To support this site, please make your purchases through my Amazon link.
Monday, October 18, 2004
SUSA Pres/Sen polling from FL, PA, NC, AR
Florida, 15 days to the election: President & U.S. Senate races tied
Kerry 50%, Bush 49% ... Martinez 49%, Castor 47%
15 days to election: Kerry 51%, Bush 45% ... Specter 48%, Hoeffel 41%, Clymer 6%
15 electoral votes at stake & opportunity for GOP pick-up in U.S. Senate
Debates give Kerry a little help in Arkansas, but Bush still up 5
15 days to the election: Bush 51%,Kerry 46% ... Lincoln 57%, Holt 38%
Kerry 50%, Bush 49% ... Martinez 49%, Castor 47%
- In an election in Florida today, George W Bush & John Kerry tie in fight for 27 ECV & Republican Mel Martinez & Democrat Betty Castor tie in fight for Bob Graham's U.S. Senate seat, according to SurveyUSA poll of 601 likely voters conducted 10/15-10/17.
- 2 wks ago, in identical tracking poll taken before 2nd & 3rd presidential debates, Bush led by 5 in FL. Today it's Kerry 50%, Bush 49%, within the margin of error.
- 2 wks ago, in identical tracking poll, Martinez led by 4. Today it's Martinez 49%, Castor 47%, still a slight Martinez edge, but close enough to be effectively tied.
- Bush had led by 20 among males, now 9. Kerry had led by 12 in SE FL, now leads by 23.
15 days to election: Kerry 51%, Bush 45% ... Specter 48%, Hoeffel 41%, Clymer 6%
- In an election in PA today, John Kerry defeats George W Bush to capture 21 ECV & incumbent Republican Arlen Specter defeats Democrat Joe Hoeffel & Constitutionist Jim Clymer, according to SurveyUSA poll of 619 likely voters conducted 10/15 - 10/17.
- Kerry leads 51% to 45% today, up 4 pts from identical tracking poll 10/6.
- Specter leads 48% to 41% to 6% today. Caution: Clymer added to 10/18 questionnaire; had not been named previously (though "other" was a choice). Specter drop from +19 to +7 in 12 days may be exaggerated because of change in question wording. Note: Clymer is not siphoning conservatives; specter had 70% of conservatives on 10/6, has 69% today. Movement in race is among moderates. Specter had been up 10, now down 9.
15 electoral votes at stake & opportunity for GOP pick-up in U.S. Senate
- In an election in NC today, 15 days to election, George W Bush defeats John Kerry, Democrat Mike Easley defeats Patrick Ballantine for Governor & Republican Richard Burr edges incumbent Democrat Erskine Bowles for U.S. Senate (to fill John Edwards seat), according to SurveyUSA poll of 627 likely voters conducted 10/15 - 10/17.
- 2 wks ago, in identical tracking poll, Bush led by 7, now 3. 4-pt move to Democrats.
- 2 wks ago, in identical tracking poll, Easley led by 18, now 12. 6-pt move to GOP.
- 2 wks ago, Bowles led by 1, now trails by 2 (both within margin). 3-pt move to GOP.
- Bowles had led by 6 among females, now trails by 4. Bowles had led by 18 in HH's earning <$40k/yr, now trails by 5. Bowles had led south & east, now trails there.
Debates give Kerry a little help in Arkansas, but Bush still up 5
15 days to the election: Bush 51%,Kerry 46% ... Lincoln 57%, Holt 38%
- In an election in Arkansas today, George W Bush defeats John Kerry 51% to 46% & Democrat incumbent U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln defeats GOP challenger Jim Holt 57% to 38%, according to SurveyUSA poll of 617 likely voters conducted 10/15 - 10/17.
- 18 days ago, before 1st of 3 debates, Bush led by 9 in AR, now 5. Bush leads by 17 among whites, trails by 73 among blacks. Bush holds 92% of GOP base. Kerry holds 83% of Democrat base; 14% of Democrats cross-over for Bush. Bush leads by 15 among Indys.
- Kerry up by 16 in HH's earning < $40k/yr; Bush up by 35 in HH's earning > $80k/yr.
- Kerry leads by 1 pt in urban & rural Arkansas, but Bush up by 28 pts in the suburbs.
- Lincoln had been up 14, now is up 19. Lincoln up 9 among males, up 27 among females.
To support this site, please make your DVD, music, book and electronics purchases through my Amazon link.
