Ford Fessenden penned an important article in this morning's New York Times that is a definite must read in this election cycle. Entitled "A Big Increase of New Voters in Swing States", the piece explains that not only are the voter rolls in key states increasing at previously unheard of rates, but moreover that one party in particular is benefitting much more than the other. Fessenden writes this:

A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states, a review of registration data shows.

The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas.

While comparable data could not be obtained for other swing states, similar registration drives have been mounted in them as well, and party officials on both sides say record numbers of new voters are being registered nationwide. This largely hidden but deadly earnest battle is widely believed by campaign professionals and political scientists to be potentially decisive in the presidential election.

Oregon is a prime example of this trend in swing states. Two weeks ago, the Salem Statesman Journal reported that Democrats had bested Republicans in new voters registered by roughly a 2:1 margin, increasing the party's already substantial lead in the state.

The increased Democratic registration in states like Ohio and Oregon isn't the only part of this effort that will surely effect this race. Fessenden has more:

The precise impact of the swell in registration is difficult to predict, as there is no reliable gauge of how many of these new voters will actually vote. Some experts, though, say that the spike has not been accurately captured by political polls and could confound prognostications in closely contested states.

What is clear is that each side has deployed huge numbers of workers and devoted millions of dollars to the effort. Much of it is being directed by civil rights and community groups, as well as soft-money organizations allied with the Democrats. One such Democratic umbrella group, America Votes, says its constituents - labor unions, trial lawyers, environmental groups, community organizations - will spend $300 million on registration and turnout in swing states, a sum that dwarfs the $150 million in public financing the two candidates together will receive for the entire fall campaign.

The registration drives are just the first step in a campaign by each side to get more Americans to vote by using personal contact. As registration winds down, with early October cutoffs in many states, efforts will shift to staying in touch through Election Day with repeated phone calls and visits, and, on Nov. 2, ferrying people to the polls.

The recent opinion polls are most definitely not picking up these new voters--even in their "registered voter" models--and as Fessenden notes, it is unknown whether or not the majority of these people will indeed end up voting. Nevertheless, if these pro-Democratic groups are indeed successful in getting out the vote this November, Bush's political acumen--forged by years under Karl Rove's tutelage--will prove useless against the sheer millions of voters who support his challenger.