No... John Kerry isn't ahead in this extremely red state. In fact, he is trailing by 30 points as of the last poll conducted in the state.

There is good news in that same poll, however. According to a Wilson Research Strategies poll conducted for KWTV from September 10-12, Democratic Congressman Brad Carson (whose campaign website link is located under my "Campaigns to Watch" section) is now leading his Republican competitor, the highly conservative former Representative Tom Coburn in the race for the US Senate. Though his 39-37 lead is well within the +/- 4.4% MoE, Coburn has been consistently trending down in the state while Carson has gained some new support.

In the poll taken immediately before the Republican Senatorial Primary for Oklahoma released on August 4, Coburn led Carson in a theoretical matchup by a 46-37 margin. The September 7 poll had similar results showing a Coburn lead of 42-36. As a result, it appears as though Coburn has lost upwards of 9% in the last month or so while Carson has moved up a bit.

This is not a state in which the Democrats deserve to be competitive. Like Alaska and numerous other states, Kerry has no shot at winning Oklahoma's electoral votes, but it nonetheless looks possible that Carson might steal this seat from the GOP. If he can win, as well as Tony Knowles in Alaska (Barack Obama's victory is a foregone conclusion), it will make the Democrat's attempt to retake the Senate much easier.