Al Hunt has an interesting (and free) article in today's Wall Street Journal that focuses on the relationship between job growth/loss in key swing states and the presidential race. In "State Jobless Levels Could Aid Kerry in Ohio, Bush in Florida", he writes thusly:

There are no two more fiercely contested states in the presidential sweepstakes than Florida and Ohio. A glance at the state unemployment rates, released this morning, shows why the Bush camp is slightly more hopeful about Florida and the Kerry campaign a bit more optimistic about Ohio.

The unemployment rate in the Sunshine State was 4.5% last month, well below the national average and down from 5.1% a year earlier. Both the number and the trend are encouraging to Republicans. The Florida jobless rate at the end of the Clinton administration was 3.8%.

In Ohio, the jobless rate improved slightly from 6.3% last month but still hovers at 6%, well above the national average and virtually the same as a year before. This is up sharply from the 3.9% unemployment rate in Ohio when George W. Bush took office.

The race is exceedingly close in both these battleground states, but the Kerry economic pitch seems to resonate more in Ohio. One recent Democratic survey there found almost 70% of Ohio residents thought the country was on the wrong track.

Reuters also reports this afternoon that job numbers generally do not look good for the President. Reuters writes this under the headline "Swing States Show 2,800 Net Job Loss":

Five key states in the U.S. presidential election lost 37,800 jobs in September, offsetting the gains posted by other states considered critical in the election now 11 days away.

The other nine critical states gained 35,000 jobs in September, the U.S. Labor Department said on Friday in its last monthly summary on labor conditions in the 50 states before the Nov. 2 presidential election.

Michigan posted the largest decline among swing states, losing 14,800 jobs between August and September. Florida followed with a decline of 9,500 jobs. Minnesota, Oregon and Wisconsin also lost jobs.

It will be interesting to see how these numbers will play out in the key states. I'll keep an eye out for coverage of the numbers in Oregon and pass on the reporting.