It's the question my family and friends ask me almost every day: Who is winning this election? Most of the latest polls are all over the map. CNN/Gallup shows Bush over Kerry by 13. Pew finds Bush up by 1. Harris finds Kerry up by 1. Well, here's a little Hardball secret: The one pollster my colleagues and I watch very closely is a guy by the name of John Zogby.

Why the Zogby poll? First, a little history: On November 6, 2000... the final CNN/Gallup tracking poll showed Bush over Gore 47-45. Wall St. Journal: Bush over Gore 47-44. ABC/Washington Post: Bush over Gore 48-45. Tarrance: Bush over Gore 46-41. Christian Science Monitor: Bush over Gore 48-46. Only CBS (Gore over Bush by 1) and Zogby (Gore 47-Bush 46) got it correct. (Gore received 500,000 more votes than Bush... though Bush, with Florida, won the "electoral college" and the White House.)

What happened? Most of the pollsters in 2000 used an inaccurate model of minority turnout. Basically, their sampling model for minorities was too small and the polls thereby underestimated Gore's support. Gallup's model, for example, was based on the premise that election turnout would be 87.5% white and 12.5% "non white." However, according to exit polls, 19% of the voters were "non-white" and 81% were "white," a ratio that only Zogby nailed.

One other important point: Remember the lesson from Florida. In each state, it's a winner take all as far as the electoral college is concerned, even if the candidates are separated in that state's popular vote by a Florida like .001%. So, while some of the national polls right now may be interesting... they don't tell us what we need to know. And what we need to know is, what are the poll numbers in each of the top battleground states (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, Minnesota, West Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Tennessee.)

As of this very moment, John Zogby is finishing his battleground state polls. (He is doing them every two weeks.) The Zogby "state by state" numbers will be out late Monday night or Tuesday. Tune in to Hardball next week and we will have his results (and our best guidance) as to "who is winning this election."

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 3:14 PM | Basie! Home