The latest survey conducted at Ohio University's Scripps Survey Research Center offers a rare glimpse into the extremely close 2004 presidential race and the impact that different assumptions about likely voters have on survey results.

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At this broadest level of public opinion research, President Bush is doing poorly. Only 43 percent approve of the job he has done as president and 53 percent say it's "time for someone new" when asked, "Would you like to see President Bush be re-elected to a second term?"

Among this vast group, Kerry is trouncing Bush 50 percent to 44 percent. (Six percent are either undecided or support a third party candidate like Ralph Nader.)

But registered voters are an important and quite different subgroup of America's residents. Poll respondents were asked: "Are you currently registered to vote at the address where you now live?" One out of seven respondents answered "No" to this. Registered voters tend to be older than average, are more likely to have children and more likely to own their own homes.

Among 867 registered voters in the survey, the race tightens slightly with Kerry at 50 percent and Bush at 45 percent.

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 6:21 PM | Basie! Home