Lots of polling out today from Survey USA--my favorite pollster (I think they're the most accurate polling outfit)--after they had polls for Ohio, North Carolina and California a few days ago and more polls from Missouri, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, and Kansas the day later with good news for the Democrats. Here ya go:

Florida

• In an election in Florida today, George W Bush defeats John Kerry for president & Democrat Betty Castor edges Republican Mel Martinez for Bob Graham's U.S. Senate seat, according to SurveyUSA poll of 607 likely voters conducted 9/12 - 9/14.
  
• 2 mo ago, Bush trailed by 3 in SurveyUSA tracking. Now Bush is up by 6, 51% to 45%.
  
• Then, Kerry led by 12 among women, now trails by 3. Then, Kerry led by 3 in military households, now Bush leads by 8. Then, Kerry led by 26 in SE FL, now by only 7.
  
• Castor 49%, Martinez 45% today. Martinez up 2 among men, Castor up 12 among women.
  
• Martinez up 2 among whites, and up 20 among Hispanics, Castor up 67 among blacks.
  15% of Bush voters split ticket & cross-over to vote for Democrat castor.

With a margin of error of +/- 4.1%, Bush's lead is significant, so this is tough news for Kerry. The race is still fluid right now, but it appears as though Bush is leading in most recent polls from the state. There is good news, however. The Democrats nearly won the White House in 2000 without Florida, and thus the state is much more important to Bush than for Kerry.

Another piece of good news from this poll is the fact that Betty Castor is leading, even if it's within the MoE. Martinez was bruised in his primary battle against Bill McCollum, and the effects may become evident as more polling is taken in the state.

Nevada

• In an election for President in Nevada today, 49 days to the vote, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 51% to 47% & captures the Silver State's 5 electoral votes, according to SurveyUSA KVBC-TV news poll of 526 likely voters conducted 9/11 - 9/13.
  
• 2 mos ago, Kerry led by 4 in Nevada. 1 mo ago, Bush led by 3 but still was below 50%. In past 4 weeks, Kerry has picked up 1 pt, but Bush has picked up 2 & now is at 51%.
  
• Bush leads by 32 pts among those who attend church regularly. Kerry leads by 14 among those who attend church rarely. Bush up 53 pts among pro-life voters, Kerry up 24 pts among pro-choice voters. Bush up 23 pts among those earning > $80k/year, Kerry up 14 among those earning < $40k/yr. Moderates & independents break for Kerry.

Bush's lead right now is within the MoE of +/- 4.4%, so the race could be considered a tie at this juncture. The big news is that moderates and independents "break for Kerry" in this race, which could have substantial effects on the campaign.