Charlie Cook once again has some interesting things to say about the state of the campaign over at his website, CookPolitical.com. Last week, Charlie indicated that although the race is far from over, he does not envy the position the President is currently in--which means a lot coming from the nation's top non-partisan poll analyst.

After debunking Matthew Dowd's 15-point bounce myth, Charlie again indicates that Bush is in a very precarious situation. He writes:

"This is certainly not to predict that Bush is going to lose, that this race is over or that other events and developments will not have an enormous impact on this race. The point is that this race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists. But in a typically Republican fashion, they are too polite and disciplined to talk about it much publicly.

In a funny way, if this race were bouncing around, it would probably be a better sign for President Bush. It would suggest that there was some volatility to the race and that public attitudes had not yet hardened, and were thus still an eminently fixable situation. The dynamics of a presidential race usually do not change much between July and Election Day. This year, however, the race is much more stable than usual, which is ominous for an incumbent under these circumstances. The bottom line is that this presidential race is not over, but the outlook is not so great for the players in the red jerseys."

In one of my posts on Wednesday, I wrote about the relative inaccuracy of polling (based upon a Hill newspaper article), and how polls don't necessarily indicate the actual status of the campaign. I think Charlie emphasizes this point perfectly.

Although the race may seem static right now at 45-45--and thus tied--in all reality, it's John Kerry's race to lose at this stage. As I wrote on June 10 analyzing the LA Times Poll,

"The 44% of voters who are now in the Bush camp are probably there to stay, as are the 44% solidly in the Kerry camp. However, it is foolish to believe that this is the same thing as 50-50. Because people's impressions of Bush are unlikely to change over the coming months, his 44% could realistically mean only 44% support in November (Yes, this could mean 56% for Kerry)."

The Democrats certainly cannot let down their guard at this stage, and I think John Kerry is on the right track by opening up more to the public and exhibiting his charm to try to woo voters. If Kerry continues to present himself as a suitable alternative while staying out of the way of the Bush Administration as it crumbles before our eyes (like Reagan did 24 years ago), he could score a stunning victory come November.