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Sunday, October 31, 2004
So many polls, so little time
Pew Research (October 27-30)
Registered Voters
Bush 45
Kerry 46
LikelyVotersCNN/USA Today/Gallup (October 29-31)
Bush 48
Kerry 45
Registered Voters
Bush 46
Kerry 48
LikelyVotersNBC/Wall Street Journal (October 29-31)
Bush 49
Kerry 47
Likely VotersRasmussen Reports
Bush 48
Kerry 47
Two days to go and the race for the White House remains excruciatingly close. To this point, the bin Laden video has had no measurable impact on the race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.1% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.1%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
When leaners are included, it's Bush 48.8% Kerry 48.2%. Other candidates attract 1.2% and 1.8% are not sure (half of those who are not sure probably won't vote).
Election 2004 has been amazingly stable and close. Senator Kerry has been ahead on just one day since August 23 but the President's "lead" has typically been just one or two points. That has continued into the final weekend of the campaign.
The tight race goes back even further. Our first full polling sample completed after Senator Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday found the candidates just half-a-point apart (at that time Kerry 45.8% to Bush 45.3%). Eight months and hundreds of millions of campaign dollars later, it's still too close to call.
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