As "ronbeas" reported over at DailyKos, Ralph Nader has once again failed to make it on to the ballot in Oregon. Although he might be able to scrounge up the 15,000 signatures necessary for ballot access in the state (with the help of the GOP, of course), it remains to be seen if he will make a significant difference in the state or even in the national race.

I know many people are currently fretting Ralph's egomaniacal run for President, fearing that he will ciphon votes away from the presumptive Democratic nominee, John Kerry. Although I'm certain he will garner a fair share of votes come November, I think we are all overstating our concerns.

Why might I say this?

2004 is not 2000. Although Al Gore (arguably) had better liberal credentials than John Kerry (and he was certainly the most environmentally conscious major party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt), the base was not fired up about him for a number of reasons, key among which was that they thought there was no way he could lose. [While canvassing in North Portland four years ago on election night, I talked to countless voters who decided to vote Nader rather than Gore solely because it appeared as though Gore had the election wrapped up (with wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida)]. I truly don't believe such voters will once again choose Nader.

A more important point to note, though, is that George W. Bush will face competition from his right in the form of Libertarian and Constitution Party nominees Michael Badnarik and Michael Peroutka, respectively. Both parties have strong right wing followings: in the case of Badnarik, among fiscal conservatives; in the case of Peroutka, among Christian conservatives. Badnarik is even trying to garner the support of the left (like Ralph's unholy coalition with the right) by advertising on MyDD.

Such candidates may seem to be frivolous to us, but they could be just as troubling to the Republicans as Nader is to the Dems. Clearly, minor right wing parties can make a difference. In 1998, the Constitution Party's nominee for Pennsylvania Governor, Peg Luksik, got 315,761 votes, or 10.4%! 2002 saw Oregon Democrat Ted Kulongoski narrowly defeat Republican Kevin Mannix by only 36,219 votes out of 1,260,497 cast in the Gubernatorial election as the Libertarian candidate Tom Cox received 57,760 votes. There are many other similar cases in which Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates have made a difference.

Though Mr. Nader might make a difference in the race by wooing potential Kerry voters, if a similar number of people in swing states vote Constitution or Libertarian instead of Republican, Ralph very well could be counteracted. As a result, though we should fight Ralph Nader and his right wing buddies this time around, I don't think we should worry about him quite as much as we did four years ago.