Though President Bush has constantly been leading in Virginia--a state taken by the GOP in every Presidential contest since 1964--recent polling indicates that he is having trouble getting over 50% support in the state. If you check out electoral-vote.com's graph of the state (excluding the most recent SurveyUSA poll, which appears to be an outlier), the President hasn't been over 50% since May.

A new Mason-Dixon poll of 625 likely Virginia voters conducted from September 24-27 shows the President with a lead of 49-43 over challenger John Kerry. While it may appear as though Kerry does not have a chance at winning the state, the fact that the President cannot muster a majority in a likely voter poll--which generally favor Republican candidates--speaks to the Senator's chances at winning the state.

I'm not sure if Kerry is even planning on campaigning in the state, but I think it would behoove him to place some focus in Virginia--especially over states like Oregon and Washington--to broaden his base of possible pickups in the Electoral College and thus increase his chances at winning the White House.