Jonathan Singer: Some state polling

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Some state polling

These from SurveyUSA:

Oregon: Women propel Kerry to 9-pt advantage over Bush

10-pt swing to Democrats compared to poll taken before 1st debate ... 7 electoral votes at stake

In an election for President in Oregon today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 53% to 44%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 628 likely voters conducted 10/9 - 10/11.
3 wks ago, before debates, Bush led by 1 in or. Kerry is up 6, Bush down 4. Surveyusa post-debate polls in Oregon show Kerry won 1st 2 prez debates & Edwards won VP clash.
3 wks ago, Bush led by 3 among males, now leads by 2. Then, Bush & Kerry were tied among females, now Kerry is up 19 pts among females. Gender gap up from 3 to 21 pts.
3 wks ago, Kerry led by 18 among moderates, now 36. Then, Bush led by 9 in military HH's. Now Kerry leads by 7.
Bush leads by 4 in suburban OR & by 9 in rural OR. Kerry leads by 41 pts in urban OR.

SC: Tenenbaum within striking distance of DeMint, trails by 3

In 2000, Bush carried SC by 16 pts ... Leads today by 13 pts ... 8 electoral votes

In an election in SC today, the day of the 3rd Presidential debate & 10 days after the most recent U.S. Senate debate in SC, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 55% to 42% & Republican Jim DeMint barely hangs on to defeat Democrat Inez Tenenbaum 46% to 43%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 563 likely voters, conducted 10/10 - 10/12.
8 wks ago, DeMint led by 13. 3 wks ago, he led by 12, now by 3. In past 3 wks, DeMint has lost 5, Tenenbaum has gained 4, a 9-pt swing. Then: DeMint led by 25 among males, now 12. Then Tenenbaum led by 1 among females, now 5. 14% of Bush voters cross-over.
3 wks ago, at the peak of Bush's post convention & swift-boat bounce, Bush led by 20 in SC, now 13. Bush now up 23 among men, up 5 among women. Indys break 3:2 for Bush.

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