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Friday, October 29, 2004

Can the Democrats win Virginia?

Although the commonwealth has not voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee for 40 years, the Dems still seem poised to make a go of it in the Commonwealth. Earlier this week, The Washington Post carried two articles indicating the Democrats still feel they have a chance to take Virginia, and Saturday morning the Post will carry yet another article showing there is still hope.

Annie Gowen reports in "Va. Still in Play, Democrats Say" (I like the rhyme, Annie) that while the chances are slim, the Democrats could still pull of an upset. She writes this:

Gov. Mark R. Warner urged fellow Democrats at an Alexandria rally yesterday to "Turn Virginia blue!" on Tuesday as they prepared for a weekend of get-out-the-vote efforts in the Northern Virginia suburbs.

"Every vote is going to count," Warner told supporters and local politicians at the soggy rally in Market Square. "What we see here today all over Virginia is incredible enthusiasm, record voter registration. Now it's down to crunch time. We just need to make sure we get out the vote."

Republicans are planning their own rally in Northern Virginia today at 8:30 a.m. at an Interstate Van Lines parking lot in Springfield. U.S. Sen. John W. Warner, Reps. Frank R. Wolf and Thomas M. Davis III and Attorney General Jerry W. Kilgore are scheduled to attend.
Funny, Representative Ed Shrock (ultra-conservative Republican who was outed) was not invited to the rally...

Gowen continues:

"I'm predicting this: I think we could surprise a lot of people," Warner said.

Democrats said they were buoyed by the fact that the party's national committee decided to spend an additional $50,000 on radio ads in the waning days of the Virginia contest.

"They don't waste money," said Susan B. Kellom, the chair of the Alexandria Democratic Committee. "To me, that's the most positive sign in the world."

Warner conceded that that $50,000 was a "relatively small amount" compared with other states, but "people in Virginia have been working really hard and there is great energy. I think they wanted to reinforce that."

Republicans noted that most statewide polls taken within the past month show President Bush with a lead of 3 to 6 percentage points over Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.).
While Bush has always had a lead in Virginia, he has not been above 50% save once, and although that means he is at that magic marker for an incumbent, he does not have much room for error. If Kerry can parlay the support for Democratic Governor Mark Warner into real votes on Tuesday, he could indeed be the first Dem since LBJ to carry VA.
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