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Sunday, October 24, 2004

Is Virginia still in play?

Two articles in today's Washington Post by Michael D. Shear seem to indicate as much. Although no Democrat has garnered Virginia's electoral votes since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 (Clinton came close in 1996), it appears as though the race might be tighter than history would otherwise indicate. In "Kerry Campaign Renews Attention, Money in Va.", Shears writes as follows:

Leaders of Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry's national campaign have decided to spend an additional $50,000 in Virginia, signaling that they have not given up all hope of winning the state.

Kerry's campaign largely abandoned Virginia this month after investing almost $2 million this summer on television ads and a statewide staff. The campaign's state director and spokesman were sent to states considered more competitive, leaving the campaign exclusively to state party workers.

[...]

"We believe we can win Virginia," said Lawrence H. Framme III, chairman of Kerry's campaign in the state.

[...]

Aides to Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) said that the state's popular chief executive is not convinced that Republicans have a lock on the state's 13 electoral votes, despite Democrats not winning them since 1964.

Mary A. "Mame" Reiley, Warner's chief political strategist, said that last week, Warner called Steve Elmendorf, Kerry's deputy campaign manager, and asked for $25,000 to try to secure a long-shot win. Elmendorf doubled the amount, Reiley said.
The Democrats are not only moving money into the commonwealth. Shears also pens an article entitled "In Va., Activists Sizzling With Election Fever" that indicates the ground war in Virginia is gearing up on both sides. He reports thusly:

Pollsters have all but given Virginia's 13 electoral votes to President Bush. Pundits say none of the state's congressional campaigns is likely to produce an upset Nov. 2. And there are no statewide races to pique a voter's interest in going to the polls.

But try telling any of that to the armies of volunteers that both parties have assembled for a final get-out-the-vote push as the 2004 campaign sprints toward Election Day.

Across the state, and especially in vote-rich Northern Virginia, thousands of union members, teachers, party activists, churchgoers, veterans and college students will spend the next nine days knocking on doors and punching in telephone numbers in an all-out effort to get their supporters to the polls.
I like this jem of a metaphor that a Kerry campaign official came up with:

Virginia Democrats, meanwhile, say they have not given up hope that a miracle could happen in the commonwealth on behalf of their nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.). They say the state is trending away from the Republicans, and they claim an edge in the tens of thousands of newly registered voters.

"Would it be like the Red Sox winning the American League pennant? Yeah," said Eric Graves, director of the Democratic-leaning Virginia Grassroots Coalition. "But I think it's possible."
Overall, if there is a slight breeze this year towards Kerry, it looks like history might be rewritten and Virginia will go blue.
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