According to Rasmussen Reports, the only firm tracking the race nationally on a day by day basis (also a firm that provides a larger sample--3,000 likely voters over three days--than just about any other firm), the race has tightened significantly as of late. Over the past two days, President Bush's lead has diminished from 3.1% to a mere 0.6%, which is well within the +/- 2% MoE.

Here are today's results:

George W. Bush 47.1%
John Kerry 46.5%

Rasmussen's analysis is as follows:

Senator Kerry has not been ahead in the Tracking Poll since August 23. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Bush supporters say they are certain that's how they will vote in November. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Kerry voters are that certain.

A number of the unfairly weighted polls commissioned by places such as Time and Newsweek assume that Kerry's support is significantly softer than Bush's; this number was even in the double digits for the Time poll. Rasmussen is more realistic, however, in showing that Kerry has almost as large of a driven base as Bush.

If Kerry goes into election day down 10 points among certain voters as Time indicates, there's no way he's going to win. If Rasmussen is right however, and the amount of certain voters in each candidate's base is the same, Kerry will have a great shot at winning, as the Democrats (or more precisely progressive groups like ACT and the New Democratic Network) have a much better-tested GOTV system. When you combine this with the fact that Kerry was up 12 points in battleground states in the latest Investor's Business Daily poll, I think you'd have to say that John Kerry has a much better shot than the pundits might have you believe.