Lots of polling out today from Survey USA--my favorite pollster (I think they're the most accurate polling outfit)--after they had polls for Ohio, North Carolina and California yesterday with lots of good news for the Democrats.

Missouri

• In an election in MO today, George W Bush can't shake John Kerry, but Dem Claire McCaskill zeroes in on GOP Matt Blunt for Governor, according to SurveyUSA poll of 660 likely voters 9/7-9/9. Republican Kit Bond defeats Nancy Farmer for U.S. Senate [57-37].
  
• Bush 48%, Kerry 46% today, statistically the same as tracking polls on 8/18 & 7/9.
  
• Kerry up 6 in St Louis, up 13 in KC, but down 22 in Central MO & down 25 in Ozarks.
  
• Kerry up 26 in union HH's; Bush up 11 in non-union. Independents break 5:4 for Bush.
  
• Blunt 48%, McCaskill 47% today, a 4-pt gain by McCaskill in past 3 wks. Blunt up 6 among men, McCaskill up 3 among women. Blunt up 13 with whites, down 73 with blacks.
  
• 13% of Kerry voters go Blunt. 14% of bush voters go McCaskill. Dem up 2 among indys.

This definitely contradicts the eggregiously incorrect polling in the state that put Bush up by 14 points. This state will be close, and this poll accurately shows the status of the race for Missouri. With the margin of error at +/- 3.9 %, this should be considered a tie.

Pennsylvania

• In an election in PA today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush by the narrowest margin & Republican Arlen Specter comfortably retains his U.S. Senate seat, defeating Joe Hoeffel, according to SurveyUSA poll of 697 likely voters conducted 9/7 + 9/8 + 9/9.
  
• Today it's Kerry 49%, Bush 47%. 5 wks ago, after DNC, before Swift Boats & RNC, Kerry led by 12, now 2. Bush leads by 4 in military HH's; Kerry leads by 12 in non-military HH's. Bush up in Western PA, NE PA & 'The T'. Kerry only up in SE PA, but by 27 pts.
  
• Today it's Specter 51%, Hoeffel 33%, with 15% choosing other or undecided. Compared to identical poll 5 wks ago, Specter is up 2, Hoeffel down 1. Hoeffel trails by 3 pts in SE pa, but Specter is up 16 in Western PA, up 28 in NE PA, up 32 in 'The T'. 31% of Kerry voters split ticket & cross-over to vote Republican in U.S. Senate contest.

This isn't a terribly great poll for the Democrats as Kerry's lead is well within the +/- 3.8% MoE (so the race is essentially tied right now). Although I like Arlen Specter, his 51% isn't terrific for an incumbent, and I'd like to see a poll with the Constitution Party nominee (a former national party chairman, I believe) thrown into the mix (past Const. candidates have fared very well in the state, drawing mostly disaffected conservative Republicans). That having been said, for the Democrats to make this seat competitive, Hoeffel must do better in the SE of the state (Philly area) and get his very low name ID up.

Indiana

• In elections in Indiana today, George W Bush defeats John Kerry to capture 11 Hoosier Electoral Votes, Republican Mitch Daniels defeats Democrat Joe Kernan for Governor & Evan Bayh is re-elected to U.S. Senate, according to SurveyUSA poll taken 9/7 - 9/9.
  
• Republican Bush wins 60% to 36% today. Democrat Bayh wins 64% to 28% today.
  
• For Governor, Daniels wins 53% to 41% today, a GOP pickup. Daniels up 2 in Northern IN, up 10 in Central IN, up 14 in Indianapolis, up 25 in Southern in. Daniels up 7 with women, up 15 with men. Kernan up 11 in union HH's. Daniels up 21 in non-union.
  
• 16% of Bush voters cross-over to Kernan. 11% of Kerry voters cross-over to Daniels.
  
• Moderates break 7:5 for Kernan. Independents break 5:4 for Daniels.

Not much to say here other than it's good to see that in this ultra-Republican state a Democrat like Bayh is so highly popular (remember, I called on Kerry to pick Bayh as his running mate some time back). Otherwise, I think the Governor's race will tighten up a bit, but we'll have to wait and see how that plays out.

Kentucky

• In an election in Kentucky today, George W. Bush defeats John Kerry, Republican Jim Bunning is re-elected to the U.S. Senate, defeating Dan Mongiardo, and an amendment to the state constitution to define marriage between one man & one woman passes 3:1, according to SurveyUSA poll of 665 likely KY voters conducted 9/7 + 9/8 + 9/9.
  
• Bush wins 56% to 39% today, identical to a SurveyUSA poll released on 8/16. Kerry support confined to pro-choice liberals in urban areas. Bush in command elsewhere.
  
• Bunning wins 54% to 35% today. 4 wks ago, Bunning was up by 24 pts, now up by 19 pts.
  
• The marriage amendment passes 72% to 25% today. It has led 3:1 since tracking began.

Again, there isn't too much to say about this solidly Red state. If there is good news to take out of this poll, it's that Dr. Dan has cut baseball hall of famer Jim Bunning's lead by 7 points in the last month or so. I don't think he has a great shot at winning the seat, but if he can get up past 40%, Bunning will have to start spending heavily.

Kansas

• In an election in Kansas today, George W Bush convincingly defeats John Kerry & captures Kansas's 6 electoral votes, according to SurveyUSA poll of 604 likely voters conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV 9/7 + 9/8 + 9/9.
  
• Bush wins 60% to 35% today. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 10 weeks ago, Bush is up 4 points, Kerry is down 1. Bush had led by 20 pts, now 25 pts.
  
• Bush holds 91% of his Republican base. Kerry holds 87% of his Democratic base -- but there are twice as many Republicans as Democrats in Kansas. [Independents] tie at 45%.
  
• Kerry up 8 among those who attend church rarely; regular church goers back Bush.

Not too much good news in this poll, but that doesn't mean that there's any bad news as Kansas is about as red as they come (they haven't sent a Democrat to the Senate in 66 years).

Stay tuned for more poll coverage and political news and analysis here at Basie!