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Friday, October 29, 2004

Final Oregon poll shows Kerry with substantial lead

From KATU, Portland's ABC affiliate:

A new KATU News and Oregonian poll is showing that Senator Kerry is extending his lead over President Bush in Oregon.

The exclusive poll shows Kerry with support from 49 percent of likely voters compared with the President's 43 percent with 8 percent undecided.

The gap between the two men has grown since Hibbitt's last poll in September where Kerry held a narrow lead of 2 points.

KATU Political Analyst Tim Hibbitts says the numbers are more solid than the ones from September because 45 percent of eligible voters have already turned in their ballot. [emphasis added]
The poll, taken by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall, Inc. October 25-27 had a sample of 608 RV and a MoE of +/- 4.1%. The breakdown was 43% D, 40% R, and 17% I, which I think underestimates independents, but I'm no professional pollster like Tim Hibbitts.

There's more as well within the internals:

Right track/wrong track for the country

Right 37%
Wrong 54%
Governor Ted Kulongoski's approval ratings

Excellent 4%
Pretty good 55%
Not too good 14%
Poor 14%
Secretary of State race

Democrat Bill Bradbury (i) 54%
Republican Betsy Close 31%
Libertarian Richard Morley 2%
Measure 33 (Expanding medicinal marijuana law)

Yes 34%
No 56%
Measure 34 (Balancing conservation with timber)

Yes 35%
No 48%
Measure 35 (Limiting medical malpractice lawsuits)

Yes 49%
No 41%
Measure 36 (Banning gay marriage)

Yes 50%
No 46%
Measure 37 (Abolishing land usage laws)

Yes 44%
No 40%
Measure 38 (Abolishing SAIF [statewide reinsurance])

Yes 30%
No 54%
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