In what is arguably the toughest Senatorial reelection campaign across the country this year, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is facing up against former Congressman John Thune to represent South Dakota for the next six years. The polls have widely varied over the past months, with Daschle at times holding decent leads and Thune at times barely pulling ahead. The most recent poll, though, shows Daschle in a better situation than he has been in for quite some time.

Jon Walker of the Argus Leader writes up the latest poll commissioned by the paper and KELO-TV thusly:

An opinion poll released today shows Tom Daschle with a 5-point lead in a South Dakota Senate race that observers say remains too close to call and promises more aggressive campaigning by both sides as the election nears.

The phone survey of 800 likely voters - sponsored by the Argus Leader and KELO-TV in Sioux Falls - shows the Democratic incumbent with a 50 to 45 percent lead over Republican challenger John Thune. But the poll also indicates a growing negative opinion toward both candidates. With 5 percent still undecided, and with the poll's margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, South Dakotans can expect the two campaigns to accelerate their efforts to persuade voters and get them to the polls.

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The polling was last Monday through Wednesday, immediately after Thune and Daschle's icy exchange over the war in Iraq on NBC's "Meet the Press." The poll shows Thune's unfavorable score with voters jumping from 23 percent in May to 34 percent last week, and Daschle's rising from 33 to 37 percent.

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Besides his 5-point deficit and the rise of his unfavorable rating, concerns for Thune include results showing 18 percent of Republicans crossing party lines to support Daschle. That compares with 6 percent of Democrats going the opposite direction to back Thune.

Those are not fatal numbers for Thune, and perhaps not even a red flag, because the state has 44,000 more Republicans than Democrats. But they point to an old puzzle for the dominant party in a state that sends mostly Democrats to Congress.

This race is not over, but it looks like Daschle is not in nearly as bad shape as some pundits would have you believe. If Daschle is able to win and the Democrats win four out of the five other competitive races (Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, and Oklahoma), the Democrats would most likely win outright control of the Senate for the first time in a decade.