72 hours till votes are counted, Nevada tied; 5 ECV up for grabs

Half of likely voters have already voted ... Among all likely voters: it's 49% to 49%

• In an election for President in NV today, George W Bush & John Kerry tie at 49%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 535 likely voters conducted 10/28 - 10/29.
  
• 2 wks ago, Bush led by 7 in NV. Since then, Kerry is up 4, Bush is down 3. In 6 identical tracking polls over 3 months, Kerry has led only once, on 7/23.
  
• Half of those in today's likely voter pool have already voted. Of them, Kerry leads 50% to 48%. Of those who have not yet voted, but SurveyUSA believes will vote on Election Day, Bush leads 50% to 47%. When the 2 groups are combined, it's a tie.
  
• Bush leads by 10 among white voters. Minority turnout will decide who carries state.

JS: The best news out of this poll is that Kerry is leading among those who have already voted (though within the margin of error)--a vote in the bank is much better than a possible or even probable vote.

Virginia, 3 days to go: Kerry too close to Bush for GOP's comfort

13 electoral votes at stake, 72 hours to go ... Bush 51%, Kerry 47%

• In an election for president in VA today, 3 days to the vote, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 51% to 47%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 606 likely voters 10/27-10/29.
  
• In 5 tracking polls since July, Bush has led by 4 pts 3 times, led by 5 pts once, & only led by 11 once, at peak of Swift-Boat controversy. In 2000, bush won VA by 8.
  
• Kerry leads by 10 pts in NE VA, leads by 2 in SE VA. Bush leads by 9 in central VA, leads by 21 in the Shenandoah. Kerry up 19 in urban VA, Bush up 10 in suburban VA.
  
• Bush up 20 among whites, Kerry up 58 among blacks. Bush holds 94% of GOP base. Kerry holds 93% of Democrat base. Independents break for Kerry 51% to 45%.

JS: Although Bush is over the important 50% mark, Kerry is within striking range, and if Kerry gets a late national surge, look for Virginia to go blue.

In the end, New Jersey no longer a toss-up; Democrats get 15 ECV

72 hours till polls open ... Kerry 54%, Bush 42%

• In an election for president in NJ today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 54% to 42%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 794 likely voters conducted 10/27 - 10/29.
  6 wks ago, during peak of Swift-Boat campaign, Bush led in NJ by 4. 4 wks ago, Kerry led by 5. 2 wks ago, Kerry led by 8. At the wire, 72 hrs to go, Kerry leads by 12.
  
• Kerry leads by 43 pts among those earning < $40k/yr. Bush & Kerry tie among those earning > $80k/yr. Kerry leads by 43 in urban NJ. Kerry leads by 10 in suburban NJ.
  
• Bush leads by 2 among whites. Kerry leads by 63 among blacks. Kerry up 6 among males, up 19 among females. Kerry up 29 among youngest voters. Up 5 among oldest voters.

JS: Kerry's lead is large and he is trending up in the Garden State. Looks like it will be no contest.

At the wire, Maryland is still Kerryland; Dems hold 10 ECV

72 hrs to go ... Kerry leads by 11 ... In 2000, Gore won by 16

• In an election for President in MD today, 3 days to the vote, John Kerry beats George W Bush 54% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 607 likely voters 10/27-10/29.
  
• 6 wks ago, at peak of Swift-Boat controversy, Bush & Kerry were tied in MD. 3 wks ago, Kerry led by 15. At the finish line, Kerry leads by 11. 10 electoral votes blue.
  
• Bush leads by 13 pts among white voters. Kerry leads by 73 pts among black voters.
  
• Kerry leads by 30 among most educated voters. Bush & Kerry tie among least educated.
  
• Bush leads by 3 among those who attend church regularly. Kerry leads by 25 among those who attend church rarely. 76% of pro-life voters back Bush. 71% of pro-choice voters back Kerry. Kerry leads by 18 pts among independents & by 20 among moderates.

JS: The trend isn't great, but it looks like Kerry should take the state easily (as expected).

Repubs seize Indiana statehouse; Bush & Bayh cruise to easy wins

Bush captures 11 ECV ... Daniels defeats incumbent Kernan for Governor

• In an election today in Indiana, George W Bush defeats John Kerry, GOP challenger Mitch Daniels unseats Dem incumbent Joe Kernan for Governor, & incumbent Dem Senator Evan Bayh tops GOP Marvin Scott, according to SurveyUSA poll of 589 LV 10/27 - 10/29.
  
• Bush defeats Kerry by 19 today, 58% to 39%, gets 11 ECV. Bush won by 16 in 2000.
  
• Bayh defeats Scott by 27 today, 61% to 34%. 41% of Bush voters split ticket for Bayh.
  
• 3 wks ago, in identical tracking poll, Daniels & Kernan were effectively tied. Since then, daniels is up 4 to 52%, Kernan is down 3 to 44%. 8-pt GOP lead, 72 hrs to go.
  
• Daniels leads by 1 in northern IN, by 2 in central IN, by 11 in southern INn, by 20 in greater Indianapolis. Kernan wins urban IN by 3. Daniels wins suburban in by 14.

JS: No surprises here. Though I'd like to see Kernan win, it looks like the polling shows him at a bit of a disadvantage.

Democrats Kerry and Obama coast to easy wins in Illinois

Certain Democrat take-away for retiring Republican Fitzgerald's Senate seat

• In an election today in Illinois, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 54% to 42% & Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican Alan Keyes for U.S. Senate 66% to 27%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 665 likely voters conducted 10/27 - 10/29.
  
• 72 hrs till polls open, Kerry is up by 12 pts. Gore won the state by 12 pts in 2000.
  
• Kerry leads by 2 pts among men, but by 21 pts among women. Bush leads by 4 among whites, Kerry leads 6:1 among blacks. Bush holds 92% of GOP base. Kerry holds 91% of Democrat base. Independents break 48% to 43% for Kerry. Kerry wins the city of Chicago by 59 pts & suburban Cook by 18 pts. Bush wins collar counties by 24 pts & edges Kerry downstate by 1 pt. Statewide, suburban IL goes 49% to 47% for Bush.

JS: The big news from this poll is that KEYES HAS PULLED WITHIN 40%!!!

But seriously, both Bob Novak (super Republican) and Al Hunt predicted today that longtime incumbent GOP Congressman Phil Crane from north of Chicago will get defeated, and in my judgement the selection of Alan Keyes has a lot to do with it. Maybe Henry Hyde will also go down, though that's wishful thinking.