Good news for Kerry in Charlie Cook's new Electoral College scorecard as a number of states move from the "lean Bush" category into the "tossup" category. At this moment, Cook has the race essentially tied with 208 electoral votes in Bush's hands, 207 in Kerry's and a whopping 123 in the undecided column.

On September 10, Bush led 222-207, so it would appear as though Bush has lost some support in key states recently. Nevertheless, both Bush and Kerry have solidified their respective levels of support (Kerry's solid went from 95 to 150, and Bush's solid/lean went from 172 to 208).

Here are the changes in the past two weeks, according to Cook:

• Arizona: Moved from "Lean Bush" to "Likely Bush"
  
• California: Moved from "Likely Kerry" to "Solid Kerry"
  
• Colorado: Moved from "Lean Bush" to "Tossup"
  
• Kentucky: Moved from "Likely Bush" to "Solid Bush"
  
• Missouri: Moved from "Lean Bush" to "Likely Bush"
  
• North Carolina: Moved from "Lean Bush" to "Likely Bush"
  
• Tennessee: Moved from "Likely Bush" to "Solid Bush"
  
• West Virginia: Moved from "Lean Bush" to "Tossup"

Additionally, Cook eyes a trend that has not yet been mentioned in the national media: Bush must defend much more of the "Tossup" column than Kerry; of the 123 Electoral Votes deemed by Cook to be in this category (CO, FL, IA, MN, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, WV, WI), 70 come from states the President won in 2000 while only 53 come from Gore states. As a result, it would appear as though Bush is actually in a more tenuous situation than the challenger Kerry; what candidate would want to be forced to defend such a large swath of that should be his territory but now is instead undecided?

Overall, I think the key point to take from this Cook piece is that although pundits try to scream at the top of their lungs that John Kerry is finished, in reality the race is not decided by national polls but rather the combination of voting in key swing states. As Cook shows, Bush's lead in these states is far less dramatic (1 Electoral Vote) than you might guess from some of the national polling, so this race is much closer than many think. Coming from the nation's top non-partisan political analyst, that means a lot.