If I haven't yet been able to convince you that Oregon will not be close in the upcoming election--that almost all factors indicate a substantial Kerry win (unless there is a national landslide in the other direction)--you should read this article from today's edition of the Salem Statesman Journal which shows the state Democrats yet again pulling ahead of their competition. The AP report carried by the paper reads as follows:

Democrats are leading Republicans by roughly 2-to-1 in efforts to register new voters for the November election, according to newly released voter data.

Registration figures released from the Oregon Elections Division on Wednesday show that 74,403 people have added their names to the voter rolls from January to Sept. 1.

Of those new voters, 33,667 are Democrats and 16,801 are Republicans.

The rest have registered as independents or minor-party members.

Statewide, voter registration has climbed 4 percent since January.

[...]

Considering that Oregon went to Democrat Al Gore instead of George W. Bush in 2000 by 6,765 votes out of 1.53 million cast, both parties and the interest groups are counting on new voters to help make the difference in what could be another tight election.

Anyone who tells you that the efforts to register tens of thousands of new Democratic voters across America by groups like America Coming Together hasn't already had an immense impact on this election has a fundamental misunderstanding of American politics.

In blue states like Oregon, the Democrats have been substantially increasing their lead in voter registration. In key swing states, as well, like Nevada--a state in which Republicans have traditionally comprised a larger part of the electorate than their rivals--the Demcorats have taken new leads in registration for the first time in years.

As you read traditional polls that indicate a tied race right now (and especially if you read that Bush is leading by 14 points in an outlier poll), remember that the electorate has significantly changed since the last election--and it appears as though the Democrats are the main beneficiaries of this swing.

What is more, as Jimmy Breslin pointed out in Newsday yesterday, current telephone polling does not call the nation's 169 million cell phones, and a significant number of young Americans no longer use normal landlines. The segment of young voters who only own cell phones is much more pro-Kerry than the rest of the electorate, and as a result could be widely underrepresented in all current polling.

Most likely, if Breslin's theory proves true, Democrats will see a great boost in the polls unforseen in the nation's polling; even if these young voters are not missed in the polls, the Democrats' new-found lead in new registrants could nonetheless prove insurmountable for the GOP, and thus Kerry could win by a more healthy margin than prophesized by any pundits on election night.