This week's Economist/You Gov poll has just come out and it contains a lot of good news for John Kerry. The poll was conducted September 27-29, with 2773 respondents ("Registered to vote": 2402, "Will definitely vote": 2225), and the MoE is +/- 2%.

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else?

Total; Def to vote (Last week, Two Weeks ago)
George Bush 46% (45, 46); 47% (46, 48)
John Kerry 45% (46, 45); 46% (47, 46)
Ralph Nader 2% (1, 1); 1% (1, 1)
Someone else 2% 2%
Would not vote 1% 0%
Don't know 5% 3%

As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2?

(Total, Def to vote)
George W Bush 47% 48%
John F Kerry 47% 48%
Ralph Nader 2% 1%
Someone else 3% 3%
Not vote at all 1% 0%

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

(Total, Def to vote)
Satisfied 38% 42%
Dissatisfied 57% 56%
Don't know 4% 3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

(Total, Def to vote)
Approve 43% 46%
Disapprove 52% 51%
Don't know 5% 3%

Who would you prefer to be in control of the CONGRESS after the next election?

(Total, Def to vote)
Democrats 43% 45%
Republicans 38% 42%
Don't Know 18% 13%

There has been essentially no change in this poll over the past five weeks indicating that not only is Bush not pulling away--as some polls might indicate--the race is in fact tied and hs settled in a tie. This is quite different than a substantial Bush lead, which is found is some heavily skewed surveys (like the one from Gallup).

Although Kerry's support is a few points lower than it was at its peak of 48% in this poll, Bush has yet to crack 47% in the survey. For all of teh hemming and hawing about Kerry's plight, the fact remains that an incumbent that is unable to pull a lead against a challenger is in a poor situation, regardless of anything else.