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Sunday, August 15, 2004

Final analysis of Kerry's Oregon sojourn

As I'm sure you've all read already, John Kerry spent the better part of three days in Oregon in an effort to rally support in the state. The trip, which began with an 8,000-person rally in Central Point (near Medford) and continued with 50,000 screaming Kerry-philes in Portland (you can watch his speech here), has been widely heralded around the state. The swing through the battleground state culminated with a small makeshift event in Hood River at which Kerry promised to return to windsurf next week.

This morning, Steve Duin, a columnist for The Oregonian, compared and contrasted the Friday events held by President Bush and John Kerry, and had many interesting things to say.

"They were playing a decidedly Democratic town, so the two candidates had to play it differently. One sought to fill a high school gym, the other Tom McCall Waterfront Park. Thus, Kerry drew more than 20 times as many fans, yet both men left town convinced they'd landed a knockout punch.

"While the challenger went for rock and roll in the public square, the incumbent retreated to a select audience, determined to fire up his loyalists and volunteers. You can understand why. In recent weeks, it's been difficult to go anywhere in the Portland area -- the farmers' markets, Powell's, the Hawthorne district -- without bumping into young men and women with clipboards, asking for your help in 'getting George Bush out of the White House.'

"The only conservatives I've seen on similarly partisan missions in Portland were roaming the Park Blocks last week, looking for signatures to get independent Ralph Nader on the ballot."

The two previous paragraphs provide much important insight into the ground operations in Oregon (and I'm assuming throughout the battleground states). While it's true that the right does have some footsoldiers around the country, they're using a top-down model in states like Ohio in which supporters are heavily restricted by the campaign's bigwigs. As a result, many are discouraged from going out and trying to woo supporters on their own, for fear of being ostracized by other Bushies. Thus, the vast majority conservative activists you see around the country are "looking for signatures to get independent Ralph Nader on the ballot."

In Oregon and around the country, however, the Democrats and their progressive allies are continuing to utilize their distinct advantage at grassroots efforts, so it should be no surprise that 50,000 people (about 8% of Portland's population) showed up to the Kerry rally on a work day. What is more, as Duin writes, "it's been difficult to go anywhere in the Portland area [...] without bumping into young men and women with clipboards, asking for your help in 'getting George Bush out of the White House.'"

The key graf of the article comes at the end of the piece as Duin echoes the sentiment I have written about so often.

"I wouldn't be surprised if both Bush and Kerry saw in Oregon the reflection of who they are and the validation of what they are trying to achieve. But given the thousands who spent the day with the Democrat, I would be stunned if Bush carried Oregon in November" (italics added).

I'd try to write something witty to extrapolate on this idea, but I think Duin said it all.
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