Rasmussen Reports has a new poll out from Oregon that has a lot of good news for Democrat John Kerry. The poll of 500 likely voters, conducted between September 8 and 21 with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%, shows Kerry with a commanding 51-43 lead over President Bush. In Rasmussen's previous poll of the state taken before the Republican National Convention, Kerry led by a similar 53-43 margin. Rasmussen explains further findings from the poll:

Just 46% of Oregon voters have a favorable opinion of the President. Fifty-three percent (53%) have a favorable opinion of Senator Kerry.

In Oregon, 45% of all voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's down from earlier surveys and below his national Job Approval rating).

The results of this poll are very similar to other recent polling in the state. Here is a brief rundown:

• Rasmussen (9/8-21; 500 respondents): Kerry 51, Bush 43
  
• SurveyUSA* (9/19-21; 747 respondents): 52-43
  
• Zogby (9/13-17; 787 respondents): Kerry 53.9, Bush 41.9
  
• Research 2000 (9/13-16; 600 respondents): Kerry 51, Bush 44
  
• ARG** (9/10-13; 600 respondents): Kerry 47, Bush 45

* - Reweighted to reflect the real Oregon electorate.
** - Poll included Ralph Nader, who is no longer on the ballot.

The truth that becomes very apparent when looking at these polls is that John Kerry is over 50% in Oregon, and that's all that really matters. You might look to see progressive 527 organizations moving out of the state soon--like they did Michigan--to redeploy staff and reallocate funds to closer swing states. As I argued many times in my "Oregon: No Longer a Battleground State" series, while the Beaver state was close in 2000, it should be an easy win for Kerry in November and he'd be better served by paying attention to Ohio and Wisconsin (among other states) than Oregon.