Due to a myriad of issues--predominantly internet access, but also slow campaign finance reporting--this post is coming a bit later than its three predecessors (here, here and here). Taken as a whole, I think they give a good basis of insight into the current status of the presidential campaign in the state of Oregon based upon history, historical trends, current polling, and the state's Congressional and Senatorial races.

Although the current balance of power might not indicate it, Oregon has been a highly competitive state in recent cycles. Though Democrats control the state Senate (which is technically tied 15-15), every statewide office other than one Senate seat (held by the very wealthy Gordon Smith), and four out of five congressional seats, results in elections contested by both parties have been much closer than outsiders might otherwise imagine (2002 saw Democrat Ted Kulongoski defeat uber-rightwinger Kevin Mannix by only 36,219 votes out of 1,260,497 cast as the Libertarian candidate Tom Cox garnered 57,760 votes). Nevertheless, the once-Republican stronghold has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections and is trending Democratic in many respects.

2004 will see two competitive House races in districts currently held by the Democrats. Although they do not show up on the "10 races to watch" lists compiled on a number of political sites, they are nevertheless important seats for the Democrats to retain in this election if they indeed wish to regain control of the House for the first time in 10 years. As a result, the highly-contested attempts of Representatives David Wu (OR-1) and Darlene Hooley (OR-5) at reelection will almost certainly serve as the bellwethers of John Kerry's chances at winning the state.

In this post, let's look at the first district (where I vote), which covers the northwest corner of the state. Wu, a self-described "New Democrat", has represented the district for nearly six years and hasn't faced a real challenge since his first run in 1998 against Molly Bordonaro in which he won 119,993 to 112,827 (also the only race in which his heavy spending was nearly matched, $1,627,959 to $1,367,154, according to PoliticalMoneyLine.com). The Congressman, born in Taiwan, "is the first and only Chinese-American to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives" (link), and as a result raises a great deal of his money from the Chinese community around the nation (about two-thirds of his money comes from out of state). A centrist with strong ties to the technology sector, his most memorable moment this term was when he chose to withhold his vote on the Medicare Prescription Drugs bill until the Republicans had sufficient votes on their side to triumph, and only then voted in favor of the bill (the vote stood 218-216 for about two and a half hours that morning--trust me, I watched it).

For the first time since Wu was initially elected, though, the Republicans believe they have a real shot at taking over the seat. Republicans are in fact so keen on their nominee that that NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds (NY) has labeled her "one of nine Republican challengers deserving the backing of national Republican groups, and the only candidate on the list west of the Rocky Mountains."

Goli Ameri is surprisingly similar to Wu when he first ran; an Iranian-American woman with no previous political experience, Ameri derives much of her support from the Persian community around the nation (like Wu, about two-thirds of her money comes from out of state). If elected, she would become the nation's first and only Iranian legislator. Also like Wu, she has roots in the region's technology sector, which is proudly known as the "Silicon Forest" (the district is home to Intel's largest base of operations, for example).

Without the benefits of extensive polling, the easiest (and admittedly crude) method of gauging the race is by looking at current cash on hand and overall fundraising. As of June 30 (the end of the last filing deadline), both candidates had raised respectable sums of money ($1,576,817 for Wu and $1,309,101 for Ameri). The cash on hand snapshot is significantly different from total fundraising, however, as Ameri was forced to participate in a hard-fought, three-way race for the nomination, culminating with her 48% of the May 18th primary. Currently, while Ameri has $441,755 on hand (a decent amount of money for a challenger at this juncture), the incumbent Wu has a whopping $1,547,431 (a lot for a small state like Oregon).

Wu is not extremely popular in the district, so his situation is somewhat tenuous. Nevertheless, he holds an immense lead in cash-on-hand and is still raising money (over $360,000 in the last quarter). The kicker, for Wu, is that his district went for Gore by nearly 7 points in 2000 in a state decided by about four tenths of a percent. As a result, although he will certainly have to work hard, David Wu should be reelected relatively easily.

Now for the implications the contest in District 1 might have on the Presidential race in the state. Although it appears as though David Wu should win another two years by a healthy margin, the Congressman has never been one to leave things up to chance. Two years ago, during a good cycle for Republicans, Wu faced a weak challenger in Jim Greenfield, whom he beat by about 78,000 votes; nonetheless, Representative Wu invested over $1 million in the race. As a result, we can expect Wu, who has already spent close to $750,000 over the past year and a half, to use at least $2.5 million in his campaign against Ameri.

All of this money spent will surely galvanize the district's Democrats and liberals come November, and every dollar Wu uses for Get Out The Vote and grassroots organizing in the district (not to mention big money towards advertising purchases) is a dollar that John Kerry can invest in another part of the state, or more likely in another state like Colorado or North Carolina that he intends to make competitive.

David Wu's generous use of campaign funds will certainly not make Oregon a shoo-in for Kerry, but it will make the Massachusetts Senator's life much easier over the next three and a half months. Accordingly, because of Oregon's unique political climate at this moment, especially due to the large wallet of Congressman David Wu, the state should not be at the center of national attention as a battleground, and John Kerry should invest his time, money and energy in closer swing states to ensure his victory.

This is the fourth in a series of two articles on the race in Oregon (the series has been expanded)