Jonathan Singer: SurveyUSA polls looking great for JK

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SurveyUSA polls looking great for JK

No Republican has been elected without Ohio; Kerry leads by 3

1 week to Election Day ... 20 electoral votes at stake ... Kerry 50%, Bush 47%

In an election for President in Ohio today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 50% to 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 831 likely voters conducted 10/23 - 10/25.
3 wks ago, Kerry led by 1 pt. 1 wk ago, Kerry led by 2 pts. Today, Kerry leads by 3.
Bush leads by 3 among men. Kerry leads by 8 among women. Bush leads by 9 among voters age 35 to 49. Kerry leads among all other age groups. Bush leads by 7 among whites. Kerry leads by 74 among blacks. Bush holds 90% of GOP base. Kerry holds 88% of Dem base. Indys break 54% to 40% for Kerry. Kerry leads in union HH's by 24 pts. Bush leads in non-union HH's by 7. Kerry up 18 pts among those voters earning < $40k/yr.
GOP incumbent Senator George Voinovich tops Democrat Eric Fingerhut 59% to 33% today.

PA: Suburbs swing to Kerry who now leads by 8; Specter up by 13

1 wk to Election Day ... 21 electoral votes at stake ... Kerry 53%, Bush 45%

In an election in PA today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush 53% to 45% & incumbent GOP Senator Arlen Specter defeats Dem Jim Hoeffel & Constitutionist Jim Clymer 51% to 38% to 6%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 803 likely voters conducted 10/23 - 10/25.
1 wk ago, Specter led by 7, now 13. Specter is up 3, Hoeffel is down 3. Clymer flat.
1 wk ago, Kerry led by 6, today by 8. Bush had led in suburban PA by 4, today Kerry leads by 5, a 9-pt Democrat swing. Bush had led by 2 in non-military HH's, now Kerry leads by 15. Bush had led by 3 in non-union HH's, now Kerry leads by 3. Kerry had led by 1 among PA males, now leads by 4. Kerry had led by 4 among voters age 65+, Kerry now leads by 16 among voters age 65+. Bush had led by 4 among whites, now up by 1.

Bush tightens grip on MO; drags Repub Blunt to victory with him

1 wk to Election Day ... 11 ECV at stake ... Bush 52%, Kerry 45%

In an election today in Missouri, 1 week to the vote, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 52% to 45%, Republican Matt Blunt defeats Democrat Claire McCaskill for Governor 52% to 44%, & incumbent GOP senator Kit Bond defeats Democrat Nancy Farmer 60% to 34%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 680 likely voters conducted 10/23 - 10/25.
1 wk ago, in tracking poll, Bush led by 6, now 7. 1 wk ago, Blunt led by 6, now 8.
Kerry leads by 23 in union HH's. Bush leads by 17 in non-union HH's. Bush leads by 4 in KC, by 35 in the Ozarks & by 38 in central MO. Kerry leads in St Louis by 8.
Blunt leads by 36 in Ozarks & central MO. McCaskill leads by 3 in KC & by 4 in STL.

Arkansas, 7 days to the election: Bush still above 50%, leads by 6

In 2000, Bush won Arkansas 51% to 46% ... Leads today 51% to 45% ... 6 ECV

In an election in Arkansas today, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 51% to 45% & incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln is re-elected to US Senate, topping GOP challenger Jim Holt 57% to 38%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 649 likely voters 10/23 - 10/25.
1 wk ago, in identical tracking poll, Bush led by 5, now by 6. Bush leads among voters 35 to 64. Kerry leads among younger & older voters. Bush leads by 20 among whites, trails by 71 among blacks. Bush holds 92% of GOP base. Kerry holds 82% of Dem base (13% of Dems cross-over to Bush). Indys break 59% to 36% for Bush.
Bush leads in all income groups, leads in both military & non-military HH's, leads with both men & women. Kerry leads among moderates & those who attend church rarely.

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