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Thursday, August 05, 2004

Big Kerry bounce in Economist Poll

This week's Economist/You Gov poll has just come out and it contains a lot of good news for John Kerry. The poll was conducted August 2-4, with 2421 respondents ("Registered to vote": 2027, "Will definitely vote": 1961), and the MoE is +/- 2%.

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? [Last week: Kerry 45, Bush 44, Nader 2]

(Total, Def to vote)
George Bush 42% 43%
John Kerry 48% 50%
Ralph Nader 2% 2%
Someone else 2% 2%
Would not vote 0% 0%
Don't know 7% 4%

As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2?
George W Bush 44% 45%
John F Kerry 50% 51%
Ralph Nader 2% 1%
Someone else 3% 2%
Not vote at all 1% 0%

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

Satisfied 36% 39%
Dissatisfied 60% 58%
Don't know 5% 3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Approve 40% 43%
Disapprove 54% 54%
Don't know 6% 3%

Who would you prefer to be in control of the CONGRESS after the next election?

Democrats 45% 47%
Republicans 37% 41%
Don't know 19% 12%



Overall, it looks like there has been a nice post-convention bounce for John Kerry and the Democrats as a whole. I think this really confirms most other polling showing similar results, and moreover proves that the Gallup poll was an outlier.

I think the best part of this poll is that Kerry is actually doing better with "Likely" voters than "Registered" voters, which is rarely the case for a Democrat. I guess the only thing I can say is that "things are turning a corner" in this campaign!
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