Tom Loftus writes up the Louisville Courier-Journal's newest poll of Kentucky in this morning's paper. The exciting news is written up in an article entitled "Mongiardo gains ground on Bunning", and Loftus leads as follows:

The U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo and Republican Sen. Jim Bunning appears to have tightened to 6 percentage points, according to a new Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

A similar poll taken in September showed Bunning was ahead by 17 points.

The new poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, shows 49 percent of likely voters would vote for Bunning, 43 percent prefer Mongiardo and 9 percent were undecided.

Because the results are within the poll's margin of error — plus or minus 3.7 percentage points — Bunning may not be definitely ahead. It also means Bunning could have a larger lead.

The poll questioned 690 registered voters who said they definitely or probably would vote in the Nov. 2 general election.

Compared to that poll, the Bluegrass Poll taken Sept. 10-15 showed 51 percent of voters supported Bunning, 34 percent were for Mongiardo and 15 percent were undecided.

Right now, the race is within the margin of error--among likely voters, a model that traditionally favors Republicans. The registered voter numbers, which were not published in this article, are doubtless better for Mongiardo. There are better numbers published in the poll as well, though.

The poll asked respondents which candidate they would vote for if the election were held today.

To that question, 45 percent said Bunning, 39 percent said Mongiardo and 16 percent said they were undecided.

When undecided voters were asked which way they leaned, Bunning's total increased to 49 percent, and Mongiardo's to 43 percent.

Wow. Bunning is at 45% without leaners.

Mongiardo's name recognition has soared during the past month, according to the poll.

In the September poll, only 37 percent of likely voters said they had ever read or heard anything about Mongiardo. In the poll taken last week, 77 percent of likely voters said they had heard or read something about Mongiardo.

Of those familiar with Mongiardo, 43 percent said they had a favorable impression, 26 percent said they had an unfavorable impression about him, and 30 percent were undecided.

Bunning's name recognition also climbed during the period from 83 percent to 91 percent. Of those who had heard or read about him, 44 had a favorable impression, 33 percent unfavorable, and 23 percent were undecided.

In the September Bluegrass Poll, Bunning's ratio was 50 percent favorable to 21 percent unfavorable.

Not only are Bunning's favorable numbers falling, Mongiardo's are now even with Bunning, a spectacular feat for a man who was only known by 37 percent of the electorate a month ago.

Kentucky is turning out to be one of the key raced to watch this year, and I'll definitely be following it and writing about it for the remainder of the campaign season.