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Saturday, September 11, 2004

Nader absent from ballots; who's the real 3rd party challenge?

Yesterday, we heard that Ralph Nader would not in fact be on Florida's ballot in November. I need not remind you that Nader's presence on the ballot four years ago drastically affected the race for the state's electoral votes.

Today, we hear that Nader will not be on the ballot of another key swing state. Today's edition of the Arizona Republic reports that the consumer activist will not be Arizona's ballot because he failed to get enough signatures.

Although Nader might be on Oregon's ballot (which pains me greatly, though I don't think he'll make a huge difference) and he most likely will be on the Michigan ballot, the fact remains that the "independent" candidate might not even be on the ballot in half of the states this year, so I find it quite quizzical that Nader is still listed in most national polls (it just doesn't make sense!).

I wrote some time ago that the real third party challenge isn't going to come from the left of the political spectrum, but rather from the right. In July, I looked at the effects Constitution Party nominee Michael Peroutka and Libertarian Party nominee Michael Badnarik are going to have on George W. Bush's reelection efforts. A bastion of the right seems to forsee this possibility, too.

I hate linking to uber-right wing sites often, but in this case I think it's worth mentioning an article in the Moonie press, the Washington Times. On Thursday, reporter Steve Miller leads his story entitled "Third parties seen as threat to Bush" thusly:

Three third-party presidential candidates have ballot access in more states than Ralph Nader and pose as much, if not more, of a threat to President Bush than to Democratic contender Sen. John Kerry.

The Libertarian Party is now on the presidential ballot in 44 states and the Constitution Party in 35 states, both more than the 24 that Mr. Nader has managed amidst a concerted effort from state Democrats to thwart his bids.

The Green Party, on whose ticket Mr. Nader ran in 2000 and received 2.8 million votes, is now on the ballot in 28 states.
As Kos mentioned over at DailyKos recently (I can't find the exact quote), there is a real possibility of Nader coming in 6th in this year's Presidential race. Nominees for the three other minor parties mentioned in the Times piece could realistically get more votes and thus have more of an effect on the race as Nader. Miller quantifies this in a few more paragraphs:

"We are playing to the conservatives who do not have a party to vote for," said Libertarian presidential hopeful Michael Badnarik. "For example, Republicans have traditionally stood for smaller government, but this president has not adhered to that standard."

The Bush bolstering of the so-called war on drugs, the Patriot Act and the proposed constitutional amendment to ban homosexual "marriage" are all at odds with the Libertarian party line.

Accordingly, Mr. Badnarik has appeared in homosexual-rights parades, has called the move to combat in Iraq a venture based on "fairy tales" and said that "the war on drugs is more of a threat to our liberties than drugs themselves."

And he has done so unfettered by Republicans, even when a recent poll in New Mexico found him earning the nod from 5 percent of voters [italics added].
Kerry might be worrying about Nader's role in this race, but that's a good thing for him. The real question in this race is why the President and his handlers aren't nearly as concerned by the two parties that appear to be outflanking him on the right.
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