Things aren't looking so good for President Bush in the Beaver State. The President and Karl Rove may have delighted yesterday when news came that a Marion County judge has ruled Ralph Nader deserves to be on the Oregon ballot, but the two probably had no idea that worse news was waiting in the wings.

Brent Hunsberger reports on the front page (above the fold) of today's edition of The Oregonian that the state's jobless rate--always high, but previously trending downward--had shot up six tenths of a point to 7.4% in August, a truly horrible number. Hunsberger writes of the consequences of this poor jobs report:

The news surprised economists and threw a wrench in President Bush's campaign to carry Oregon in the 2004 election, political analysts said.

Hunsberger continues to look at the political fallout from this story.

Thursday's numbers could hurt Bush's chances to carry Oregon, political analysts said, at a time the president appeared to be gaining ground. One poll this week suggested Bush had erased Sen.John Kerry's 8- to 10-percentage-point lead in Oregon.

"I think he's an underdog in Oregon in any event, and this is not going to help his chances here," said Tim Hibbitts, an independent pollster in Portland.

Polls show Oregon's economy -- which since November 2000 has had one of the nation's highest unemployment rates -- ranks among voters' top three concerns, along with the war in Iraq and the broader war on terrorism, Hibbitts said. What's more, analysts say, most workers notice the state's monthly jobs figure, especially when the news is bad.

"It makes employed people worried about the economy," said Jim Moore, a political science professor at Pacific University in Forest Grove.

Lisa Sohn, the Kerry-Edwards campaign's communications director in Oregon, blamed the jobs drop on Bush's economic policies, which she said have led companies to outsource jobs and cut health care benefits for middle-class families.

"I think Oregonians are seeing more than ever the need for a new direction," Sohn said.

Tracey Schmitt, regional spokeswoman for the Bush-Cheney campaign, noted that the report shows the state's unemployment rate one point lower than a year ago, with Oregon's economy adding 34,000 jobs since July 2003.

"On the critical issue of the economy, John Kerry's best hope seems to hope for the worst," Schmitt said. "However, his agenda of higher taxes, more litigation and more regulation won't create a single job, nor will his pessimism."

Oregon has been trending Democratic over the past two decades, and recent polling indicates a Kerry lead of nearly 10%, so it doesn't look like the Democratic nominee should have too much trouble in the state. What's more, as Tim Hibbitts said, this jobs report "is not going to help [President Bush's] chances here."

So worry not about Kerry's chances of winning the West Coast (recent polling proves California indeed isn't going to swing for Bush); the Democrat has a solid base of 78 Electoral Votes on the "Left" side of the country. While Kerry can't take this area for granted, it's looking more and more like he can dedicate precious resources to closer states like Ohio and Florida rather than my native state of Oregon.