With the number of days before the presidential election dwindling down to single digits, a new NEWSWEEK poll finds President George W. Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry running in an ever tighter race. The poll of 1,008 registered voters, including 880 likely voters—conducted Thursday and Friday—finds President Bush’s lead in last week’s NEWSWEEK poll has evaporated. At the same time, Sen. Kerry still hasn’t been able to close the deal with voters.

In the national horserace, Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards are tied 46 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. Ralph Nader and his running mate Peter Camejo, on the ballot in only 34 states and Washington DC, receive 2 percent of the vote. Six percent of registered voters are undecided. Among likely voters, the Bush-Cheney ticket leads 48 percent to 46 percent for Kerry-Edwards, with 1 percent for Nader-Camejo and 5 percent undecided. In last week’s poll (Oct. 14-15), Bush-Cheney led 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters, and 50 percent to 44 among likely voters. This week’s poll cuts the president’s lead among likely vot­ers by more than half, well within the plus or minus 3-point margin of error.

In a two-way trial heat, excluding Nad­er, the race is even tighter. Among regis­tered voters, Kerry-Edwards and Bush-Ch­eney both receive 47 percent. Among likely voters, Bush-Cheney leads by just one point, 48 to 47 percent. In last week’s poll, Bush-Cheney led 48 to 47 percent among registered voters and 50 to 45 among likely voters. Moreover, all signs point to continu­ing voter volatility between now and Elec­tion Day. Though only 6 percent of regis­tered voters (and 5 percent of likely voters) are undecided , 13 percent of registered vot­ers 9 percent of Bush-Cheney supporters and 12 percent of Kerry-Edwards support­ers—say they have not yet “made up their mind” about whom to vote for. (That com­pares to 19 percent at this point in 2000, 21 percent in 1996, and 27 percent in 1992.) With so few “persuadables” and with both campaigns desperate to sway (or scare) them their way, brace yourself for one of the nastiest weeks in American politics.And the fighting will likely fol­low voters right into their polling stations. [Emphasis added]

Posted by: Jonathan Singer / 8:58 AM | Basie! Home