It appears as though I am coming to the end of the road with this series of articles analyzing the current political climate in the state of Oregon, and specifically, how a number of mitigating factors (Historical Trends, History, The Senate Race, and David Wu's Reelection Campaign) will affect John Kerry's chances in the state. Taken as a whole, I think they provide at least a snapshot into federal politics as they stand in the Beaver State.

2004 will see two competitive House races in districts currently held by the Oregon Democrats. Although they do not show up on the "10 races to watch" lists compiled on a number of political sites, they are nevertheless important seats for the Democrats to retain in this election if they indeed wish to regain control of the House for the first time in 10 years. As a result, the highly-contested attempts of Representatives David Wu (OR-1) and Darlene Hooley (OR-5) at reelection will almost certainly serve as the bellwethers of John Kerry's chances at winning the state.

In this post, let's look at the fifth district, which covers a number of Portland's southern and western suburbs, and also areas out to the Pacific coast. A moderate Democrat representing a somewhat right-of-center constituency, Darlene Hooley has been targeted by Republicans ever since she defeated first-term Representative Jim Bunn in 1996. Though her opponents have tried to brand her as a liberal out-of-touch with her district, such attacks have failed to substantially hurt the Congresswoman, a self-described "independent voice for Oregon." What is more, her more than able caseworkers have ensured that she maintains a good relationship with her constituents.

During the last two election cycles, the district's Republicans nominated rancher Brian Boquist to attempt to reclaim the fifth district; in 2000 and 2002, Hooley won by somewhat comfortable margins of 37,684 and 24,272, respectively. These wins, in which Hooley garnered 57% and 55% of the vote, are to a degree remarkable given that her district voted 48.5-47.0 for George W. Bush in 2000.

Boquist appeared to be a shoo-in for renomination this spring until the Lieutenant Colonel in the Special Forces was called to duty by the Army Reserves. As a result, an open primary was held between Jim Zupancic, a member of the school board of Lake Oswego (one of Oregon's richest cities), and Jackie Winters, a member of the state Senate. The Republicans, when confronted with the choice between the extremely conservative Zupancic and the moderate African American woman Winters, unsurprisingly chose the former, arguably the less electable of the two. Though Zupancic is an able fundraiser with more than $700,000 raised so far, he was forced to run almost non-stop attack ads during the primary, and as a result has only $173,262 on hand as of the June 30 filing deadline (according to politicalmoneyline.com). Accordingly, the Republican nominee will face a tough uphill battle in the coming months.

Darlene Hooley, on the other hand, is both a prolific fundraiser and possessor of a large war chest. Like her fellow Oregon Dems Ron Wyden and David Wu, the Congresswoman is an able and avid fundraiser, pulling in close to $1.3 million so far in this cycle; in contrast to Wyden and Wu, who get more than half of their money from out of state, Hooley receives just shy of 80% of her contributions from Oregon residents, signalling a widespread support for her across the state. As it currently stands, Hooley ranks 34th out of all candidates for the House in terms of current account balance with $1,294,230 on hand, according to politicalmoneyline.com.

With neither the political acumen nor the financial resources at hand, it appears as though Jim Zupancic will not be able to knock off the incumbent, Darlene Hooley. Although no public polling is currently available in the district, the Congresswoman's proven track record of winning in a slightly Republican district against far better challengers than Zupancic leads this author to believe that Hooley should just about coast to reelection. This is not to say that Hooley will not work extremely hard to be reelected. Though she has only spent about $360,000 this term (staying quiet while the Republican candidates duked it out for the nomination), as we get closer to Election Day, watch for Hooley to make good use of her superior resources and fundraising abilities to ensure her reelection.

Now for the implications the contest in District 5 might have on the Presidential race in the state. With Darlene Hooley spending upwards of $2 million on television ads, grassroots organizing and Get Out The Vote in the state's key swing district, John Kerry's shot at winning the state is certainly good.

Al Gore carried Oregon in 2000 by only four tenths of a percent while losing the fifth district by a 48.5-47.0 margin; this would lead one to believe that Kerry will need to keep the race close in the district in November in order to aid his chances at winning the state's seven electoral votes, and consequently the Presidency. To do this, he will need to continue to cultivate his relationship with the independent-minded Hooley to enlist her help in the district.

With Darlene Hooley by his side, John Kerry should have less trouble winning over the sometimes fickle swing voters that reside in the district, and thus will be one step closer to winning the state. Accordingly, because of Oregon's unique political climate at this moment, especially due to the clout of Congresswoman Hooley among the state's moderates and independents, Oregon should not be the center of national attention as a battleground, and John Kerry should invest his time, money and energy in closer swing states to ensure his victory.

This is the fifth and final piece in a series of two articles on the race in Oregon (the series has been expanded, though I think it's done... for now). Stay tuned to Basie! for more posts on US and Oregonian politics in the coming days, weeks and months.