This is what SurveyUSA has to say about the state of Oregon:

• In an election for President in Oregon today, George W Bush & John Kerry tie, according to SurveyUSA poll of 747 likely voters, conducted 9/19 + 9/20 + 9/21.
  
• It's Bush 48%, Kerry 47% today, a statistical tie. Bush holds 89% of republican base. Kerry holds 88% of Democrat base. Independents break 4:3 for Kerry.
  
• Those who have completed graduate school support Kerry 3:2. All other education levels support Bush. Military households support Bush by 9. Non-military HH's support Kerry by 9. Those who attend church regularly support Bush 2:1. Those who attend church rarely support Kerry 2:1. Kerry up 6 in greater Portland. Bush up 13 in rest of Oregon. Bush up 12 pts in suburban OR, up 22 in rural OR, down 32 in urban OR.

I know for a fact that registered Democrats in the state of Oregon far outnumber their GOP counterparts, and the margin is has vastly widened as of late. To quantify this, so you don't just think I made this up, Oregon pollster Bob Moore reported the day after the Oregon primary (May 19, before this spate of new Democratic voters got registered) that the partisan makeup of the state breaks down thusly: 39% Democrat, 36% Republican, and 25% unaffiliated.

Now when you compare these real numbers--real data, not polling--with this current SurveyUSA poll, things just don't add up right. Kerry and Bush are statistically the same among their parties (89-9 for the President, 88-9 for the Senator), so right there Kerry should have a slight lead of two to three points just from the partisan makeup of the state. Next, when you look at the independent/other category, Kerry has a massive lead of 53-39 over Bush, indicating that his lead in the state is acually quite significant.

When you actually take these percentages and put them up against the actual Oregon electorate rather than the theoretical one created by SurveyUSA, here's what you get: Kerry 50.81%, Bush 45.3%, a decent lead for the challenger in this state. Although this margin is not as large as double-digit Kerry lead in the latest Zogby poll in the state, it still indicates that John Kerry is doing quite well in the Northwest corner of the nation.

If these numbers don't convince you, I have a site dedicated to Oregon politics that finds that Kerry should win given history, historical trends, fundraising in the state, among other things. If you don't believe me, listen to Tim Hibbitts--one of the state's top non-partisan political analysts--who has all but predicted a Kerry win. Either way, I think it's very clear that John Kerry will win Oregon in 2004.