This week's Economist/You Gov poll has just come out and it continuews to have more good news for John Kerry. The poll was conducted October 18-20, with 3125 respondents ("Registered to vote": 2747, "Will definitely vote": 2535), and the MoE is +/- 2%.

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else?

Total; Def to vote (Last week, Two Weeks ago)
George Bush 46% (46, 46); 47% (47, 47)
John Kerry 48% (47, 45); 48% (47, 46)
Ralph Nader 1% (1, 2); 1% (1, 1)
Someone else 2% 2%
Would not vote 0% 0%
Don't know 3% 2%

As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2?

(Total, Def to vote)
George W Bush 46% 47%
John F Kerry 49% 49%
Ralph Nader 1% 1%
Someone else 3% 3%
Not vote at all 1% 0%

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

(Total, Def to vote)
Satisfied 39% 41%
Dissatisfied 57% 56%
Don't know 4% 2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

(Total, Def to vote)
Approve 43% 45%
Disapprove 52% 52%
Don't know 5% 3%

Who would you prefer to be in control of the CONGRESS after the next election?

(Total, Def to vote)
Democrats 44% 47%
Republicans 38% 40%
Don't Know 18% 13%

Kerry's support among registered voters over the past two weeks has increased by 3 points, equalling the bounce he received following his convention in this poll. To provide some perspective, Bush's convention bounce was only two points (his lead came from Kerry's loss of support following the SBVf"T" ads).

Equally astonishing is the substantial lead the Democrats now hold in the generic congressional ballot. While it's true that most races are local and that politicians such as Arlen Specter and Tom Daschle receive much of their support from the opposing party, it is nonetheless amazing that the Dems hold a 6 point lead among registered voters and a 7 point lead among definite voters (Democrats usually do more poorly under "likely" or "definite" voter models).

If there is indeed a national trend towards Congressional Democrats, close Senatorial races such as Oklahoma, Colorado, Alaska, and Kentucky could be affected, netting Democrats seats, and the Democrats will be more likely to retain control of seats in South Dakota, Florida, and even South Carolina. What is more, the Democrats could overcome Tom DeLay's seat stealing plan in Texas and win back the House for the first time in a decade (though that's less likely than retaking the Senate).

Overall, though, there's a lot of good news to report out of this poll and you should pass it on to your skeptical friends who are too impressed by Gallup.