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Thursday, September 09, 2004

Economist poll: Bush bounce a paltry 1 point

This week's Economist/You Gov poll has just come out and it contains a lot of good news for John Kerry. The poll was conducted September 6-8, with 2702 respondents ("Registered to vote": 2306, "Will definitely vote": 2106), and the MoE is +/- 2%.

George Bush's bounce among registered voters: 1 point (from 45% last week to 46% this week). As this number is statistically insignificant, one should read this poll as no bounce for the President.

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else?

Total; Def to vote (Last week, Two Weeks ago)
George Bush 46% (44, 44); 47% (46, 45)
John Kerry 45% (45, 47); 46% (49, 51)
Ralph Nader 1% (2, 2); 1% (2, 1)
Someone else 3% 2%
Would not vote 0% 0%
Don't know 5% 3%

As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2?

(Total, Def to vote)
George W Bush 47% 48%
John F Kerry 46% 47%
Ralph Nader 2% 2%
Someone else 4% 3%
Not vote at all 1% 0%

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

(Total, Def to vote)
Satisfied 37% 41%
Dissatisfied 57% 57%
Don't know 5% 3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

(Total, Def to vote)
Approve 42% 45%
Disapprove 52% 52%
Don't know 6% 3%

Who would you prefer to be in control of the CONGRESS after the next election?

(Total, Def to vote)
Democrats 44% 46%
Republicans 38% 42%
Don't Know 18% 12%
This can poll can only be read one way for the President: ouch. In the first national polls to be taken completely after the Republican National Convention and Labor Day weekend, the President's bounce is negligible (Kerry's bounce was three points among registered voters and Bush declined a point). Additionally, notice his overall approval rating at an anemic 42%!!!!!

There are a lot of very interesting internals in this poll as it tracks almost every important issue on the national scene, so I would highly recommend you going through it if you are a wonk like that. If not, take solace in the fact that the President didn't get a bounce from his convention.
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