Taegan Goddard found this gem of a piece by CQ's Craig Crawford on who he thinks has the inside road to the White House. In "After 18 Months of Watching, It’s Time to Predict", Crawford writes this:

It’s John Kerry’s to lose.

No flip-flopping here. I think the Democratic nominee will win the presidential election on Nov. 2. I don’t even think it will take weeks of recounting to confirm this.

[...]

Putting Kerry’s clumsy campaign style aside, I am predicting his victory based on the overwhelming mood for change I’ve seen around the country.

I could see this mood in the nods of agreement in an airport lounge recently as a television news clip showed Kerry saying the country needs “a fresh start.” This could be the most powerful phrase in Kerry’s arsenal during the closing days.

Calling for “a fresh start” sounds like a phrase that was poll tested with a battery of focus groups, which is why it works. It is a simple notion conveyed by simple words.

The need for a fresh start is the least provocative argument that Kerry offers for replacing Bush after one term, and yet it might be the most persuasive. Kerry’s more provocative language sets the bar too high for voters to come his way.

It's a great read and I recommend you check out the rest of it.