"Kerry Holds Slight Lead Overs Bush Among Likely Voters in Oregon"

John Kerry holds a slight lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Oregon according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 44% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry is at 50%, Bush is at 44%, and 6% are undecided. In July, Kerry was at 50% and Bush was at 43% in a two-way race.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Oregon. Of the 600 likely voters, 37% are registered as Republicans, 40% are registered as Democrats, and 23% are registered with a minor party or no party. The interviews were conducted October 9 through 12, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

This is definitely good news, though I have two problems with the poll that lead me to believe Kerry is actually doing better then indicated by ARG. The first is that Ralph Nader is not on the ballot, but Michael Badnarik--the Libertarian--is. Remember, the Libertarian candidate for governor in 2002 got 57,000 votes, a significant amount. The second issue I take with this poll is that it oversamples Republicans, who probably make up closer to 34% of the electorate, with three more percent independents. Either way, Kerry is doing pretty well.