Great story in the morning edition of The Washington Post by Michael D. Shear entitled "Bush Faces Fight in Va., Kilgore Says In Letter" that cements Virginia as a swing state in the upcoming Presidential election. Though the commonwealth hasn't given its electoral votes to a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson 40 years ago, polling indicates that it is perhaps the closest state in the South--other than Florida, of course.

Shear writes this:

General Jerry W. Kilgore (R), who is chairman of President Bush's reelection campaign in Virginia, might be changing his mind about whether Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry could win the state's 13 electoral votes.

For weeks, Kilgore has dismissed the idea. At a rally with Bush in Annandale, he called talk of a Kerry victory in the commonwealth "crazy claims" and vowed that "Virginia is Bush country." At the Republican National Convention, he told anyone who would listen that the Democrats were full of hot air.

But in a fundraising letter mailed to Bush supporters last week, Kilgore repeatedly warns that Bush could lose the state in November. A Democrat hasn't won the Old Dominion's electoral votes since 1964.

"The nation is politically polarized like we have never seen before and there is a chance a liberal Democrat can win Virginia in November's presidential election," Kilgore writes. "Many experts will tell you, Virginia is in play."

Later, he says, "polls show [Kerry] is within striking distance of the President."

Democrats in the state pounced on the letter, calling it a major acknowledgment validating their belief that Kerry can become the first Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson to win Virginia.

"It's huge. It's a profound concession," said Laura Bland, the spokeswoman for the Virginia Democratic Party. "There should be no doubt in anyone's mind now that Virginia is a battleground state because Jerry Kilgore has said so."

Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia and the director of the Center for Politics, said jokingly that "Democrats might want to send [Kilgore] a pair of new shoes -- a pair of flip-flops."

Some analysts may tell you that there is no way that Virginia will be blue this year, and some talkingheads and pundits will say Kerry can't win in the South, but I think this story speaks to the fact that Kerry has a better chance at winning Virginia than any Democrat in recent history. Just look at what Electoral-Vote.com has to say about the state. Even if Kerry forces Bush on the defensive in the state, it will be helpful--though I think the Democrat has a decent shot at taking the commonwealth.

Let's wait and see, though.