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Thursday, October 21, 2004

Charlie Cook runs down the KY-Sen race

For anyone who has tried to follow political races across the nation, the Kentucky Senate race is one of the most interesting in years. Incumbent Republican Jim Bunning--who is in the baseball Hall of Fame--appears to be crumbling after he used a teleprompter during a debate, and though underfunded, Democratic State Senator Dr. Dan Mongiardo appears to be closing the gap. In fact, in a recent internal poll done for his campaign, the race was tied at 43 apiece, not a place where an incumbent would feel safe.

In order to make sure I'm not only viewing this race through rose-colored glasses, I turned to a column today by the Cook Political Report on the race. Charlie Cook is well-esteemed among the pundits and considered the top non-partisan political analyst (with Stu Rothenberg, maybe) in the nation. Here's what he had to say today:

Fueled by polling that shows a tightening race between GOP incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Democratic state Sen. and physician Dan Mongiardo, Kentucky has quickly become the most talked about Senate contest in the country among political insiders.

Could it be that a race that wasn't on anyone's radar screen three weeks ago is suddenly on par with Alaska or South Dakota? Or, is this simply an effort to expand the field of competitive races? Or, are the media and Senate race watchers just bored with the same eight races that have dominated the landscape for months? In truth, it's probably equal doses of all three.

[...]

The bottom line is that there has always been potential for this contest to become close given Bunning's narrow win in 1998. However, this race is heating up so late that Mongiardo may does not have the financial resources or the time to go the distance. And, Democrats did not catch Bunning or his campaign asleep at the wheel. Mongiardo's fortunes could change if Bunning makes a mistake or the Democrat gets an infusion of cash. That is not to say that the outcome won't be close; Bunning is likely to win with very little room to spare. We have moved the race from the Likely Republican column to Lean Republican.
There is much more over at the link, and I suggest you check it out if you're interested. Also, visit Mongiardo's site if you're interested in giving to his campaign.
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