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Friday, October 29, 2004

Slate has Kerry up 272-266

This is the first time Slate has had Kerry leading in the Electoral College, so it's relatively big news.

The addition of tonight's polls to current state data puts Kerry in strong position to take the election. To varying degrees, he appears to have a firmer grip on Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He has a good shot at Iowa and an excellent shot at Florida. Michigan could be a problem, but the evidence for a Kerry win in Florida is much better than the evidence for a Bush win in Michigan, and the payoff is bigger. Maybe the Bin Laden video can put the president back on top.
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