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Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Predicting the Electoral College
One site mentioned is by Princeton Professor Sam Wang which currently predicts a Democratic victory when allocating undecided voters: Kerry 307, Bush 231.Taegan Goddard, Political Wire
Another site by Cal State's Matthew Hubbard, which "chomps through 16.8 million possibilities in the Electoral College in 72 seconds," also predicts a Kerry victory. His most recent prediction gives Kerry a 73.9% chance of reaching the winning threshold of 270 electoral votes, with Bush at 24.6%. He rated the probability of a 269-269 tie at 1.6%.
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