For those of us who have been following the Presidential race in Oregon over the past few months, it has been evident all summer and fall that John Kerry would easily win the state despite all of the President's money and visits. Even though most of the pundits have tried to tell us that Oregon was a battleground state, I never believed it, though I was glad the Bushies did and decided to unload resources into the state. It appears as though Karl Rove has changed his mind on the Beaver state, however, after wasting countless millions trying to pry it from the Dems.

The Oregonian's Jeff Mapes has a brilliantly titled article on the front page of today's paper that should dispel any notions of a Bush victory. In "As Kerry stakes out lead in state, both campaigns scale back efforts", he writes thusly:

Oregon is still a swing state in the presidential race, but it no longer appears to be a toss-up.

Most polls show that Democrat Sen. John Kerry has carved a clear lead in Oregon, and both campaigns reportedly have reduced television advertising in the state. And there is a good possibility that neither Kerry nor President Bush will be back in the state before the Nov. 2 election.

Kerry campaign strategists are confident enough about Oregon that they didn't include the state on a two-day Western swing Kerry is completing today. Instead, Kerry campaigned Friday in Reno, Nev., and is scheduled to hold rallies today in New Mexico and Colorado

If you recall in 2000, Al Gore was forced to come back to Portland in the waning days of the campaign to attempt to woo Nader voters. Although Gore was indeed successful, winning the state by about 6,000 votes, the fact that he had to divert drastically needed funds and time to Oregon from more important swing states may have cost him the election.

Mapes continues by looking at the state's political landscape:

"From my point of view, it's not impossible that Bush could win Oregon," said Tim Hibbitts, an independent Portland pollster, "but it would be a stretch."

In part, Democrats appear to have gotten a boost from their more successful effort to register new voters. County-by-county figures compiled by The Oregonian show Democrats have a 69,000-vote registration edge, up from about 51,000 in May. In addition, there's been a big increase in the number of independents, who also tend to skew Democratic in their voting.

Although many analysts and more importantly political writers do not understand that increases in voter registration for the Demcorats will have a big effect upon this race, Mapes and Hibbitts get it right. Mapes brings up 2000 and its effects on Oregon's political landscape.

Oregon has gone Democratic in the past four presidential elections, although Democrat Al Gore took the state by just 6,765 votes four years ago. That encouraged Republicans to put millions of dollars into the state this year in the form of advertising and an extensive get-out-the-vote campaign.

Democrats responded with their own major effort, and several independent groups allied with the Democrats also launched significant campaigns in the state.

Hibbitts said the 2000 race wouldn't have been as close if Green Party nominee Ralph Nader hadn't taken 5 percent of the vote. This year, Nader didn't qualify for the Oregon ballot.

Mapes and Hibbitts clearly recognize that the efforts of the DNC, ACT and other groups to add to the Democrats' lead in the state will doubtless enable Kerry to win handily in the state.

Mapes then shows that the effects of these changes are already being felt inside the state.

Paige Richardson, Kerry's campaign manager in Oregon, said Bush's standing in the state has been hurt by the continued high unemployment and widespread voter doubts about the war in Iraq.

She said the campaign's polls show Kerry leading in Oregon and that she didn't think it was necessary for the candidate to visit again.

"We told them we can win without you coming," she said. "Let's put our resources where they need to be."

Richardson said the Bush campaign and the Republican National Committee had been spending as much as $500,000 a week on television advertising in Oregon, but cut it in the past week to about $170,000. She said the Kerry campaign also scaled back after seeing the Bush reductions.

Those numbers could not be independently confirmed Friday. Schmitt said only that the Bush campaign was continuing to "advertise at a competitive level" and that the president's support for lower taxes was particularly popular in Oregon.

Overall, this is great news for John Kerry as one more "swing state" moves into his column and he can now focus on winning Florida and Ohio.