of his Prescription Drug plan by $150 billion, claiming Iraq possessed WMD--the moment when this charge truly stuck to the President occurred last week, I believe, when is claim that Iraq was tied to al Qaeda was refuted by the 9/11 Commission staff. When asked why he continues to assert that al Qaeda had ties to Iraq after the Commission had essentially disproved this theory, he answered that he does this because there is a link. The American people are getting fed up with this type of mentality, and this fact is apparent in the polling.

The last point that I wanted to note is the so-called "Reagan bounce" that was seen in some polls putting Bush well ahead of Kerry. Although this undoubtedly occurred in the short run, in the long run, the "bounce" is actually hurting the President.

While I'm no Reagan fan--I think he was an above average President, not much more--and certainly would not have voted for him, he was one of our nation's most beloved Presidents, especially while he served. Though he was the man liberals loved to hate, he was not nearly as divisive of a figure as many make him out to have been (his affection for liberal House Speaker Tip O'Neill underscores this point). The fact that he won 49 states in 1984 is a testament to the fact that he drew support from Republicans and Democrats alike.

Bush would clearly like to portray himself as a continuation of Ronald Reagan's legacy--in effect Reagan's third term--and the President was momentarily successful in this aim. During the week of the remembrance for Reagan, Bush hoped to gain electoral favor through people's remembrance of Reagan. I believe this strategy has backfired, though.

After a week of remembering Reagan and region's legacy, Bush is looking a lot worse in comparison. Bush is a much more divisive figure than Reagan--certainly even more than Clinton ever was--and is much more ideological. I think Ron Reagan, Jr. put it well when he offered a subtle attack on the Administration's opposition to Stem Cell research during his father's funeral. The more people think about Reagan--the more they reminisce--the more they will realize that this President continues to fail to meet any or expectations. This is also evident in the poll, as Kerry takes a significant 53-45 lead.

Once again, my thoughts are a little jumbled, so sorry. I'll pay a little more attention when I'm writing next time. Until then, a bid you adieu and a good evening.